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Predictions graded

Tokyo4Shonan Bellmare0

HT 2–0Wed 7 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 00:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Tokyo, a division higher and on a four-match winning run with one goal conceded in their last six, are the likelier winners, though the tie is at Shonan's own Hiratsuka ground.

Tokyo to win in 90 minutes at 1.53 asks too much. Under 2.5 goals at 1.95, both teams to score: No at 1.78, the first-half draw at 2.4, under 0.5 first-half goals at 3 and the match draw at 4 are the prices with something to offer.

Context

The tie is staged at Shonan's own ground even though FC Tokyo are the J1 club in the draw, and the fixture is listed as FC Tokyo versus Shonan Bellmare. Across the round, seven of the ten matches on 7 October are played at the ground of the club listed second, so the fixture order does not describe who is at home. That gives the J2 side the venue, the dressing rooms and the local support on a single-elimination night, while FC Tokyo travel west to Hiratsuka with no second leg to fall back on.
- The third-round tie between FC Tokyo and Shonan Bellmare is scheduled for Wednesday 7 October with a 19:00 kick-off at Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka.
- The winning side advances to the last 16 of the competition.
- Shonan's next league fixture, on 11 October, is also set for Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 00:15 · Europe/Bucharest
A Wednesday knockout tie followed by a Saturday league game against Urawa Reds is the tightest gap in FC Tokyo's current sequence. The cup tie therefore falls in a week where progress in the Emperor's Cup has to be weighed against the league match that follows immediately. How the minutes are shared between the two games is unresolved, and that is the open question for the line-up at Hiratsuka.
- FC Tokyo's fixture list places the J1 League match against Urawa Reds on 10 October, after the 7 October cup tie.
- FC Tokyo's October sequence runs cup tie on 7 October, then Urawa Reds on 10 October, with two days in between.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 00:15 · Europe/Bucharest
The Asian Games final finished on 3 October, four days before this tie, so Ishii comes back into the squad midweek rather than after a full preparation block with his club. He started the final and scored earlier in the tournament, which is the current anchor for his role. Whether that turns into a starting place so soon after a final is unresolved, and a strong international tournament does not by itself settle his minutes here.
- H. Ishii started Japan's under-21 Asian Games final against South Korea on 3 October, a 0-1 defeat, and hit the post with a shot from range.
- He scored Japan's third goal in a 3-0 group-stage win over Thailand on 23 September.
- H. Ishii started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- H. Yamada started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when H. Ishii did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 00:15 · Europe/Bucharest
The split covers Shonan's own-ground matches between 10 May and 19 September 2026, six matches in total.
Shonan have the ground and the local support for this third-round tie, yet the tracked window shows only two wins from six home matches, the last of them on 19 September. That window closes before their current four-match unbeaten run in J2, so it reads as background rather than a verdict on the side they will field here. Tokyo arrive having conceded once in their last six matches, which is the stronger recent signal going into a knockout night.
- Shonan Bellmare home split, tracked competitive window: 6 matches, 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, from 10 May to 19 September 2026.
- The six-match sample spans four months and is a small base rather than a full season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Tokyo play a division higher and are on a four-match winning run with a very tight defence, while Shonan score fewer than a goal a game and have a poor record on their own ground.
- FC Tokyo: 7W-3D-3L in 13 competitive matches, 1.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game
- FC Tokyo have won their last four matches in all competitions and conceded once in their last six, with five clean sheets
- Shonan Bellmare: 5W-4D-5L in 14 competitive matches, 0.86 goals scored per game
- Shonan's home record this season reads 2W-1D-3L from six matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTokyoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Both teams' first halves are low-scoring, with Shonan in particular rarely leading or trailing at the interval, so going in level is the most likely single outcome.
- FC Tokyo average 0.77 first-half goals for and 0.54 against
- Shonan average 0.36 first-half goals for and 0.29 against
- FC Tokyo were level at half-time in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tokyo's goals come mainly after the interval and they have been scoring late in games, which makes them the stronger second-half side.
- FC Tokyo average 1.15 second-half goals scored and 0.54 conceded
- Shonan average 0.5 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- FC Tokyo scored after half-time in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonTokyoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Tokyo play a division higher and are on a four-match winning run with a very tight defence, while Shonan score fewer than a goal a game and have a poor record on their own ground. Recent meetings between these clubs have been tight and low-scoring, and knockout ties often stay level for long spells when one side defends as well as Shonan have.
- FC Tokyo: 7W-3D-3L in 13 competitive matches, 1.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game
- FC Tokyo have won their last four matches in all competitions and conceded once in their last six, with five clean sheets
- Three of the last five meetings between the clubs were drawn
- Those five meetings produced seven goals in total, an average of 1.4 per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTokyo or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tokyo carry the stronger overall profile into the first half, though neither side has started matches quickly enough to make an early lead likely. Both teams' first halves are low-scoring, with Shonan in particular rarely leading or trailing at the interval, so going in level is the most likely single outcome.
- FC Tokyo average 0.77 first-half goals per competitive match and 0.54 conceded
- Shonan average 0.36 first-half goals scored per competitive match
- FC Tokyo average 0.77 first-half goals for and 0.54 against
- Shonan average 0.36 first-half goals for and 0.29 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTokyo or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both sides are low-scoring in this fixture and Shonan rarely turn chances into goals, so a third goal in normal time looks less likely than not.
- Shonan average 0.86 goals scored per game across 14 competitive matches
- FC Tokyo concede 1.08 per game and let in one goal in their last six matches
- The last five head-to-head meetings produced 0-0, 2-2, 1-0, 0-0 and 0-2
- Four of those five meetings finished with two goals or fewer
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Tokyo are barely conceding at the moment and Shonan's scoring output is thin, so at least one side being blanked looks the likelier outcome.
- FC Tokyo conceded one goal in their last six matches, keeping five clean sheets
- Shonan Bellmare average 0.86 goals per competitive game this season
- Only one of the last five head-to-head meetings had both teams scoring
- Shonan have three clean sheets in their last seven matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shonan's defence has held up reasonably well and Tokyo may be rotated ahead of their weekend league game, making one goal or none a realistic outcome for them.
- Shonan concede 1.07 goals per competitive game and kept a clean sheet in five of 14 matches
- FC Tokyo scored one goal or fewer in two of their last six matches
- FC Tokyo's overall scoring average is 1.92 per game across 13 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostTokyo under 1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shonan's scoring output is the thinnest part of their game and they face a defence that has barely conceded recently.
- Shonan Bellmare average 0.86 goals scored per competitive game across 14 matches
- Shonan scored two or more in only two of their last six matches
- Shonan failed to score in three of their 14 competitive matches this season
- FC Tokyo conceded one goal in their last six matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonShonan Bellmare under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shonan have been finding at least one goal in most recent games, and a cup tie away from home for a rotated Tokyo side raises the chance of conceding.
- Shonan have scored in each of their last four J2 matches
- Shonan average 1.0 goal scored per match in their eight away-listed fixtures
- FC Tokyo conceded in the 1-1 draw at Shimizu S-pulse on 2 September
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostShonan Bellmare to scoreEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
On combined first-half scoring rates at least one goal before the break is more likely than a goalless opening period.
- FC Tokyo average 0.77 first-half goals scored per game
- Shonan average 0.36 first-half goals scored per game
- A goal was scored before half-time in three of FC Tokyo's last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both sides score rarely before the interval, so goals at both ends in the first half would require an unusually open opening period.
- FC Tokyo average 0.77 first-half goals for and 0.54 against
- Shonan average 0.36 first-half goals for and 0.29 against
- No recent match for either side shows both teams scoring before half-time
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shonan's second halves rarely produce many goals and the overall head-to-head record suggests a low-scoring finish.
- Shonan average 0.5 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- FC Tokyo average 0.54 second-half goals conceded
- The last five head-to-head meetings averaged 1.4 goals per match in total
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D0-0FC TokyovShonan BellmareFeb 8, 2026FRI

D2-2Shonan BellmarevFC TokyoAug 16, 2025J1

L1-0Shonan BellmarevFC TokyoMay 21, 2025J-L

D0-0FC TokyovShonan BellmareMar 8, 2025J1

W0-2FC TokyovShonan BellmareNov 3, 2024J1

Tokyo: 3 clean sheetsShonan Bellmare: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Tokyo

W2-0Ehime FCSep 29J-L

W1-0Nagoya GrampusSep 19J1

W2-0Gamba OsakaSep 12J1

W2-0Kyoto SangaSep 6J1

D1-1Shimizu S-pulseSep 2J1

W3-0V-varen NagasakiAug 29J1

W6-0Parceiro NaganoAug 26EMP

W2-0JEF United ChibaAug 21J1

D2-2Vissel KobeAug 15J1

L1-5Machida ZelviaAug 8J1

L0-1Borussia DortmundAug 1FRI

W2-1Nagoya GrampusJul 21FRI

L1-3Cerezo OsakaJun 6J1

D2-2Cerezo OsakaMay 30J1

L0-1KashimaMay 23J1

Shonan Bellmare

D1-1Fujieda MYFCOct 3J2

W2-1ImabariSep 26J2

D1-1Blaublitz AkitaSep 19J2

W1-0Vanraure HachinoheSep 12J2

L1-3Vegalta SendaiSep 5J2

D2-2Omiya ArdijaAug 29J2

W1-0Reinmeer AomoriAug 26EMP

D0-0Tegevajaro MiyazakiAug 22J2

W1-0Montedio YamagataAug 15J2

W1-0Oita TrinitaAug 8J2

W4-1Kyoto SangaJul 17FRI

L0-1Sagan TosuJun 6J2/

L1-3Montedio YamagataMay 24J2/

L0-2Vegalta SendaiMay 16J2/

L0-1Yokohama FCMay 10J2/

Squad & Injuries

Tokyo

30 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Shonan Bellmare

37 available

Attackers8

Midfielders14

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Draw

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Draw

No

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 8 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Tokyo

Shonan Bellmare

Squad & Injuries

Tokyo

Shonan Bellmare