Frosinone4Sassuolo2

HT 3–2Fri 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 21–14On targetOn target 10–6CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 18:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Frosinone's four wins in five home matches meet a Sassuolo side still without an away victory.

The home side look likelier to take the points, though Sassuolo have scored in all six recent games and the last meeting finished 1-1. Several prices offer something, among them Frosinone at 2.4 and both teams to score No at 2.75.

Context

Sassuolo replaced Leysen with Cas Odenthal in the 26th minute at the Mapei, and reports on 12 October described a suspected sprain of the left knee with possible ligament damage, while also indicating the club had decided to sign a free agent as cover. Leysen had started that match in a back four alongside Ćaleta-Car, so the injury removes a first-choice defender for the trip to Frosinone and forces Sassuolo to reshuffle centrally. The exact diagnosis and expected recovery were still pending scan results, so the scale of the drop-off is not yet fixed.
- Fedde Leysen was forced off in the 26th minute of Sassuolo's 1-1 draw with Milan on 11 October after a left-knee injury, and Cas Odenthal replaced him.
- Gianluca Di Marzio reported on 12 October a suspected sprain of the left knee for Leysen and fear of a long absence.
- Cronache di spogliatoio described a twisting of the left knee in a challenge with Pulisic and concern over possible ligament involvement.
- CalcioNews24 reported on 12 October that Sassuolo had decided to sign a free agent following the injury.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Idzes, who also captains Indonesia, missed the Milan draw with the quadriceps tear he suffered in September. He had been a first-choice centre-back, and his continued absence leaves Sassuolo short of established senior defenders. With Leysen now injured too, the pairing in front of Murić for the Frosinone match is likely to be improvised. Sassuolo have not given a return date, so it is unclear whether Idzes could be involved in this round.
- Jay Idzes has been out with a quadriceps muscle tear since September and missed Sassuolo's 1-1 draw with Milan on 11 October.
- Indonesian outlet Inilah reported Sassuolo coach Alberto Aquilani saying most injured players were recovering while Idzes remained sidelined.
- Idzes also captains the Indonesia national team and had been a first-choice centre-back for Sassuolo.
- J. Idzes started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Schira reported that Odenthal stayed at Sassuolo after summer interest from Modena and Sampdoria, initially fifth in the pecking order, and has since scored against Atalanta and Milan. Having replaced the injured Leysen and equalised against Milan, he is the obvious candidate to start alongside Ćaleta-Car at Frosinone, and his presence at attacking set pieces is a live threat. The two-goal run is a short sample and his starting place has not been confirmed.
- Cas Odenthal replaced the injured Fedde Leysen and scored Sassuolo's equaliser in the 1-1 draw with Milan on 11 October.
- Nicolò Schira reported that Odenthal had been close to a summer move to Serie B and has now scored in two consecutive appearances, against Atalanta and Milan.
- C. Odenthal started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Raimondo had been a doubt with an Achilles problem but started at Napoli on 10 October and led the Frosinone attack, with Bîrligea and Grillitsch absent. His four Serie A goals put him among the early leading scorers and make him the focal point of the promoted side's forward play. Sassuolo's defence is already missing Idzes and may lose Leysen, so Raimondo's physical condition and link-up with Kvernadze and Ghedjemis are central to how Frosinone approach the match. He finished the Napoli game but had been managing a knock.
- Antonio Raimondo started and led the Frosinone attack in the 3-0 defeat at Napoli on 10 October after recovering from an Achilles problem.
- Frosinone were without forward Daniel Bîrligea and midfielder Florian Grillitsch for that match.
- Raimondo has scored four Serie A goals this season.
- A. Raimondo started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:26 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Frosinone have won four of five home matches while Sassuolo have not won away this season, so the home side carry the larger share.
- Frosinone home split: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 2.8 per home game
- Sassuolo away split: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, conceding 1.8 per away game
- Frosinone 9 competitive matches: 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFrosinoneEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Both sides' first-half numbers are low, and half-time stalemates are common in such matches.
- Sassuolo first-half goals: 0.5 overall and 0.2 away
- Sassuolo first-half conceded: 0.4 overall and 0.2 away
- Frosinone first-half conceded: 0.33 overall
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo concede heavily after the break away from home, favouring Frosinone in the second half.
- Frosinone home second-half goals: 1.0 per game
- Sassuolo away second-half conceded: 1.6 per game
- Sassuolo away second-half scored: 0.8 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFrosinoneEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frosinone have won four of five home matches while Sassuolo have not won away this season, so the home side carry the larger share. Sassuolo have been competitive without winning often, and the September cup meeting was level.
- Frosinone home split: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 2.8 per home game
- Sassuolo away split: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, conceding 1.8 per away game
- Sassuolo drew 2 of 10 competitive matches and 1 of 5 away
- The most recent meeting, in the Coppa Italia, finished 1-1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFrosinone or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frosinone start strongly at home while Sassuolo rarely score before the break away from home. Both sides' first-half numbers are low, and half-time stalemates are common in such matches.
- Frosinone first-half goals: 1.33 overall and 1.8 at home
- Frosinone first-half conceded: 0.33 overall
- Sassuolo first-half goals: 0.5 overall and 0.2 away
- Sassuolo first-half conceded: 0.4 overall and 0.2 away
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFrosinone or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent games have produced goals at both ends, pointing to a lively total.
- Frosinone home matches average 3.6 total goals
- Sassuolo away matches average 2.8 total goals
- Sassuolo's last 6 matches all had both teams scoring
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo nearly always find a goal but rarely shut opponents out, so both sides scoring is likely.
- Sassuolo scored in all 6 recent matches and 8 of 10 overall
- Sassuolo away both-teams-scored in 4 of 5 matches
- Sassuolo kept just 1 clean sheet in 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frosinone's home scoring rate is high enough for two or more goals to be the likelier outcome.
- Frosinone score 2.8 per home match
- Frosinone home split: 4 wins from 5
- Frosinone scored 7 goals in 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFrosinone over 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo's away scoring is low and Frosinone concede little at home, favouring under two away goals.
- Sassuolo average 1.0 goals per away match
- Sassuolo away split produced 4 goals across 5 matches
- Frosinone conceded 0.8 per home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSassuolo under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo's consistent scoring makes it more likely Frosinone concede at least once.
- Sassuolo scored in 8 of 10 competitive matches
- Sassuolo scored in all 6 recent matches
- Frosinone conceded 0.8 per home game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSassuolo to scoreEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Frosinone's strong first-half home record makes at least one goal before the break likely.
- Frosinone home first-half total averages 2.0 goals
- Frosinone score 1.33 first-half goals overall
- Sassuolo away first-half total averages 0.4 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
The first-half scoring numbers at both ends point strongly away from both teams scoring early.
- Sassuolo first-half scored 0.5 and conceded 0.4 overall
- Frosinone home first-half conceded 0.2 per game
- Sassuolo away first-half goals 0.2 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance87%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner counts sit around ten to twelve, putting the higher side slightly ahead.
- Frosinone matches average 12.1 corners combined
- Sassuolo matches average 9.8 corners combined
- Frosinone opposition corners average 6.2 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frosinone's matches are shot-heavy while Sassuolo's are moderate, leaving the line finely balanced.
- Frosinone matches average 36.2 total shots
- Frosinone opposition shots average 19.6
- Sassuolo matches average 29.2 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 31.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average more than four cards, favouring the higher side.
- Frosinone total cards average 4.4 per match
- Sassuolo total cards average 4.3 per match
- Card samples cover only 8 and 9 matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%