Emperor CupAETFeatured

Shimizu S-Pulse1V-Varen Nagasaki1

HT 1–1Wed 7 Oct 2026, 10:00

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 00:18 · Europe/Bucharest

A one-off Emperor's Cup tie at Nihondaira: 90 minutes then extra time and penalties, with a last-16 place to the winner.

Shimizu's three-match winning run and home ground give them a narrow edge, but Nagasaki won here in April and have the better season record, so a low-scoring start is likely. Two reviewed prices hold up: no goals in the first half at 2.8 and the first half level at 2.2. The match-winner, total-goals and both-teams-to-score prices don't.

Context

The format gives the tie real weight: one match decides a last-16 place and a level score after 90 minutes brings extra time and penalties, so bench use and in-game decisions matter more than in a league fixture. Shimizu are on a three-match winning run, two of those wins at home, while Nagasaki must travel with a weak away set of results and a Levain Cup defeat on 29 September behind them. Rotation for the first game of a run of fixtures is an open question, and no injury or lineup information is available for either side.

Yoshida manages Shimizu and takes the tie into a run of three straight wins, over Avispa Fukuoka, JEF United Chiba and Zweigen Kanazawa. All five goals in that sequence came after half-time, and Shimizu were level at the interval in two of the three matches, so the opening period is the part of their game with the least margin for error in a single-match knockout. The 29 September win at Kanazawa turned after half-time changes, which is why bench use and the manager's in-game adjustments carry weight here. The counterpoint is that the pattern has still produced three wins, so a slow start is a risk rather than a habit that has cost Shimizu results.
- Takayuki Yoshida is the manager of Shimizu S-Pulse, who host the third-round tie.
- Yoshida and forward Kosuke Kinoshita are the two Shimizu figures featured in the build-up to the tie.
- Shimizu have won their last three matches: 1-0 at home to Avispa Fukuoka on 12 September, 2-1 at home to JEF United Chiba on 19 September, and 2-0 away to Zweigen Kanazawa in the Levain Cup on 29 September.
- All five goals in that run came after half-time, with Shimizu level at the interval against Fukuoka and Kanazawa and behind at the interval against Chiba.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 00:15 · Europe/Bucharest
The tie is the first match in a block of consecutive fixtures for Shimizu, and a win would carry momentum into the league programme. The main question around the home side is how many changes are made to the team that won 2-0 at Zweigen Kanazawa on 29 September, with the shape of the squad across the run of games the central storyline. Shimizu's squad has been strengthened this season, so rotation in a cup tie is a realistic option rather than a necessity. No lineup information is available yet, so the scale of any rotation remains open.
- The third-round tie against Nagasaki is the first match in a run of consecutive fixtures for Shimizu, and a win would carry momentum into the league programme.
- Preview material on the tie centres on the composition of the Shimizu lineup for the first game of the run.
- Shimizu's squad has more depth this season, with new arrivals giving the manager options to rotate.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 00:15 · Europe/Bucharest
For Nagasaki, it is a reminder that this venue has not been a barrier in 2026; for Shimizu, this is the home fixture against this opponent that they lost.
Nagasaki's April win at Shimizu is the most recent meeting between the clubs and came by a single goal, so a trip to Nihondaira has not been a barrier for them in 2026. Shimizu are the hosts, are on a three-match winning run and won the season's other league meeting 3-0 at Nagasaki, so the head-to-head picture is split rather than one-sided. A result from April says little about who lines up on 7 October; it is context for a tie that looks close, not a repeat of the same outcome.
- Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki, J1 League, 29 April 2026 — the most recent completed meeting between the two clubs.
For Nagasaki, the away record is the part of the season most likely to shape a tie played in Shizuoka.
Nagasaki's away results have been all-or-nothing rather than steady, with no draws and less than a goal a game scored at the other end. That profile suits a one-off tie against a host whose own scoring has arrived late in matches, so a tight game looks more likely than an open one. The two clean sheets in those six away fixtures are the counterweight: Nagasaki have kept road games quiet, meaning a single goal could settle the tie.
- Away aggregate, six matches, 6 June to 29 September 2026: 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 defeats, 2 clean sheets.
- Average of 0.83 goals scored per away match across those six fixtures.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

−9.7ppshort

The chance of both teams scoring in the first half is very low.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Shimizu S-Pulse or V-Varen Nagasaki

1.35fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 74.1%

−2.1ppshort

Shimizu's home advantage and recent winning run give them a narrow edge in a one-off cup tie. Nagasaki's overall record and away win at Shimizu show they can get a result.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

−2.8ppshort

Season averages point to a low-scoring match, especially with cautious cup play.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.88fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 53.2%

−0.2ppshort

Nagasaki's away scoring troubles and Shimizu's occasional blanks make a clean sheet for one side likely.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Shimizu S-Pulse

2.15fair 2.33

BetBugs 43% · Market 46.5%

−3.5ppshort

Shimizu's home advantage and recent winning run give them a narrow edge in a one-off cup tie.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Shimizu's home advantage and recent winning run give them a narrow edge in a one-off cup tie.
- Shimizu have won their last three matches, scoring all five goals after half-time.
- Shimizu's home record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 7 matches.
- V-Varen Nagasaki's away record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 6 matches.
- In the 2026 league meetings, each team won away: Shimizu 3-0 at Nagasaki, Nagasaki 2-1 at Shimizu.
BetBugs · Match WinnerShimizu S-PulseMarket price2.15Estimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both teams rarely score before half-time, making a draw the most likely first-half result.
- Shimizu have scored 0 first-half goals in 7 home matches.
- Nagasaki average 0.17 first-half goals away.
- Shimizu's last 6 matches had 4 first-half draws; Nagasaki's last 6 had 3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.20Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's second-half scoring and recent late goals give them the edge.
- Shimizu score 0.86 second-half goals at home and concede 0.86.
- All five goals in Shimizu's three-match winning run came after half-time.
- Nagasaki concede 1.17 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerShimizu S-PulseEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Shimizu's home advantage and recent winning run give them a narrow edge in a one-off cup tie. Nagasaki's overall record and away win at Shimizu show they can get a result.
- Shimizu have won their last three matches, scoring all five goals after half-time.
- Shimizu's home record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 7 matches.
- Nagasaki have 6 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 13 competitive matches, better than Shimizu's 4-2-7.
- Nagasaki beat Shimizu 2-1 at Shimizu in April 2026.
BetBugs · Double ChanceShimizu S-Pulse or V-Varen NagasakiMarket price1.35Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely score before half-time, making a draw the most likely first-half result. Nagasaki have a slight edge in first-half scoring, but it is still rare.
- Shimizu have scored 0 first-half goals in 7 home matches.
- Nagasaki average 0.17 first-half goals away.
- Nagasaki average 0.46 first-half goals overall and 0.17 away.
- Nagasaki scored first-half goals in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or V-Varen NagasakiEstimated chance85%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Season averages point to a low-scoring match, especially with cautious cup play.
- Shimizu average 0.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per match in 13 competitive games.
- Nagasaki average 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded in 13 competitive games.
- Shimizu's last 6 matches averaged 2.17 total goals; Nagasaki's last 6 averaged 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price1.73Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Nagasaki's away scoring troubles and Shimizu's occasional blanks make a clean sheet for one side likely.
- Nagasaki failed to score in 4 of 6 away matches.
- Shimizu failed to score in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Both teams scored in only 2 of Nagasaki's 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.88Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.80
The read
First-half goals are scarce for both teams.
- Shimizu average 0.08 first-half goals; Nagasaki 0.46 overall.
- Shimizu have scored 0 first-half goals at home.
- In Shimizu's last 6 matches, there were 2 first-half goals total.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price2.80Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
The chance of both teams scoring in the first half is very low.
- Shimizu have scored 0 first-half goals at home in 7 matches.
- Nagasaki have scored 1 first-half goal away in 6 matches.
- Both teams' first-half scoring averages are below 0.5.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.18Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves are the main source of goals for both teams.
- Shimizu's last 6 matches averaged 1.83 second-half goals.
- Nagasaki's last 6 matches averaged 1.83 second-half goals.
- Both teams score more after half-time than before.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nagasaki's very low away corner count points to fewer than nine total.
- Shimizu average 5.33 corners for and 4.5 against; Nagasaki 3.3 for and 4.9 against.
- Nagasaki average only 1.0 corner per away match.
- Shimizu's home corners total 5.43 for and 3.29 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to produce more than 21.5 shots.
- Shimizu's overall matches average 24.1 total shots.
- Nagasaki's overall matches average 25.0 total shots.
- Nagasaki's last four matches averaged 30 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 21.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target tend to exceed 6.5.
- Shimizu's overall matches average 7.1 total shots on target.
- Nagasaki's overall matches average 8.3 total shots on target.
- Nagasaki's last four matches averaged 10.5 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 6.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2Shimizu S-pulsevV-varen NagasakiApr 29, 2026J1

W0-3V-varen NagasakivShimizu S-pulseApr 5, 2026J1

D1-1Shimizu S-pulsevV-varen NagasakiSep 7, 2024J2

L4-1V-varen NagasakivShimizu S-pulseMar 10, 2024J2

L3-2Shimizu S-pulsevV-varen NagasakiJul 1, 2023J2

3.6 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Shimizu S-Pulse

W2-0KanazawaSep 29J-L

W2-1JEF United ChibaSep 19J1

W1-0Avispa FukuokaSep 12J1

L1-3Kawasaki FrontaleSep 6J1

D1-1FC TokyoSep 2J1

L0-1Kashiwa ReysolAug 29J1

L0-1Cerezo OsakaAug 22J1

L0-1Yokohama F. MarinosAug 15J1

W1-0Nagoya GrampusAug 8J1

W3-1Karlsruher SCJul 18FRI

W3-1PolessyaJul 14FRI

L0-3Yokohama F. MarinosJun 6J1

D1-1Yokohama F. MarinosMay 31J1

L1-2Gamba OsakaMay 24J1

L0-2Fagiano OkayamaMay 17J1

V-Varen Nagasaki

L0-2Gainare TottoriSep 29J-L

D1-1Cerezo OsakaSep 19J1

W2-0Nagoya GrampusSep 12J1

W1-0Kochi UnitedSep 9J-L

L1-3Vissel KobeSep 6J1

D2-2Gamba OsakaSep 2J1

L0-3FC TokyoAug 29J1

W3-2Ehime FCAug 26EMP

L2-4Kashiwa ReysolAug 21J1

L0-1Fagiano OkayamaAug 15J1

W2-1Kyoto SangaAug 9J1

L2-3UtrechtJul 17FRI

L1-3NEC NijmegenJul 14FRI

W1-0Mito HollyhockJun 6J1

W1-0Mito HollyhockMay 30J1

Squad & Injuries

Shimizu S-Pulse

33 available

Attackers5

Midfielders14

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

V-Varen Nagasaki

34 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

No

Shimizu S-Pulse or V-Varen Nagasaki

Under 2.5

No

Shimizu S-Pulse

Result0 of 0 landed

Goals0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Shimizu S-Pulse

V-Varen Nagasaki

Squad & Injuries

Shimizu S-Pulse

V-Varen Nagasaki