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Predictions graded

USM Alger2Belouizdad2

HT 1–2Sat 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 13:50 · Europe/Bucharest

The Algiers derby sets USM Alger's unbeaten home run against a Belouizdad side yet to lose in the league this season.

USM Alger are the likelier winners, but three draws in the last five meetings keep a level result live. The first-half prices are the best of them: USM Alger ahead at the break at 3.2 and at least one goal before it at 1.5, with over 2.5 goals at 2.5 a thinner case.

Context

Neither club has played since the 12–13 October league round, so this derby arrives after an unusually long 11-day gap for both squads, and the league notice ties the switch directly to the two cancelled Confederation Cup ties. The pull-forward also leaves USM Alger a clear midweek before their round-eight trip to CS Constantine, which was itself shifted to 31 October. Because both clubs campaigned for the same change and both gained the same free week, treat it as a shared preparation condition rather than an edge for either side.
- The Professional League moved the round-seven derby to Saturday 24 October 2026 at 17:45, Stade 5 Juillet 1962, from the originally scheduled 29 October.
- Both clubs requested the change after their CAF Confederation Cup second-round fixtures were not played.
- Belouizdad's tie with AS Douanes was frozen by the Court of Arbitration for Sport, while USM Alger's opponent The Panthers withdrew.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Belouizdad's competitive calendar has been blank since the 12 October league win at JS El Biar, and part of that gap was spent on a wasted trip to Mauritania rather than on a match. The unresolved tie also means the squad cannot plan around a known continental date, with any rescheduled legs falling in early November alongside the league programme. The counterweight is that the postponement removed a fixture rather than adding one, so the effect is about rhythm and uncertainty rather than accumulated fatigue.
- CAS ordered CAF on 16 October to postpone the AS Douanes–CR Belouizdad double header after a Hafia FC appeal over the Mauritanian side's earlier qualification.
- Belouizdad had already arrived in Nouakchott and left without playing; the tie is expected in early November and cannot take place before 6 November.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:47 · Europe/Bucharest
A walkover deletes a two-legged tie from USM Alger's October and leaves them preparing for a top-of-table derby on league training alone, with no continental match to manage minutes around or to measure themselves against. Their opponents have an almost identical rest pattern, so the bye is a scheduling gain rather than a form signal. It also means the squad's African level has not been tested since the title-winning final, an unknown that will not be settled before the Super Cup.
- The Panthers withdrew from the CAF Confederation Cup second round because of financial constraints, sending USM Alger straight into the group stage.
- USM Alger are the reigning Confederation Cup holders.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 13:47 · Europe/Bucharest
The recent derby record tilts narrowly to USM Alger without showing dominance: the two wins came in Coupe Nationale ties, while the league meetings finished 1-1, 0-0 and 1-1. Three draws in five is why this can stay level deep into the second half, a genuine counterweight to the home side's stronger venue record.
- Last five meetings, 30 April 2025 to 2 June 2026: USM Alger 2W-3D-0L.
- Ligue 1, 2 June 2026: USM Alger 1-1 CR Belouizdad.
- Coupe Nationale wins for USM Alger in the same run: 2-1 on 30 April 2026 and 2-0 on 5 July 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
USM Alger's home record and recent derby results make them the most likely winner, but Belouizdad's stronger league form keeps this close.
- USM Alger are 6W-2D-0L at home, conceding 0.63 per game.
- Belouizdad are 4W-4D-2L away and unbeaten in their last five league games.
- USM Alger are unbeaten in the last five derbies (2 wins, 3 draws).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUSM AlgerEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.20
The read
USM Alger's home first-half scoring and defence make them the likeliest team to lead at the break.
- USM Alger home first-half goals: 1.00 for, 0.38 against.
- Belouizdad away first-half goals: 0.90 for, 0.90 against.
- USM Alger scored in the first half of four of their last six.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostUSM AlgerEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring on both sides makes a drawn half the most likely outcome.
- USM Alger home second-half total: 0.88 goals.
- Belouizdad away second-half total: 0.90 goals.
- Both teams' second-half scoring rates are low.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
USM Alger's home record and recent derby results make them the most likely winner, but Belouizdad's stronger league form keeps this close. The derby has been tight recently and both teams are hard to beat, so a draw carries a large likelihood.
- USM Alger are 6W-2D-0L at home, conceding 0.63 per game.
- Belouizdad are 4W-4D-2L away and unbeaten in their last five league games.
- USM Alger are 6W-2D-0L at home; Belouizdad are 4W-4D-2L away.
- Three of the last five derbies ended level.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUSM Alger or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
USM Alger's home first-half scoring and defence make them the likeliest team to lead at the break. The first-half scoring rates are not high enough to rule out a level break, so a draw is a major possibility.
- USM Alger home first-half goals: 1.00 for, 0.38 against.
- Belouizdad away first-half goals: 0.90 for, 0.90 against.
- USM Alger home first-half goal difference is +0.63; Belouizdad away is 0.00.
- Both teams average under one first-half goal against in these splits.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostUSM Alger or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The derby's low-scoring history and USM Alger's home defence make under 2.5 more likely.
- USM Alger home matches average 2.25 total goals; Belouizdad away matches average 2.70.
- Last five derbies averaged 1.80 goals, with four under 2.5.
- USM Alger have kept five clean sheets in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent clean-sheet records on both sides make a shutout slightly more likely than both scoring.
- USM Alger kept clean sheets in 5/15 and 4/8 at home.
- Belouizdad kept clean sheets in 6/15 and 4/10 away.
- Recent six: USM Alger three clean sheets, Belouizdad four.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams' first-half goal rates make at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- USM Alger home first-half matches average 1.38 goals.
- Belouizdad away first-half matches average 1.80 goals.
- USM Alger scored first-half goals in four of their last six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
USM Alger's low first-half concession at home makes at least one team failing to score before the break likely.
- USM Alger home first-half concession: 0.38 per game.
- Belouizdad away first-half defence: 0.90 conceded per game.
- USM Alger scored in the first half of four of their last six.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low second-half goal rates on both sides make under 1.5 the stronger outcome.
- USM Alger home second-half matches average 0.88 goals.
- Belouizdad away second-half matches average 0.90 goals.
- USM Alger concede only 0.25 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance72%

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W

D1-1USM AlgervCR BelouizdadJun 2, 2026L1

W2-1USM AlgervCR BelouizdadApr 30, 2026COU

D0-0CR BelouizdadvUSM AlgerNov 8, 2025L1

W2-0USM AlgervCR BelouizdadJul 5, 2025COU

D1-1CR BelouizdadvUSM AlgerMar 16, 2025L1

USM Alger unbeaten in 5 meetingsUSM Alger: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Ligue 1 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	USM Alger	5	3	1	1	6-3	10	WLWWD
2	Belouizdad Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)	5	4	1	0	9-5	13	WWWWD

3pt gap between teamsBelouizdad leads the league

Recent Form

USM Alger

W1-0JS SaouraOct 13L1

L0-1MB RouissetOct 8L1

W3-2Olympique AkbouSep 19L1

W2-0JS El BiarSep 10L1

D0-0KhenchelaSep 4L1

D2-2MC OranJun 6L1

D2-2Ben AknounJun 4L1

D1-1CR BelouizdadJun 2L1

L0-1MB RouissetMay 30L1

L1-2KhenchelaMay 25L1

W4-2Paradou ACMay 22L1

W1-0Olympique AkbouMay 19L1

D1-1MostaganemMay 12L1

W1-0Zamalek SCMay 9CAF

W2-1CR BelouizdadApr 30COU

Belouizdad

W3-2JS El BiarOct 12L1

W1-0KhenchelaOct 7L1

W1-0US BiskraSep 17L1

W1-0ES SetifSep 11L1

D3-3ASO ChlefSep 5L1

D0-0JS KabylieJun 5L1

D1-1USM AlgerJun 2L1

W3-1Ben AknounMay 24L1

W3-1MC OranMay 20L1

L1-3ES SetifMay 16L1

D0-0JS SaouraMay 12L1

W1-0Olympique AkbouMay 8L1

W3-1KhenchelaMay 4L1

L1-2USM AlgerApr 30COU

W3-2CS ConstantineApr 24COU

Squad & Injuries

USM Alger

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Belouizdad

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

USM Alger

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

USM Alger

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

USM Alger

Belouizdad

Squad & Injuries

USM Alger

Belouizdad