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Predictions graded

Bedford Town0Cray Wanderers0

HT 0–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 8–18On targetOn target 2–8CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 23:50 · Europe/Bucharest

A sixth-tier host against a seventh-tier side that has won three FA Cup ties and scores in every away game: Bedford Town's home edge is real but narrow, and Cray Wanderers can take this to a replay or win it.

Bedford are the more likely winners, yet 1.7 asks too much; the draw or a Cray win at 2.0, fewer than three goals at 2.4 and Cray to win at 3.8 all offer something.

Context

The fourth qualifying round is the final step before the national First Round Proper, where League One and League Two clubs enter the draw, making this the most consequential fixture either club has played this season. Bedford Town's scheduled National League North game with Chorley on 17 October was postponed because of the cup, underlining that both sides treat the tie as the priority. The sporting reference point is the division gap: Bedford Town are a tier-six National League North club, while Cray Wanderers play a level below in the tier-seven Isthmian Premier, though a one-off cup tie at the Eyrie can compress that difference.
- Bedford Town host Cray Wanderers in the Emirates FA Cup fourth qualifying round, one win from the First Round Proper (Cray Wanderers, 14 October 2026).
- The fourth qualifying round is where the 24 National League clubs enter, ahead of the First Round Proper on 7 November (Proper Football, 2 October 2026).
- Bedford Town play in National League North while Cray Wanderers are an Isthmian Premier club, one division below.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Bedford Town moved quickly after losing at Chester, announcing Duku's arrival on 9 October and using him from the 60th minute the following day, so he is available for the cup tie. His recruitment gives the hosts another senior central-forward option alongside their existing attackers, which matters in a squad that was already juggling absences. The caveat is the scale of the evidence: one substitute appearance and no starts for his new club, so it is unclear whether he displaces anyone in the starting XI.
- Bedford Town announced the signing of Dutch striker Manny Duku on 9 October 2026 following his departure from National League club Eastleigh; he took squad number 34.
- Duku came on as a 60th-minute substitute for Louie Kudiabor in Bedford Town's 1-0 defeat at Chester on 10 October 2026, the same change in which George Moncur replaced the injured Junior Gyamfi.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Cray Wanderers' management chose a heavily changed, youthful team for the London Senior Cup at Tooting & Mitcham on 13 October, three days after the league defeat by Lewes and four before the FA Cup tie. With the club describing nine October fixtures across four competitions, that rotation points to the Bedford Town tie being treated as the week's priority. It does not confirm the FA Cup XI, since the London Senior Cup is a minor competition and the strongest available side is likely to return at the Eyrie.
- Cray Wanderers lost 1-0 at Tooting & Mitcham United in the London Senior Cup second round on 13 October 2026, with the hosts describing the visitors as a youthful side.
- The Cray lineup named at Tooting & Mitcham was heavily changed from their Isthmian Premier fixtures, and the attendance was 95.
- Cray Wanderers' October schedule includes nine fixtures across four cup competitions, according to the club.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Bedford's home record from 15 August to 3 October 2026 covers seven matches with four wins, two draws and one defeat, and they scored in every one while conceding in six. That points to goals at both ends at the Eyrie rather than a tight, low-scoring home display, and it leaves the visitors a realistic route to the scoresheet.
- Bedford Town's home record covers seven matches between 15 August and 3 October 2026: four wins, two draws and one defeat.
- They scored in all seven home matches, conceded in six and kept one home clean sheet.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bedford sit a division above Cray and have lost only once at home, so they hold a narrow advantage.
- Bedford Town are 7W-2D-5L overall and 4W-2D-1L at home
- Cray Wanderers are 6W-5D-3L overall and 2W-2D-2L away
- Bedford average 1.50 goals for and 1.36 against; Cray average 2.00 for and 1.21 against
- Bedford play a division higher, National League North against Isthmian Premier
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBedford TownEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bedford do much of their scoring before the break and start well at home, making a half-time lead the single most likely outcome.
- Bedford first-half goals for average 0.93 overall and 1.14 at home
- Cray first-half goals against average 0.50
- Bedford first-half goals against average 0.71
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBedford TownEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cray score most of their goals after half-time while Bedford are much quieter, so Cray are the more likely second-half winners.
- Cray second-half goals for average 1.21 overall and 1.17 away
- Bedford second-half goals for average 0.57
- Cray scored a second-half goal in five of their last six
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCray WanderersEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bedford sit a division above Cray and have lost only once at home, so they hold a narrow advantage. Cray carry strong away scoring and a three-tie cup run, so an away win is a realistic outcome.
- Bedford Town are 7W-2D-5L overall and 4W-2D-1L at home
- Cray Wanderers are 6W-5D-3L overall and 2W-2D-2L away
- Cray scored 2+ in four of their last six matches
- Cray average 2.17 goals away from home
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBedford Town or Cray WanderersEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bedford do much of their scoring before the break and start well at home, making a half-time lead the single most likely outcome. Both sides average under a goal apiece before the break, so going in level is a strong possibility.
- Bedford first-half goals for average 0.93 overall and 1.14 at home
- Cray first-half goals against average 0.50
- Bedford first-half for 0.93, against 0.71
- Cray first-half for 0.79, against 0.50
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBedford Town or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average close to three goals, so over 2.5 is marginally better supported.
- Bedford's matches average 2.86 total goals (1.50 for, 1.36 against)
- Cray's matches average 3.21 total goals (2.00 for, 1.21 against)
- Cray's last six include a 5-1, a 3-3 and a 3-0
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both sides scored in ten matches each and rarely keep clean sheets, so a goal for each is likely.
- Both teams scored in 10 of Bedford's 14 and 10 of Cray's 14
- Bedford's home games had both teams score in 6 of 7
- Cray's away games had both teams score in 5 of 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Holding Bedford to one goal or none is possible, but their home scoring record makes it the less likely side.
- Bedford's home average is 1.86 goals per game
- Bedford scored in all 7 home matches
- Cray conceded 1.50 goals per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBedford Town under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The step up in opposition and Bedford's home defence could keep Cray below two goals.
- Cray's away average is 2.17 goals per game
- Bedford concede 1.29 goals per home game
- Cray scored one goal or fewer in two of their last six
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCray Wanderers under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cray have scored in almost every match, so Bedford going without conceding is unlikely.
- Cray scored in 13 of 14 matches overall
- Cray scored in all 6 away matches
- Bedford kept 1 clean sheet in 7 home games
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCray Wanderers to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bedford have scored in every home game, so Cray going without conceding is unlikely.
- Bedford scored in all 7 home matches
- Bedford scored in 12 of 14 overall
- Cray kept 1 away clean sheet in 6
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBedford Town to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A Cray win without conceding requires an away win and a shutout against a side that always scores at home.
- Bedford scored in all 7 home matches
- Bedford scored in 12 of 14 overall
- Cray kept 1 away clean sheet in 6
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams contribute to first-half goals and a completely blank opening period is uncommon.
- Bedford first-half totals average 1.64 goals per game
- Cray first-half totals average 1.29 per game
- Bedford scored a first-half goal in four of their last six
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging under a goal before the break, a first half without both scoring is much more likely.
- Each side averages under one first-half goal
- Cray conceded a first-half goal in two of their last six
- Bedford's first halves were 0-0 twice in six
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bedford's quiet second halves pull the expected total below the line, keeping under 1.5 slightly favoured.
- Bedford's matches average 1.21 second-half goals
- Cray's matches average 1.93 second-half goals
- Bedford scored in only three of their last six second halves
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance51%

Recent Form

Bedford Town

L0-1ChesterOct 10NAT

W3-1Wingate & FinchleyOct 6FAC

D2-2Wingate & FinchleyOct 3FAC

D1-1HerefordSep 26NAT

W2-1King's Lynn TownSep 19FAC

L1-2Spalding UnitedSep 12NAT

W2-1Worksop TownSep 8NAT

W1-0RadcliffeSep 5NAT

W1-0AFC Telford UnitedAug 31NAT

W3-1Spennymoor TownAug 29NAT

L1-4SouthportAug 22NAT

W2-1BuxtonAug 18NAT

L2-3Darlington 1883Aug 15NAT

L0-1Oxford CityAug 8NAT

L0-1Kettering TownAug 1FRI

Cray Wanderers

L1-2LewesOct 10NON

W3-0Chippenham TownOct 3FAC

W5-1Maldon & TiptreeSep 29NON

W2-0Maidstone UtdSep 22FAC

D1-1Maidstone UtdSep 19FAC

D3-3St Albans CitySep 15NON

L2-3Enfield TownSep 12NON

W1-0LewesSep 8FAC

D2-2LewesSep 5FAC

W4-1Welling UnitedAug 31NON

W2-1Eastbourne BoroughAug 22NON

L1-2Carshalton AthleticAug 15NON

D0-0CheshuntAug 11NON

D1-1Wingate & FinchleyAug 8NON

W3-1Folkestone InvictaJul 14FRI

Squad & Injuries

Bedford Town

17 available

Attackers7

Midfielders5

Defenders3

Goalkeeper2

Cray Wanderers

1 available

Attackers0

Midfielders1

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Bedford Town0Cray Wanderers0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Cray Wanderers

Under 2.5

Cray Wanderers

Yes

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 10 landed

Recent Form

Bedford Town

Cray Wanderers

Squad & Injuries

Bedford Town

Cray Wanderers