II Liga - EastFull time

Predictions graded

Stal Stalowa Wola3Slask Wroclaw II2

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges4–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 23:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Stalowa Wola's home form, two wins, a draw and a defeat with 10 goals in four league games, meets a Śląsk II side that has won all three recent meetings.

Goals look the likeliest story: both teams have featured in high-scoring games, and Over 2.5 at 1.55 needs 64.5% when the form points to 63%, with both teams to score at 1.53 also asking more than the records justify. No quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

Stal Stalowa Wola changed their head coach on 15 September 2026, when assistant Mariusz Arczewski replaced Jarosław Skrobacz, and the club also ended its cooperation with sporting director Leândro in the same period. The two league games since produced a 2-0 home win over Resovia Rzeszów and a 4-2 defeat at Znicz Pruszków, Stal's last outing before this fixture. With a new head coach still settling on his line-up and approach, the home team's set-up is the least fixed part of the match, which is why the handover carries more weight here than the clubs' league positions.
- Jarosław Skrobacz stopped performing first-team coaching duties at Stal Stalowa Wola on 15 September 2026.
- Mariusz Arczewski, previously the assistant, took over the first-team coaching duties at that point.
- By 17 September 2026 the club had also ended its cooperation with sporting director Leândro.
- Stal Stalowa Wola's next two league games after the change were a 2-0 home win over Resovia Rzeszów on 20 September and a 4-2 defeat at Znicz Pruszków on 4 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 23:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Śląsk II Wrocław arrive at Stalowa Wola with a coach, Michał Hetel, who three weeks earlier ended the reserve side's five-match league losing sequence with a 2-0 home win over Hutnik Kraków. The win came against a Hutnik team that started that round fourth in the table, which makes it firmer evidence of recovery than a result against a bottom-half side. Because the team is a reserve side, its personnel can shift with the parent club's needs, so Hetel's settled core is not guaranteed week to week.
- Śląsk II Wrocław had lost their previous five league matches before beating Hutnik Kraków 2-0 on 20 September 2026.
- Michał Hetel was the coach in charge of Śląsk II Wrocław for that 2-0 win.
- Hutnik Kraków started that round of fixtures fourth in the II liga table.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 23:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Śląsk II Wrocław have been unable to shut teams out on their travels.
The six-match away sample runs from 2 June to 13 September 2026, so it reaches past the current league run. Śląsk II scored in five of those six games and averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.33 conceded, which points to open away matches. That keeps the clean-sheet question live for both sides in Stalowa Wola, where Stal have scored in all four of their home league games.
- Śląsk II Wrocław kept no clean sheet in six away matches between 2 June and 13 September 2026.
- They scored in five of those six away matches, and both teams scored in five.
- In that six-match away sample they averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The clubs' previous meeting produced five goals and a 3-2 win for Śląsk II Wrocław, and Saturday's fixture is their first reunion at the same level since then. This time the game is at Stalowa Wola's ground, so the setting of the fixture has changed even though the opponent and competition have not. The result is now more than a year old and predates both clubs' current squads and campaigns, so it frames how familiar the teams are with each other rather than supporting a present-day edge.
- Śląsk II Wrocław beat Stal Stalowa Wola 3-2 on 30 August 2025 in the most recent meeting between the clubs.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 23:27 · Europe/BucharestStal Stalowa Wola match archivestal1938.pl · 30 Aug 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.25fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 80%

−3.0ppshort

Stal's tight home first-half defence makes two first-half goals unlikely.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

A goalless first half has been rare in these two teams' recent matches.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 64.5%

−1.5ppshort

Both sides are regularly involved in high-scoring matches and neither has been defending reliably.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 65.4%

−3.4ppshort

Both teams score regularly and Śląsk II rarely shut opponents out on the road.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stal's home results and scoring rate are clearly better than Śląsk II's away output, so the hosts carry the largest single share.
- Stal are 2W-1D-1L at home in II Liga, scoring 10 and conceding 5 in 4 home games
- Śląsk II are 1W-0D-3L away in the league, conceding 11 in 4 away games
- Stal's home split averages 2.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonStal Stalowa WolaEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Half-time scorelines are frequently level and neither side has dominated opening periods recently.
- Śląsk II were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Stal were level at half-time in 1 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stal's home scoring is concentrated after the break, which gives them the largest second-half share.
- Stal average 1.75 second-half goals and concede 1.0 per home game
- Śląsk II average 1.17 second-half goals and concede 1.5 per away game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostStal Stalowa WolaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stal's home results and scoring rate are clearly better than Śląsk II's away output, so the hosts carry the largest single share. Śląsk II's head-to-head record and away scoring give them a genuine chance despite sitting below Stal in the table.
- Stal are 2W-1D-1L at home in II Liga, scoring 10 and conceding 5 in 4 home games
- Śląsk II are 1W-0D-3L away in the league, conceding 11 in 4 away games
- Śląsk II won all three recent meetings with Stal: 3-2, 1-0 and 3-2
- Śląsk II average 2.0 league goals per away game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonStal Stalowa Wola or Slask Wroclaw IIEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stal's stronger first-half home numbers give them the better share but not a clear first-half advantage. Half-time scorelines are frequently level and neither side has dominated opening periods recently.
- Stal average 0.75 first-half goals for and 0.25 against in 4 home games
- Śląsk II average 0.83 first-half goals for and against in 6 away games
- Śląsk II were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Stal were level at half-time in 1 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonStal Stalowa Wola or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals8 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both sides are regularly involved in high-scoring matches and neither has been defending reliably.
- Stal's last six competitive matches averaged 4.0 goals
- Śląsk II's last six averaged 3.5 goals
- Stal home games average 3.75 goals (2.5 scored, 1.25 conceded)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both teams score regularly and Śląsk II rarely shut opponents out on the road.
- Stal scored in 11 of 13 competitive matches and in both home games shown in the recent sample
- Śląsk II scored in 5 of 6 away matches
- Śląsk II kept no clean sheet in 6 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stal's home scoring rate sits just above the two-goal threshold and they have cleared it in recent home games.
- Stal average 2.5 goals per home league game
- Stal scored 2 and 3 goals in their two most recent home matches shown
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonStal Stalowa Wola over 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stal's home defence and Śląsk II's uneven away scoring point slightly towards a limited away tally.
- Stal conceded 5 goals in 4 home league games
- Śląsk II scored 0 or 1 goal in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSlask Wroclaw II under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Śląsk II score consistently on their travels and Stal concede often enough to make a shutout unlikely.
- Śląsk II scored in 5 of 6 away matches
- Stal concede 2.0 goals per competitive match overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSlask Wroclaw II to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Śląsk II's away defensive record and Stal's home scoring makes a visiting shutout unlikely.
- Śląsk II kept no clean sheet in 6 away matches
- Stal scored in 11 of 13 competitive matches, including 10 goals in 4 home league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonStal Stalowa Wola to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
A goalless first half has been rare in these two teams' recent matches.
- All six of Stal's most recent matches contained a first-half goal
- Śląsk II's last six matches produced first-half goals in 4 of 6
- Combined first-half rates are 0.75 for Stal at home and 0.83 for Śląsk II away
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Stal's tight home first-half defence makes two first-half goals unlikely.
- Stal concede just 0.25 first-half goals per home game
- Śląsk II kept a 0-0 half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these two teams have regularly produced multiple goals.
- Stal's home second-half totals average 2.75 goals per game
- Śląsk II's away second-half totals average 2.67 goals per game
- Three of Stal's last six and four of Śląsk II's last six matches had two or more second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 3W

L3-2Śląsk Wrocław IIvStal Stalowa WolaAug 5, 2026CUP

L0-1Stal Stalowa WolavŚląsk Wrocław IIMar 13, 2026II

L3-2Śląsk Wrocław IIvStal Stalowa WolaAug 30, 2025II

Slask Wroclaw II unbeaten in 3 meetings3.7 goals/game avg

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	10	3	1	6	16-21	10	LWLDL
15	Slask Wroclaw II	9	3	0	6	15-17	9	WLLLL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Stal Stalowa Wola

L2-4Znicz PruszkówOct 4II

W2-0Resovia RzeszówSep 20II

L0-5Podhale Nowy TargSep 12II

D3-3Zawisza BydgoszczSep 4II

L1-2Hutnik KrakówAug 29II

L0-2Chojniczanka ChojniceAug 21II

W4-0Avia ŚwidnikAug 16II

L1-3Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 8II

L2-3Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 5CUP

L1-2Tychy 71Jul 31II

W2-0Legia Warszawa IIJul 25II

W2-1Widzew IIJul 18FRI

D2-2Avia ŚwidnikJul 11FRI

W1-0Hutnik KrakówMay 30II

D2-2Resovia RzeszówMay 15II

Slask Wroclaw II

W2-0Hutnik KrakówSep 20II

L2-4Sandecja Nowy SączSep 13II

L0-1Olimpia GrudziądzSep 6II

W3-1BeskidSep 2CUP

L2-3Znicz PruszkówAug 29II

L0-3Tychy 71Aug 23II

L1-2Chojniczanka ChojniceAug 15II

W2-0Górnik ŁęcznaAug 9II

W3-2Stal Stalowa WolaAug 5CUP

W5-1Resovia RzeszówAug 1II

L1-3Podhale Nowy TargJul 25II

L3-4Barycz SułówJul 18FRI

L1-2Slavia Praha IIJul 11FRI

L0-1Ruch ChorzówJul 4FRI

L1-2PodbeskidzieJun 2II

Squad & Injuries

Stal Stalowa Wola

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Slask Wroclaw II

33 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4