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Predictions graded

Leiston 0Guiseley3

HT 0–3Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 5–16On targetOn target 3–8CornersCorners 0–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 23:22 · Europe/Bucharest

A place in the FA Cup first round proper is on offer as Leiston host Guiseley in the fourth qualifying round.

Guiseley carry the better overall record and a strong away game, but Leiston start quickly at home and the 230-mile trip keeps it close. Guiseley are the stronger side, yet 1.80 asks for more than the form supports, and no reviewed price offers a clear advantage.

Context

Guiseley asked for the midweek league fixture to be moved and the league agreed, so Ian Richards' squad goes into the trip to Suffolk without a competitive game in the days beforehand. That is a deliberate trade-off: fresher legs and more training time for a part-time group, at the cost of a congested run later once the Cleethorpes fixture is played. The benefit is relative rather than unique, because Leiston also had no midweek match and last played on 10 October, so the postponement mainly spared Guiseley a third game in eight days.
- Guiseley stated on 9 October 2026 that the home league game with Cleethorpes Town had been postponed with the Northern Premier League's agreement to allow more preparation for the FA Cup tie at Leiston.
- The rearranged Cleethorpes Town fixture is set for Tuesday 20 October 2026.
- Guiseley's last match before the tie was a 1-0 win at Avro on 10 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:20 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the final qualifying round before the first round proper, when clubs from League One and League Two enter the draw, so the tie carries the revenue, exposure and potential reward of the competition's main stage. Both sides are Step 3 clubs, Leiston in the Southern League Premier Central and Guiseley in the Northern Premier, so the fixture is level on paper and neither side can lean on a divisional gap. The single-match knockout format makes the reward immediate and the margin small.
- The tie is at Leiston's Flannery Stadium on Saturday 17 October 2026, kick-off 3pm, with the winners into the first round proper.
- Leiston beat Coventry United 3-1 on 3 October 2026 and won 2-1 away at Hitchin Town on 19 September 2026 in qualifying.
- Guiseley beat Bradford (Park Avenue) 1-0 on 3 October 2026 and won 4-1 away at Hebburn Town on 19 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:20 · Europe/Bucharest
The fourth qualifying round draw is split by region to keep travel manageable, yet Leiston, a Suffolk club in the Southern League, landed in the northern half, which is how they drew a home tie and Guiseley one of the longest journeys in the round. The away support is making a roughly 230-mile trip each way, with the supporters' coach departing Nethermoor at 6:30am and selling out. A long day is a genuine condition for a part-time squad, though the players travel separately and the scale of any effect on the XI is unproven.
- Leiston, a Southern League club, were drawn in the northern section of the regionalised fourth qualifying round and given a home tie against Guiseley.
- The trip from Guiseley's Nethermoor ground to Leiston is about 230 miles.
- The Guiseley supporters' club coach leaves Nethermoor at 6:30am and was confirmed fully booked on 14 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Across eight away matches from 15 August to 10 October 2026, Guiseley average 2.13 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game, with three clean sheets and just one defeat. It is the strongest part of their season and the basis of the better overall record they bring to this tie. Leiston's home record of four wins, no draws and three defeats, conceding 1.43 per home game, is the counterweight, and a one-off cup tie after a long journey can narrow the gap. Eight matches is a short sample.
- Guiseley away record 2026-08-15 to 2026-10-10: 5 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 8 matches
- 2.13 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per away game, with 3 clean sheets

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Leiston or Guiseley

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

−5.0ppshort

Guiseley have the stronger results and a solid away scoring record, while Leiston have lost three of seven at home. Leiston score regularly at home and hold home advantage in a cup tie where they have already won once.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

−6.5ppshort

Both sides carry strong scoring averages into the tie, pointing to a game with at least three goals.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Guiseley

1.80fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 55.6%

−8.6ppshort

Guiseley have the stronger results and a solid away scoring record, while Leiston have lost three of seven at home.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.80
The read
Guiseley have the stronger results and a solid away scoring record, while Leiston have lost three of seven at home.
- Guiseley overall: 11 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses from 15
- Guiseley away: 5W-2D-1L, 2.13 scored and 0.88 conceded per away game
- Leiston home: 4W-0D-3L, 2.14 scored and 1.43 conceded per home game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGuiseleyEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leiston start strongly at home and have the better first-half scoring average of the two.
- Leiston home first-half goals for: 1.71 per game
- Leiston home first-half goals against: 0.43 per game
- Guiseley away first-half goals against: 0.38 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLeistonEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leiston fade after the break at home while Guiseley keep scoring, giving them the second-half edge.
- Guiseley away second-half goals for: 0.88 per game
- Leiston home second-half goals against: 1.00 per game
- Leiston home second-half goals for: 0.43 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGuiseleyEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Guiseley have the stronger results and a solid away scoring record, while Leiston have lost three of seven at home. Leiston score regularly at home and hold home advantage in a cup tie where they have already won once.
- Guiseley overall: 11 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses from 15
- Guiseley away: 5W-2D-1L, 2.13 scored and 0.88 conceded per away game
- Leiston home: 4W-0D-3L, 2.14 goals per home game
- Leiston home first-half goals for: 1.71 per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLeiston or GuiseleyEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leiston start strongly at home and have the better first-half scoring average of the two. Both defences are hard to break down early, making a level first half plausible.
- Leiston home first-half goals for: 1.71 per game
- Leiston home first-half goals against: 0.43 per game
- Guiseley away first-half goals against: 0.38 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostLeiston or DrawEstimated chance71%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both sides carry strong scoring averages into the tie, pointing to a game with at least three goals.
- Leiston home: 2.14 scored, 1.43 conceded per game
- Guiseley away: 2.13 scored, 0.88 conceded per game
- Leiston both teams scored in 4 of 7 home games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams scored in a majority of Leiston's home games and half of Guiseley's away games.
- Leiston home both teams scored: 4 of 7
- Guiseley away both teams scored: 4 of 8
- Leiston overall both teams scored: 10 of 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guiseley's away defence makes it more likely than not Leiston finish with one goal or fewer.
- Guiseley away: 0.88 conceded per game
- Leiston scored 5 goals across 7 home games overall record 4W-3L
- Leiston second-half home goals against: 1.00 per game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLeiston under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guiseley score in almost every away game and face a Leiston defence conceding 1.43 at home.
- Guiseley away: 2.13 goals per game
- Guiseley scored in 7 of 8 away games
- Leiston home: 1.43 conceded per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGuiseley over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guiseley's consistent away scoring makes it likely Leiston concede at least once.
- Guiseley scored in 7 of 8 away games
- Leiston home clean sheets: 1 of 7
- Leiston home: 1.43 conceded per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGuiseley to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leiston's home scoring record suggests they usually find a goal.
- Leiston scored in 5 of 7 home games
- Leiston home: 2.14 goals per game
- Guiseley away clean sheets: 3 of 8
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLeiston to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams score early at a good rate, so at least one first-half goal is very likely.
- Leiston home first-half goals for: 1.71 per game
- Guiseley away first-half goals for: 1.25 per game
- Guiseley overall first-half goals against: 0.47 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both defences conceding few first-half goals, only one or neither side scoring early is more likely.
- Guiseley away first-half goals against: 0.38 per game
- Leiston home first-half goals against: 0.43 per game
- Guiseley away first-half goals for: 1.25 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring from Leiston at home makes one goal or fewer slightly more likely.
- Leiston home second-half goals for: 0.43 per game
- Guiseley away second-half goals against: 0.50 per game
- Guiseley away second-half goals for: 0.88 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Recent Form

Leiston

D0-0Racing Club WarwickOct 10NON

W3-1Coventry UnitedOct 3FAC

L2-3Real BedfordSep 29NON

L0-3DartfordSep 26FA

L0-2Peterborough SportsSep 22NON

W2-1Hitchin TownSep 19FAC

W2-1Banbury UnitedSep 12NON

W5-0Grays AthleticSep 8FAC

D0-0Grays AthleticSep 5FAC

L3-4Bury TownAug 31NON

W3-1Redditch UnitedAug 29NON

D2-2StourbridgeAug 22NON

L1-2Rushall OlympicAug 15NON

W3-1Bishop's StortfordAug 11NON

D1-1Anstey NomadsAug 8NON

Guiseley

W1-0AvroOct 10NON

W2-0Ilkeston TownOct 6NON

W1-0Bradford (Park Avenue)Oct 3FAC

L0-1Alfreton TownSep 29NON

W4-2Bamber BridgeSep 26FA

W4-1Hebburn TownSep 19FAC

W4-1QuornSep 12NON

W2-1Stockton TownSep 8FAC

D2-2Stockton TownSep 5FAC

W4-0AFC EmleyAug 31NON

L1-2Lancaster CityAug 28NON

W3-0Stockton TownAug 25NON

W2-1Curzon AshtonAug 22NON

W3-2BuryAug 18NON

D2-2WorkingtonAug 15NON

Squad & Injuries

Leiston

3 available

Attackers0

Midfielders2

Defenders0

Goalkeeper1

Guiseley

10 available

Attackers1

Midfielders3

Defenders5

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Leiston or Guiseley

Over 2.5

Yes

Guiseley

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 9 landed

Recent Form

Leiston

Guiseley

Squad & Injuries

Leiston

Guiseley