OFI Crete0Bayer Leverkusen2

HT 0–2Thu 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–377%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 6–33On targetOn target 2–15CornersCorners 5–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 04:08 · Europe/Bucharest

OFI have not lost in six competitive home matches, keeping five clean sheets, while Leverkusen arrive with six goals scored and none conceded in two Europa League games and a trip to Crete four days after facing Freiburg.

Leverkusen look the likelier winners, but their 1.22 price does not pay for the risk. Two quoted prices do offer something: at least one side to be shut out at 1.91, and under 2.5 goals at 2.88.

Context

Terrier started Leverkusen's 4-0 win at Lech Poznan on 15 October and was forced off inside 20 minutes; the club said the following day he had suffered a left hamstring muscle injury and expects him out until December. That removes an attacker from the pool days before Carles Martínez picks a side for Crete, where rotation is likely around a Sunday Bundesliga meeting with Freiburg. The blow is partly cushioned by form: Patrik Schick, Malik Tillman and Ibrahim Maza all scored in Poznan, so the effect is depth rather than the loss of a guaranteed starter.
- Bayer Leverkusen said on 16 October that Martin Terrier suffered a muscle injury to his left hamstring in the 4-0 Europa League win at Lech Poznan and is expected to be sidelined until December.
- Terrier started against Lech Poznan and was forced off in the 20th minute, with Thomas Eichin quoted that the setback was tragic given his recent return from injury.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 04:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Leverkusen have opened the Europa League with a 2-0 win over Celje and a 4-0 win at Lech Poznan under Carles Martínez, six goals scored and none conceded, and they sit level on points with the early leaders. That record frames the trip to Crete as a game the German side will expect to control against opponents with one win from two matchdays. The counterweight is scheduling: Leverkusen host Bundesliga leaders Freiburg on 18 October, four days earlier, and Martínez has already shown he will rotate in Europe.
- Leverkusen have won both Europa League games under Carles Martínez, beating Celje 2-0 and Lech Poznan 4-0 for six goals scored and none conceded.
- The coach has four straight competitive wins and Leverkusen host Bundesliga leaders Freiburg on Sunday 18 October before the trip to Crete.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 04:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Kontis set OFI up in what he described as a 'medium to low block' to beat Hoffenheim 2-0 on their League Phase debut, and he has said the team's defensive organisation is what has lifted the club in Greece and Europe. That shape is the main obstacle Leverkusen's high-scoring attack must solve in Crete. OFI showed both sides of the approach at Rennes, taking a 10th-minute lead through Fountas before conceding late in a 2-1 defeat, so the plan depends on sustaining concentration for the full match.
- After OFI's 2-0 win over Hoffenheim on 17 September, Christos Kontis said he set the team up in a 'medium to low block' and that defensive organisation has lifted OFI in league, cup and Europe.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 04:05 · Europe/Bucharest
OFI's club channels confirmed on 12 October that more than 10,000 supporters had already booked places for the Leverkusen game at Pagkritio Stadium, and local coverage on 16 October said tickets were flying. A full, loud ground is a concrete environmental factor for a home side that beat Hoffenheim 2-0 there on matchday one. It does not close the quality gap with a Bundesliga club, but it makes a flat, low-attendance European night less likely.
- OFI said on 12 October that more than 10,000 fans had booked places for the Leverkusen fixture at Pagkritio Stadium.
- Tickets for the 22 October game went on general sale on 8 October, and local coverage on 16 October said they were selling fast.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 04:05 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.17fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 85.5%

−12.5ppshort

Both sides score first-half goals in their home and away matches, making at least one goal before the break likely.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bayer Leverkusen

1.22fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 82%

−25.0ppshort

Leverkusen arrive on four straight wins and a perfect Europa League start, with a stronger squad and scoring record than OFI.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bayer Leverkusen

1.55fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 64.5%

−19.5ppshort

Leverkusen score regularly before the break and have the quality to lead at half time.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Leverkusen arrive on four straight wins and a perfect Europa League start, with a stronger squad and scoring record than OFI.
- Leverkusen: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 competitive matches, 3.0 goals scored per game
- Leverkusen away: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 3.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game
- OFI home: 5 wins and 1 draw in 6, only 1 goal conceded
- Leverkusen: 6 scored and 0 conceded in two Europa League games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.55
The read
Leverkusen score regularly before the break and have the quality to lead at half time.
- Leverkusen overall first half: 1.375 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Leverkusen away first half: 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded
- OFI home first half: 0.17 conceded per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen score more after the break, and their depth could tell as OFI tire.
- Leverkusen away second half: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game
- Leverkusen overall second half: 1.625 scored per game
- OFI home second half: 0.17 conceded per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen arrive on four straight wins and a perfect Europa League start, with a stronger squad and scoring record than OFI. OFI's compact home setup and Leverkusen's long trip make a share of the points plausible if the visitors are held out.
- Leverkusen: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 competitive matches, 3.0 goals scored per game
- Leverkusen away: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 3.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game
- OFI home: 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in 6 matches
- OFI overall: 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Bayer LeverkusenEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen score regularly before the break and have the quality to lead at half time. OFI's defensive discipline at home could keep the opening period level even against a stronger side.
- Leverkusen overall first half: 1.375 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Leverkusen away first half: 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded
- OFI home first half: 1.17 scored and 0.17 conceded per game
- Leverkusen overall first half: 1.375 scored and 0.5 conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Bayer LeverkusenEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's recent away matches have produced high totals, and OFI have shown they can score at home.
- Leverkusen away: 3.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game
- Leverkusen scored 4 in each of their last two matches
- OFI home: 0.33 conceded per game, 5 clean sheets in 6
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
OFI concede rarely at home while Leverkusen have kept clean sheets in most recent games.
- OFI home: 5 clean sheets in 6, 1 goal conceded
- OFI overall: only 3 of 12 matches had both teams score
- Leverkusen kept clean sheets in 5 of 8 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen have scored at least two goals in most recent games, including four in each of their last two.
- Leverkusen overall: 3.0 goals per game, 8 scored in 8
- Leverkusen away: 3.2 goals per game
- Leverkusen scored 4 in each of their last two matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBayer Leverkusen over 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both sides score first-half goals in their home and away matches, making at least one goal before the break likely.
- Leverkusen overall first half: 1.375 scored per game
- OFI home first half: 1.17 scored per game
- Leverkusen scored 3 first-half goals at Lech Poznan
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
OFI win few corners and their home matches have produced modest totals, with Leverkusen's away corner counts also moderate.
- OFI home: 3.2 corners for, 5.0 against per game
- Leverkusen away: 5.6 corners for, 3.6 against
- OFI overall: 3.1 corners per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen generate a high shot volume and OFI's deep block invites shots from distance and crosses.
- Leverkusen away: 21.6 shots for, 11.6 against per game
- OFI overall: 17.1 shots conceded per game
- OFI conceded 25 and 19 shots at Rennes and AEK
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 29.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen put a high number of shots on target, and OFI concede several per game.
- Leverkusen overall: 7.25 shots on target per game
- OFI overall: 5.4 shots on target conceded
- Leverkusen away: 6.8 shots on target per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
OFI's home games and European matches have produced bookings for both sides, with opponents often carded.
- OFI overall: 1.4 yellows, opponents 2.7 per game
- OFI home: 1.6 yellows, opponents 2.6
- Leverkusen away: opponents 2.0 yellows per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%