BundesligaFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Mainz2Werder Bremen3

HT 1–2Sat 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 18–17On targetOn target 8–8CornersCorners 6–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Mainz have won all three away league games and taken one point from three at home; Werder are unbeaten in five but have not won away, with Niclas Füllkrug on six Bundesliga goals.

A draw or a Werder win is the likelier outcome, and both quoted prices — draw or Werder at 2.1, Werder at 4.0 — offer something. Mainz at 1.73 does not.

Context

Six Bundesliga goals in six matchdays leave Füllkrug level with Patrik Schick at the top of the scoring chart, and Werder's recovery from 2-0 down at home to Paderborn last week came from two second-half Füllkrug goals. Thioune's side created four or five clear first-half chances in that same game without scoring, so the finishing load rests heavily on one 33-year-old forward. The recall discussion adds attention rather than a playing effect: Klopp framed it around age and long-term planning, and any decision would only come for the 9-17 November international window.
- Füllkrug has seven goals in seven competitive matches for Werder Bremen this season.
- Germany head coach Jürgen Klopp said on 21 October that Füllkrug scores 'one goal after another' but that his age of 33 has to be weighed in squad planning.
- Werder coach Daniel Thioune said on 22 October that age should not count for more than current form and described Füllkrug as possibly in the best version of himself.
- Füllkrug shares the Bundesliga scoring lead with six goals after six matchdays.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:56 · Europe/Bucharest
His read is grounded in Werder's last game, a 2-2 home draw with Paderborn in which they trailed 2-0 and needed two Füllkrug goals after wasting several clear first-half chances. Mainz have conceded three and four in their two home league defeats, so the space will arrive in transition rather than from sustained pressure, and extra bodies between the lines is the stated response. That is a plan, not a lineup: Thioune said only that changes were possible, and Werder's five-match unbeaten run contains three draws.
- Thioune said Werder must be prepared 'to withstand that intensity' and expects a physical game in Mainz.
- He described Mainz under Urs Fischer as defending in a low block, moving well with and without the ball and able to hurt opponents with long balls.
- He also addressed possible rotation in his starting XI and Werder's low goal output.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:56 · Europe/Bucharest
Stark's absence strips a recognised centre-back from a defence that has conceded twice in each of the last two league games, and it lands in a week when Werder must handle a Mainz side that concedes possession and counters with long balls. Thioune gave no return date, which leaves the replacement and the shape of the back line as the open question rather than the absence itself.
- Stark misses the game in Mainz, as confirmed at Werder's pre-match press conference on 22 October.
- Werder listed eight players unavailable for Saturday.
- The absence is muscular and no return date has been given.
- N. Stark started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:56 · Europe/Bucharest
His return restores an option in the area where Werder have been most stretched, with Stage out and the midfield reworked through the autumn. Thioune's emphasis on Lynen's reading of the game and ball recovery points at a role against a Mainz side that gives up possession and defends deep, where a six who can switch play matters. The counterpoint is fitness: a first squad appearance after eight weeks out, with the coach explicitly asking for patience, is not the same as a start.
- Lynen is back in the squad for the first time since the game at Freiburg on 30 August.
- He had been out with pelvic problems.
- Thioune highlighted his reading of the game, quality on the ball and ability to win the ball back, and asked for patience with his comeback.
- Jens Stage remains unavailable with a muscle injury.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:56 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 82%

−8.0ppshort

Recent matches for both sides have usually contained at least one first-half goal.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 66.7%

−2.7ppshort

Both teams’ recent matches have tended to produce goals, and Mainz’s home games have been especially open.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both teams have shown they can score and concede, with Werder’s Füllkrug-led attack particularly relevant.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mainz’s overall points and scoring are stronger, but their home form is the main drag on a home win.
- Mainz have taken one point from three home league games, scoring four and conceding seven.
- Mainz won all three away league games before the home draw with Paderborn.
- Werder are unbeaten in five league games but have drawn two of three away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMainzEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both home and away splits point to a tight first half with few early breakthroughs.
- Mainz have not led at half-time at home in the league this season.
- Werder have not led at half-time away in the league this season.
- Werder have scored only two first-half goals in eight competitive matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mainz’s overall points and scoring are stronger, but their home form is the main drag on a home win. Werder’s scoring form and Mainz’s home defensive record give the away side a credible route to victory.
- Mainz have taken one point from three home league games, scoring four and conceding seven.
- Mainz won all three away league games before the home draw with Paderborn.
- Werder have scored in seven of eight competitive matches this season.
- Niclas Füllkrug has seven goals in seven competitive games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMainz or Werder BremenEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mainz’s overall first-half scoring and Werder’s slow starts make a home half-time lead plausible. Both home and away splits point to a tight first half with few early breakthroughs.
- Mainz led at half-time in three of their last six league matches.
- Mainz average 0.67 first-half goals at home.
- Mainz have not led at half-time at home in the league this season.
- Werder have not led at half-time away in the league this season.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostMainz or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams’ recent matches have tended to produce goals, and Mainz’s home games have been especially open.
- Mainz’s three home league games average 3.67 total goals.
- Werder’s last six league games have gone over 2.5 in five.
- Werder’s three away league games have gone over 2.5 in two.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have shown they can score and concede, with Werder’s Füllkrug-led attack particularly relevant.
- Mainz have both scored and conceded in two of three home league games.
- Werder have both scored and conceded in all six of their last league games.
- Werder have scored in seven of eight competitive matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Recent matches for both sides have usually contained at least one first-half goal.
- Mainz’s last six league matches produced a first-half goal in five.
- Werder’s last six league matches produced a first-half goal in five.
- Mainz at home and Werder away each had a first-half goal in two of three.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mainz’s home corner volume and Werder’s away totals make a line around ten corners reasonable.
- Mainz average 6.33 corners at home.
- Werder average 5.75 corners away.
- Werder’s three away league games all had more than 9.5 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent shot volume for both sides is comfortably below the 34.5 line.
- Mainz’s last six league matches average 30.2 total shots.
- Werder’s last six league matches average 29.3 total shots.
- Mainz home total shots average 33.0; Werder away 28.75.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 34.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent shots-on-target numbers point to a total below 13.5.
- Mainz home total shots on target average 8.7; Werder away 10.0.
- Mainz’s last six league matches average 9.8 total shots on target.
- Werder’s last six league matches average 12.3 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 13.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent home and away card counts lean below 3.5, though the margin is not large.
- Mainz’s home league games average 3.0 total yellow cards.
- Werder’s away league games average 2.7 total yellow cards.
- Mainz’s home games produced over 3.5 cards only once in three.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-2Werder BremenvFSV Mainz 05Mar 15, 2026BL

D1-1FSV Mainz 05vWerder BremenNov 1, 2025BL

L1-0Werder BremenvFSV Mainz 05Jan 31, 2025BL

W1-2FSV Mainz 05vWerder BremenSep 15, 2024BL

W0-1FSV Mainz 05vWerder BremenFeb 3, 2024BL

Mainz: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Mainz Europa League league stage	6	3	1	2	14-10	10	WLWLW
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	12-12	9	DDWDW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Mainz

W1-0FC Schalke 04Oct 17BL

L3-4Bayer LeverkusenOct 10BL

W3-0Waldhof MannheimOct 3FRI

W4-3Borussia MönchengladbachSep 19BL

L1-3Eintracht FrankfurtSep 12BL

W5-0Hamburger SVSep 6BL

D0-0SC Paderborn 07Aug 29BL

W9-0KrieschowAug 23DFB

W2-1BournemouthAug 15FRI

W4-0Paris FCAug 8FRI

D3-3UdineseAug 1FRI

W1-0Shabab Al Ahli DubaiJul 31FRI

W3-0Holstein KielJul 25FRI

W4-11. FC KaiserslauternJul 17FRI

W10-0EisbachtalJul 11FRI

Werder Bremen

D2-2SC Paderborn 07Oct 17BL

D2-2Borussia DortmundOct 9BL

L0-7TwenteOct 2FRI

W3-2FC AugsburgSep 19BL

D1-11. FC KölnSep 12BL

W3-1RB LeipzigSep 5BL

L1-4SC FreiburgAug 30BL

W3-0Lüneburger SK HansaAug 22DFB

L0-1AuxerreAug 15FRI

D2-2SC Paderborn 07Aug 8FRI

W4-2Energie CottbusAug 1FRI

W2-0VfL BochumJul 25FRI

W2-0Fagiano OkayamaJul 22FRI

W6-2Verden 04Jul 18FRI

L0-2Borussia DortmundMay 16BL

Squad & Injuries

Mainz

8 out

Attackers5

Midfielders4/14

×#31

×#20

×#31

×#20

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2/4

×#27

#31 D. Kohr — Foot Injury

Silas — Broken shinbone

#20 O. Ruoppi — Knee Injury

#27 R. Zentner — Hand Injury

#31 D. Kohr — Foot Injury

Silas — Broken shinbone

#20 O. Ruoppi — Knee Injury

#27 R. Zentner — Hand Injury

Werder Bremen

18 out

Attackers4/7

×#29

×#11

×#29

×#11

Midfielders6/10

×#80

×#6

×#14

×#80

×#6

×#14

Defenders6/10

×#27

×#16

×#4

×#27

×#16

×#4

Goalkeeper3

#27 F. Agu — Calf Injury

#80 S. Alvero — Calf Injury

#29 S. Musah — Muscle Injury

#11 J. Njinmah — Thigh Injury

#6 J. Stage — Muscle Injury

K. Topp — Knee Injury

#14 S. Lynen — Hip Injury

#16 M. N'Diaye — Groin Injury

#4 N. Stark — Thigh Injury

#27 F. Agu — Calf Injury

#80 S. Alvero — Calf Injury

#29 S. Musah — Muscle Injury

#11 J. Njinmah — Thigh Injury

#6 J. Stage — Muscle Injury

K. Topp — Knee Injury

#14 S. Lynen — Hip Injury

#16 M. N'Diaye — Groin Injury

#4 N. Stark — Thigh Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Yes

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 3 landed

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Mainz

Werder Bremen

Squad & Injuries

Mainz

Werder Bremen