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Predictions graded

ESS1JSK1

HT 1–1Wed 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 03:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Sétif's home record meets a Kabylie team that has won both home league games but lost its only away match, and Kabylie won the most recent meeting 5-1 in May.

Sétif are the likelier winners, though that reading is low confidence. Of the prices reviewed, Over 2.5 goals at 2.5 is the one with an edge; Under 2.5 at 1.44, first-half Over 0.5 at 1.5 and both teams to score 'no' at 1.6 ask for more than the evidence supports.

Context

Al Hourani started ES Sétif's 0-0 draw at MC Oran on 8 October and was sent off late in the game. A red card in the Algerian top flight normally triggers an automatic ban, so the hosts are likely to be without a starting defender when JS Kabylie visit. The sending-off has so far been reported only by an unofficial club account, with no disciplinary ruling or confirmed ban length, so the exact defensive reshuffle remains uncertain.
- Hadi Al Hourani was sent off in the closing stages of ES Sétif's 0-0 draw at MC Oran on 8 October 2026.
- Al Hourani was in ES Sétif's starting line-up for that match.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:34 · Europe/Bucharest
Sisa came off the bench to score and add two assists in ES Sétif's 5-1 win over CS Constantine on 19 September, underlining what he adds in the attacking third. He then missed the 0-0 draw at MC Oran on 8 October with an injury, and no return date has been given. If he is still out, the hosts lose a creative option for a fixture in which the onus is on them to break down the visitors. The absence is reported by a single Jordan-focused account and his recovery has not been confirmed, so his involvement is uncertain rather than ruled out.
- Sisa scored and provided two assists after coming off the bench in ES Sétif's 5-1 win over CS Constantine on 19 September 2026.
- Sisa was absent from ES Sétif's 0-0 draw at MC Oran on 8 October 2026 because of injury.
To watchSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:34 · Europe/Bucharest
The five recorded meetings, from 15 March 2024 to 8 May 2026, produced three home wins, one draw and one away win.
The 5-1 on 8 May 2026 shows the fixture can run away from the visiting side, and it is why a higher-scoring game is worth considering here. The other four meetings were lower-scoring: 1-0, 2-0, 2-2 and 0-1, so the recent series offers no routine goal bursts.
- JS Kabylie beat ES Sétif 5-1 in Ligue 1 on 8 May 2026, the most recent of five recorded head-to-head meetings.
- The other four meetings since 15 March 2024 finished 1-0 to ES Sétif (19 December 2025), 2-0 to JS Kabylie (12 June 2025), 2-2 (13 December 2024) and 0-1 to ES Sétif (15 March 2024).
- Three of the five meetings were won by the home side, one was drawn and one was won away.
Belhocini is carrying a heel injury sustained before JS Kabylie's 1-0 win over ASO Chlef on 9 October, and he is described as uncertain for the follow-up league game at ES Sétif. Because the problem predates that victory, it has already affected his availability in the current run of fixtures. If he does not feature, JS Kabylie lose an attacking squad option for a match where their depth from the bench may matter. The report comes from a single specialist league account with no club or coach confirmation and no indication of a replacement.
- Belhocini is uncertain for JS Kabylie's next match, an away fixture at Sétif, because of a heel injury.
- The heel problem was sustained before JS Kabylie's 1-0 win over ASO Chlef on 9 October 2026.
To watchSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:34 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.50fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 66.7%

−0.7ppshort

The combined first-half scoring rates make at least one goal more likely than not.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Both defences record shutouts fairly often, and Kabylie's league scoring is thin.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sétif's home form and Kabylie's blank away record point to a home edge, though the visitors won the most recent meeting.
- ES Sétif are 6W-1D-1L in home matches in this window, scoring 2.25 goals per home game.
- JS Kabylie have lost their only away league match this season and have 0 goals in it.
- The last five head-to-head meetings produced four home wins and one draw.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostESSEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.91
The read
First halves in this fixture profile as tight and low-scoring.
- Sétif average 0.6 first-half goals overall.
- Kabylie average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.4 against.
- Four of Sétif's last six matches were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals are modest for both teams, keeping a level half plausible.
- Sétif average 0.8 second-half goals for and 0.47 against.
- Kabylie average 0.53 second-half goals for and 0.53 against.
- Kabylie's last three league matches were all 1-0 or 0-1 with few late goals.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sétif's home first-half scoring gives them the better share of the early lead. First halves in this fixture profile as tight and low-scoring.
- Sétif average 1.0 first-half goals at home.
- Kabylie concede 0.4 first-half goals per match overall.
- Sétif average 0.6 first-half goals overall.
- Kabylie average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.4 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonESS or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two of the tighter defences in the division suggest a low total.
- Sétif average 1.4 goals for and 1.0 against across 15 matches.
- Kabylie average 1.33 for and 0.93 against across 15 matches.
- Kabylie's last three league matches produced 1, 1 and 1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both defences record shutouts fairly often, and Kabylie's league scoring is thin.
- Sétif kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Kabylie kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Kabylie have scored only 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kabylie's defence and Sétif's modest overall scoring keep a big home tally unlikely.
- Sétif average 1.4 goals for across 15 matches.
- Kabylie have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Sétif were held to 0 by Ben Aknoun at home this season.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonESS under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kabylie's away scoring is limited and Sétif defend solidly at home.
- Kabylie have 2 goals in 3 league games.
- Kabylie's away average is 1.0 goals per match.
- Sétif have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonJSK under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sétif concede in most matches, so a full shutout is not the likelier outcome.
- Sétif conceded in 10 of 15 matches in this window.
- Sétif conceded in both recent home league matches.
- Kabylie scored in 6 of 7 away matches in this window.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonJSK to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sétif's home scoring makes a Kabylie clean sheet unlikely.
- Sétif average 1.4 goals for across 15 matches.
- Sétif average 2.25 goals per home match.
- Kabylie conceded in 6 of 7 away matches in this window.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonESS to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Clean-sheet wins have been a minority of Sétif's results.
- Sétif conceded in 10 of 15 matches.
- Kabylie score in most away appearances in the wider window.
- Only 5 of Sétif's 15 matches ended as clean-sheet wins.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
The combined first-half scoring rates make at least one goal more likely than not.
- Sétif average 0.6 first-half goals overall and 1.0 at home.
- Kabylie average 0.8 first-half goals and 0.4 first-half goals against.
- Kabylie's last three league games all had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring rates on both sides make two early goals unlikely.
- Sétif concede 0.53 first-half goals per match.
- Kabylie concede 0.4 first-half goals per match.
- Kabylie have scored 2 goals in 3 league games all season.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring across both sides favours one goal or none.
- Sétif average 1.25 second-half goals at home.
- Kabylie average 0.53 second-half goals overall.
- Kabylie's last three league matches produced no more than one second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance64%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L5-1JS KabylievES SetifMay 8, 2026L1

L1-0ES SetifvJS KabylieDec 19, 2025L1

L2-0JS KabylievES SetifJun 12, 2025L1

D2-2ES SetifvJS KabylieDec 13, 2024L1

W0-1JS KabylievES SetifMar 15, 2024L1

JSK: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Ligue 1 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	ESS	4	1	1	2	5-3	4	DWLL
7	JSK	3	2	0	1	2-1	6	WLW

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

ESS

D0-0MC OranOct 8L1

W5-1CS ConstantineSep 19L1

L0-1CR BelouizdadSep 11L1

L0-1Ben AknounSep 3L1

W2-0Paradou ACJun 5L1

W1-0MC AlgerMay 20L1

W3-1CR BelouizdadMay 16L1

L1-5JS KabylieMay 8L1

W3-0MC OranApr 17L1

L0-1Olympique AkbouApr 11L1

D1-1Ben AknounApr 5L1

L0-2USM AlgerMar 18L1

L0-1ASO ChlefMar 6L1

W3-0MostaganemFeb 28L1

W2-1MB RouissetFeb 20L1

JSK

W1-0ASO ChlefOct 9L1

L0-1TémouchentSep 17L1

W1-0MB RouissetSep 4L1

D0-0CR BelouizdadJun 5L1

W2-1ASO ChlefMay 20L1

W5-1ES SetifMay 8L1

L1-2MC OranApr 29L1

D1-1Olympique AkbouApr 22L1

D1-1MB RouissetApr 17L1

D2-2CS ConstantineApr 10L1

D1-1El BayadhApr 5L1

W3-1Ben AknounApr 1L1

W1-0USM AlgerMar 25L1

L0-1JS SaouraMar 18L1

L1-2KhenchelaMar 13L1

Squad & Injuries

ESS

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

JSK

24 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2