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Predictions graded

Monterrey2Pachuca1

HT 2–0Mon 19 Oct 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 10–11On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 3–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 01:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Monterrey and Pachuca meet at the Estadio BBVA one point apart in the liguilla race, with Monterrey's home scoring and Pachuca's missing attackers pointing to the hosts.

Pachuca have won four of the last five meetings, including 3-1 here in April, and Salomon Rondon's form keeps them in it. Under 2.5 goals at 2.25 and Pachuca at 3.8 are the two prices with something to offer; 1.55 for Over 2.5, 1.57 for both teams to score and 1.7 for Monterrey do not.

Context

Monterrey's 14 October session at El Barrial left two attacking options, Luca Orellano and Uros Djurdjevic, on separate gym work, while Stefan Medina returned to the group after a knee knock. With Monterrey short of the liguilla places and needing points, the fitness of two forwards is directly relevant to how Matias Almeyda sets up against Pachuca. The limitation is that gym work does not by itself rule either player out, and the club has several days before kick-off for both to return, so this is a monitoring point rather than a settled absence.
- Luca Orellano and Uros Djurdjevic did gym work away from the main group on 14 October 2026.
- Stefan Medina returned to the group after a knee problem that had kept him in physiotherapy earlier in the month.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 01:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Kenedy is Pachuca's notable attacking absentee: a right-thigh injury suffered in September carried a three-to-four-week recovery window and he was still training separately before the Necaxa draw, so his return for this trip is not established. Arroyo and Dominguez remain out as well, trimming the options available to Benjamín Mora in a squad already short of results. The limitation is that Pachuca have coped without Kenedy for several weeks, so this is continuity rather than a fresh disruption for the fixture.
- Kenedy has been sidelined since mid-September with a right biceps femoris injury that was initially estimated at three to four weeks.
- Kenedy trained separately and missed the 3-3 draw with Necaxa on 11 October 2026.
- Andres Arroyo and Alexei Dominguez also remain unavailable for the Monterrey fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 01:31 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match pagewww.fotmob.com · 14 Oct 2026
Mora is the current Pachuca head coach and enters the Monterrey fixture under pressure, with four wins from 14 matches and a 3-3 home draw against Necaxa on 11 October leaving the Tuzos on 13 points from 11 games. Monterrey sit a point above them around the liguilla cut, so this is a direct chance to steady the season rather than a neutral fixture. The counterpoint is that Pachuca's problem has been results rather than performances alone, and the coach's public framing of the club's habit of raising its game against stronger opponents is rhetoric until it shows on the pitch.
- Pachuca have won four of Benjamín Mora's 14 matches in charge.
- Pachuca drew 3-3 at home with Necaxa on 11 October 2026 and have 13 points from 11 Apertura 2026 games.
- Mora framed the trip to Monterrey around Pachuca's record of raising its game against stronger sides.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 01:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Monterrey and Pachuca meet within a point of each other around the liguilla cut, so the result moves one or both in a compressed mid-table race rather than deciding anything. Monterrey's coach Matias Almeyda highlighted after the 1-1 draw at America that his side must add points to reach the liguilla, which makes a home fixture against a team one point away a targeted opportunity. The counterpoint is that the table is tight enough that a draw helps both only marginally, and neither side's season turns on this single game.
- Monterrey and Pachuca are separated by a single point in the Apertura 2026 table.
- Monterrey drew 1-1 at America on 11 October 2026, with Diego Rossi scoring their goal.
- Matias Almeyda highlighted Monterrey's need to add points to reach the liguilla.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 01:31 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 82%

−9.0ppshort

Combined first-half rates make at least one goal before the break more likely than not.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monterrey's stronger home scoring and Pachuca's missing attackers favour the hosts.
- Monterrey's league home record is 3W-1D-1L with 11 goals scored and 6 conceded in five games
- Monterrey average 1.86 goals at home against 1.14 conceded in the venue split
- Pachuca are without Kenedy, Arroyo and Dominguez for the trip
- Pachuca have won four of the last five meetings, including 3-1 at Monterrey in April 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMonterreyEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves are low-scoring, which favours no leader at the break.
- Monterrey average 0.64 first-half goals overall, Pachuca 0.64
- Monterrey's home split first-half against is 0.71, Pachuca's away 0.67
- Monterrey's last home game was 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monterrey's strong second-half home record makes them the likelier late winner.
- Monterrey's home split scores 1.0 second-half goals and concedes 0.43
- Monterrey average 0.86 second-half goals overall
- Pachuca average 0.43 second-half goals against overall
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostMonterreyEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterrey's stronger home scoring and Pachuca's missing attackers favour the hosts. Pachuca's away record and strong recent record in this fixture keep them firmly in the contest.
- Monterrey's league home record is 3W-1D-1L with 11 goals scored and 6 conceded in five games
- Monterrey average 1.86 goals at home against 1.14 conceded in the venue split
- Pachuca have won four of the last five meetings, including 3-1 at Monterrey in April 2026
- Pachuca's league away record is 3W-1D-2L with 9 scored and 3 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMonterrey or PachucaEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterrey's home first-half scoring makes them the likeliest half-time leader. Both teams' first halves are low-scoring, which favours no leader at the break.
- Monterrey's home split scores 0.86 first-half goals and concedes 0.71
- Pachuca's away split scores 0.67 first-half goals and concedes 0.67
- Monterrey average 0.64 first-half goals overall, Pachuca 0.64
- Monterrey's home split first-half against is 0.71, Pachuca's away 0.67
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonMonterrey or DrawEstimated chance71%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches sit near three goals a game, so a third goal is more likely than not.
- Monterrey average 1.5 scored and 1.43 conceded over 14 matches
- Monterrey home games average about 3.0 total goals in the venue split
- Pachuca's league away games average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Monterrey usually concede at home while Pachuca have scored in each recent outing.
- Monterrey's home split had both teams scoring in 5 of 7 games
- Pachuca have scored in each of their last four matches
- Monterrey conceded in 11 of 14 overall matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pachuca's away defence has limited opponents to few goals.
- Pachuca's away split concedes 0.89 per game
- Pachuca kept 4 clean sheets in 9 away games
- Monterrey scored 11 in 5 league home games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMonterrey under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pachuca's away totals lean to one goal or fewer in most games.
- Pachuca average 1.5 scored per game over 14 matches
- Pachuca failed to score in their 0-1 loss at Santos Laguna
- Monterrey's home split concedes 1.14 per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonPachuca under 1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Combined first-half rates make at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- Monterrey average 0.64 first-half goals for and 0.71 against
- Pachuca average 0.64 first-half goals for and 0.93 against
- Monterrey scored first-half goals in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both sides averaging under one first-half goal, at least one is likely to be held.
- Monterrey average 0.64 first-half goals for
- Pachuca average 0.64 first-half goals for
- Pachuca's away split first-half against is 0.67
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pachuca's low away second-half totals keep the combined count down.
- Pachuca's away split produces 0.89 total second-half goals
- Monterrey's home split concedes 0.43 second-half goals
- Pachuca's away split concedes 0.22 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The venue corner averages project just below the line.
- Monterrey's home games total 10.14 corners
- Pachuca's away games total 9.56 corners
- Monterrey's home split wins 7.71 corners while Pachuca's away split wins 5.11
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' on-target rates combine to around eleven per game.
- Monterrey's home split records 5.86 shots on target for and 2.71 against
- Pachuca's away split records 5.22 shots on target for and 4.67 against
- Monterrey's recent match totals include 10 and 14 on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' combined card rates sit above four and a half.
- Monterrey average 2.08 yellow cards and their opponents 2.62
- Pachuca average 2.77 yellow cards and their opponents 2.46
- Pachuca's recent matches produced 8, 5, 4, 6, 10 and 4 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L1-3MonterreyvCF PachucaApr 19, 2026LIG

L3-0CF PachucavMonterreyJul 13, 2025LIG

L1-2MonterreyvCF PachucaApr 28, 2025LIG

L2-3MonterreyvCF PachucaJan 26, 2025LIG

W0-1CF PachucavMonterreyJul 8, 2024LIG

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga MX 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	17-15	14	DLWDL
11	Pachuca	11	3	4	4	18-14	13	DLDWW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Monterrey

D1-1Club AmericaOct 11LIG

W2-1TolucaOct 3FRI

L2-4Atlante FCSep 26LIG

W1-0Cruz AzulSep 20LIG

D0-0Tigres UANLSep 13LIG

L0-2TolucaSep 7LEA

L1-3Atletico San LuisAug 31LIG

W2-1Chicago FireAug 26LEA

L0-2LeonAug 22LIG

W6-1FC JuarezAug 16LIG

W2-1Nashville SCAug 13LEA

W2-1Inter MiamiAug 9LEA

L1-2Orlando City SCAug 5LEA

W2-0AtlasAug 2LIG

L1-2NecaxaJul 26LIG

Pachuca

D3-3NecaxaOct 11LIG

L0-1Santos LagunaSep 27LIG

D2-2Club TijuanaSep 21LIG

W3-0Atlante FCSep 12LIG

W2-0FC JuarezSep 5LIG

D1-1Guadalajara ChivasAug 29LIG

D1-1Atletico San LuisAug 23LIG

L2-3PueblaAug 18LIG

W1-0CharlotteAug 11LEA

L1-2Columbus CrewAug 7LEA

L1-3FC CincinnatiAug 4LEA

L0-1LeonAug 2LIG

L1-2Club QueretaroJul 27LIG

W3-0U.N.A.M. - PumasJul 18LIG

W3-1PueblaJul 4FRI

Squad & Injuries

Monterrey

102 available

Attackers17

Midfielders46

Defenders30

Goalkeeper9

Pachuca

72 available

Attackers23

Midfielders19

Defenders25

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Pachuca

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Monterrey

Pachuca

Squad & Injuries

Monterrey

Pachuca