EFL TrophyFull time

Predictions graded

AFC Wimbledon1Arsenal U212

HT 0–0Tue 27 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 15–22On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Wimbledon's home solidity meets an Arsenal U21 side with one away win in nine, though the visitors did win at Leyton Orient in this competition.

A tight, low-scoring game looks likeliest, with the home side hard to beat but rarely prolific. None of the quoted prices offers anything: Wimbledon to win or draw at 1.18, at least two goals at 1.10, Arsenal U21 to score at 1.38 or a first-half goal at 1.20.

Context

Wimbledon have kept four clean sheets in six home matches and conceded 0.67 goals per game, which makes them hard to break down on their own ground. They have also scored only 0.5 goals per home game across the same six matches, so the defensive record comes with a low output at the other end. A single-goal game fits both numbers.
- Six home matches tracked from 22 August to 24 October 2026: W2 D3 L1, four clean sheets, 0.67 goals conceded per game.
The away record describes a side that concedes regularly: 2.44 goals per game across nine away matches, with both teams scoring in seven of them. Wimbledon's 0.5 goals per home game is the counterweight, so the visitors' defensive numbers do not by themselves promise a high-scoring tie. The sample is nine matches, not a season-long rate.
- Nine away matches tracked from 6 March to 24 October 2026: W1 D3 L5, both teams scored in seven, 2.44 goals conceded per game.
The only 2026-27 EFL Trophy match in the sample was a 2-1 win at Leyton Orient on 15 September, secured with nine shots to the hosts' 28, three corners to nine and five shots on target to ten. It shows the under-21 side can take this competition's points without controlling play. One match is a thin basis for repeating that pattern.
- 15 September 2026, EFL Trophy: Leyton Orient 1-2 Arsenal U21; shots 28-9, shots on target 10-5, corners 9-3.
The 17 October League One trip to Sheffield Wednesday ended 5-0, with Wimbledon taking seven shots to 25 and none on target to the hosts' eleven. It is the heaviest result in the tracked sample and sits alongside much tighter home form. Different competition, different opponent and a small sample keep it from defining this tie.
- 17 October 2026, League One: Sheffield Wednesday 5-0 AFC Wimbledon; shots 25-7, shots on target 11-0.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

AFC Wimbledon or Draw

1.18fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 84.7%

−16.7ppshort

Wimbledon's home solidity and Arsenal U21's poor away record make the home side hard to beat.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.10fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 90.9%

−18.9ppshort

Both recent records point to at least two goals, with Arsenal U21's away games especially open.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Arsenal U21 over 0.5

1.38fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 72.5%

−5.5ppshort

Arsenal U21 usually find at least one goal on the road, even in defeat.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Wimbledon's home solidity and Arsenal U21's poor away record make the home side hard to beat.
- AFC Wimbledon's home split: W2 D3 L1 in six home matches, conceding 0.67 goals per game.
- Arsenal U21's away split: W1 D3 L5 in nine away matches, conceding 2.44 goals per game.
- AFC Wimbledon lost only one of six home matches in the tracked sample.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAFC Wimbledon or DrawEstimated chance68%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Both recent records point to at least two goals, with Arsenal U21's away games especially open.
- AFC Wimbledon's last six matches produced over 1.5 goals in five.
- Arsenal U21's last six matches produced over 1.5 goals in five.
- Arsenal U21 away matches average 3.56 total goals (1.11 for, 2.44 against).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Arsenal U21 usually find at least one goal on the road, even in defeat.
- Arsenal U21 average 1.11 away goals per match.
- Arsenal U21 had both teams scoring in seven of nine away matches.
- AFC Wimbledon's home split concedes 0.67 goals per game, so clean sheets are possible.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonArsenal U21 over 0.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Arsenal U21 concede first-half goals regularly, and recent games show early scoring from both sides.
- AFC Wimbledon's home first-half split: 0.33 scored and 0.33 conceded per match.
- Arsenal U21's away first-half split: 0.44 scored and 1.00 conceded per match.
- Five of each side's last six matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wimbledon's home corner numbers and Arsenal U21's tracked matches point to a healthy total.
- AFC Wimbledon home matches average 6.5 corners for and 6.5 against.
- Arsenal U21's two tracked matches average 7.5 corners for and 6.5 against.
- AFC Wimbledon's overall matches average 5.62 corners for and 5.77 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' match profiles suggest enough shots on target, especially with Arsenal U21 conceding heavily.
- AFC Wimbledon home matches average 2.17 shots on target for and 5.17 against.
- Arsenal U21's two tracked matches average 3.5 shots on target for and 8.5 against.
- AFC Wimbledon's overall matches average 2.46 shots on target for and 5.62 against.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance74%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W3-0AFC WimbledonvArsenal U21Dec 8, 2020EFL

3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon

D1-1WycombeOct 24LEA

L0-3Mansfield TownOct 20LEA

L0-5Sheffield WednesdayOct 17LEA

L1-2PlymouthOct 10LEA

D1-1Cambridge UnitedSep 26LEA

D0-0Milton Keynes DonsSep 17LEA

W1-0DoncasterSep 12LEA

W2-0BromleySep 7LEA

L1-4Burton AlbionSep 2LEA

W1-0WiganAug 30LEA

L0-3FulhamAug 27LEA

D0-0ReadingAug 22LEA

L0-3HuddersfieldAug 15LEA

L2-3QPRAug 1FRI

L0-1WealdstoneJul 28FRI

Arsenal U21

Arsenal U21

L1-4Leicester City U21Oct 24PRE

D2-2Sunderland U21Oct 10PRE

D0-0Birmingham City U21Sep 18PRE

W2-1Leyton OrientSep 15EFL

L1-4Chelsea U21Sep 12PRE

D2-2Brighton U21Aug 31PRE

D1-1Crystal Palace U21Aug 22PRE

L1-5BarnetAug 18EFL

D1-1Boreham WoodJul 17FRI

L1-3Manchester City U21Apr 25PRE

L0-2Crystal Palace U21Apr 13PRE

W1-0West Bromwich Albion U21Apr 4PRE

L1-3Sunderland U21Mar 23PRE

L1-5Leicester City U21Mar 13PRE

D2-2Norwich City U21Mar 6PRE

Squad & Injuries

AFC Wimbledon

30 available

Attackers4

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Arsenal U21

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper2