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Predictions graded

Avispa Fukuoka0Yokohama1

HT 0–1Wed 7 Oct 2026, 09:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 00:00 · Europe/Bucharest

A J1 side in poor form, Avispa Fukuoka, travels to the home ground of in-form J2 promotion chasers Yokohama FC for a one-off cup tie with a last-16 place at stake.

Yokohama FC's home record and Avispa's recent run point to the hosts, though the division gap and Avispa's edge in past meetings are the risk. Four prices look worthwhile: Yokohama FC at 3.5, draw or Yokohama FC at 1.67, over 2.5 goals at 2.3 and both teams to score at 2.0.

Context

This is a one-off knockout staged at Nippatsu Mitsuzawa, so J2 promotion-chasers Yokohama FC get their own ground and crowd while the J1 side travels to Kanto. The prize is a berth in the Round of 16, which gives an otherwise midweek fixture unusual weight for both clubs. The limitation: the venue is confirmed, but no pitch concerns have been reported, so conditions beyond matchday logistics are not a factor here.
- The JFA Emperor's Cup account (4 October) listed Avispa Fukuoka v Yokohama FC on 7 October at 18:30 at Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium.
- Both clubs' official accounts promoted the tie at Mitsuzawa, Yokohama FC's home stadium, and competition-week previews framed the winner as claiming a place in the best 16.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Tsukahara, in charge of a side fighting near the foot of J1, has gone public with a total-effort message as a crowded October starts with this knockout tie. That matters here because it signals the cup is being treated as a match to win rather than a chance to rest senior players, which shapes how strong Avispa's XI is likely to be at Mitsuzawa. The counterpoint is that the quote covers the whole month and does not name this fixture, so it evidences intent rather than a confirmed full-strength selection.
- Nishispo's Avispa Fukuoka beat reporter reported on 3 October that manager Shinya Tsukahara stressed a total-effort approach, saying his side must win by whatever means ahead of a testing October.
- A 6 October competition preview described Avispa as 18th in J1 and struggling, and noted they advanced from the second round on penalties.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Sudo's own account of cup week - an off day after the long trip to Hachinohe, then a deliberately heavy session - shows Yokohama FC prioritising freshness while still building towards a result. He paired that with a promise to pick players who front a win-first attitude, which points to a purposeful rather than throwaway XI. The limitation: he framed this as squad-wide belief rather than naming individuals, so it evidences intent, not a settled line-up.
- Yokohama FC's official pre-match interview (6 October) has manager Daisuke Sudo describing a rest day after returning from Hachinohe and a deliberately heavy session on the eve of the tie.
- Sudo said he trusts players with limited minutes to step in, will choose a line-up that fronts a win-first attitude, and argued a midweek cup result shapes the team's league momentum.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Yokohama FC's week runs from a J2 away trip to Vanraure Hachinohe on 4 October to this tie on 7 October and a home league match against Oita on 10 October, and their manager has already spoken about managing that load. For this fixture it raises the prospect of changes from the league XI and makes individual freshness more relevant than usual. The limitation: Avispa's own October load is not clear from the available reporting, so the comparison is not fully symmetric.
- Local outlet Hamarepo (4 October) noted Yokohama FC were away at Vanraure Hachinohe in J2 and that their next Mitsuzawa fixtures were the 7 October cup tie and a 10 October league game against Oita.
- Yokohama FC manager Daisuke Sudo described managing fatigue across consecutive matches and travel, including an off day after returning from Hachinohe.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.50
The read
Yokohama FC have won most of their matches and are unbeaten at their own ground, while Avispa have lost five of their last six and needed penalties to get through the previous round.
- Yokohama FC: 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 14 competitive matches, 2.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game.
- At home in the window they are 6 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 2.71 and conceding 1.0 per game.
- The tie is played at Nippatsu Mitsuzawa, Yokohama FC's own ground, despite Avispa being listed first.
- Avispa Fukuoka: 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses in their last seven and 3 wins in 13 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYokohamaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Half-time scores sit level in the large majority of matches at this stage of a cup tie, and Avispa's first halves have been quiet.
- Avispa's last six first halves: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-1.
- Avispa first-half goals for and against combine to 1.23 per game.
- Yokohama FC first-half goals for and against combine to 1.43 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Yokohama FC have the stronger late scoring record and Avispa have not taken a second half in their last six matches.
- Yokohama FC second halves at home: 1.57 scored and 0.71 conceded per game.
- Avispa did not win a second half in their last six, losing four and drawing two.
- Avispa second halves: 0.62 scored and 0.77 conceded per game over 13 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostYokohamaEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Yokohama FC have won most of their matches and are unbeaten at their own ground, while Avispa have lost five of their last six and needed penalties to get through the previous round. A single cup tie between a struggling J1 side and a strong J2 home team often stays close and low-scoring into the final stages.
- Yokohama FC: 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 14 competitive matches, 2.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game.
- At home in the window they are 6 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 2.71 and conceding 1.0 per game.
- Avispa have drawn 2 of 13 competitive matches; Yokohama FC 2 of 14.
- A one-off tie level after 90 minutes goes to extra time and penalties, which can keep the closing stages cagey.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or YokohamaEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Yokohama FC have started strongly and led at the break in four of their last six, while Avispa rarely lead at half-time. Half-time scores sit level in the large majority of matches at this stage of a cup tie, and Avispa's first halves have been quiet.
- Yokohama FC first halves: 1.07 scored and 0.36 conceded per game over 14 matches.
- They led at half-time in four of their last six matches.
- Avispa's last six first halves: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-1.
- Avispa first-half goals for and against combine to 1.23 per game.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or YokohamaEstimated chance82%

Goals4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Yokohama FC score heavily at home and Avispa have conceded two or more in four of their last six, so three goals or more is the slightly favoured side of the line.
- Yokohama FC average 2.14 scored and 1.21 conceded per game over 14 matches; 3.71 goals per game in their home fixtures.
- Avispa's last six matches produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83.
- Avispa kept one clean sheet in 13 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Avispa score in most matches and Yokohama FC rarely shut opponents out at home, so both teams finding the net is the more likely outcome.
- Yokohama FC scored in 12 of 14 matches and conceded in 11 of 14.
- Avispa scored in 8 of 13 but kept only one clean sheet.
- Both teams scored in six of Yokohama FC's seven home matches.
- Avispa found the net in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Avispa have been held to one goal or none in most recent matches and face a home side that concedes sparingly.
- Avispa average 1.15 goals per game and scored in 8 of 13 matches.
- Their last two matches ended 0-1 and 0-1.
- Yokohama FC have conceded only 1.0 goal per home game in the window.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAvispa Fukuoka under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yokohama FC have reached two goals in four of their last six matches and Avispa concede in nearly every game.
- Yokohama FC average 2.14 goals per game and 2.71 in home matches.
- Their last six totals were 2, 2, 3, 2, 0 and 5 goals.
- Avispa conceded in 12 of 13 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostYokohama over 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The evidence points strongly to Yokohama FC scoring at least once at their own ground.
- Avispa have kept one clean sheet in 13 competitive matches.
- Yokohama FC have scored in 86% of their matches in the window.
- Avispa conceded in 12 of 13 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonYokohama to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yokohama FC rarely keep their own ground scoreless, so Avispa are more likely than not to find a goal.
- Yokohama FC conceded in 11 of 14 matches and in six of seven at home.
- Avispa scored in 8 of 13 matches.
- Yokohama FC kept only one clean sheet in seven home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAvispa Fukuoka to scoreEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A combination of a Yokohama FC win and a clean sheet is unlikely given how often they concede at home.
- Yokohama FC kept only one clean sheet in seven home matches.
- Avispa scored in 8 of 13 competitive matches.
- Yokohama FC conceded in 11 of 14 matches overall.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Yokohama FC have scored before half-time in five of their last six, making a goalless opening period the less likely outcome.
- Yokohama FC scored in the first half in five of their last six matches.
- Yokohama FC first halves average 1.43 goals in total (1.07 for, 0.36 against).
- Avispa first halves average 1.23 goals in total (0.54 for, 0.69 against).
- Avispa's last six first halves produced goals in three of six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Avispa's low first-half scoring rate makes two first-half goals from opposite sides unlikely.
- Avispa scored in the first half in only two of their last six matches.
- Yokohama FC conceded a first-half goal in two of their last six.
- Avispa's first halves combined to 1.23 goals and Yokohama FC's to 1.43.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W1-0Avispa FukuokavYokohama FCOct 4, 2025J1

L1-0Yokohama FCvAvispa FukuokaMay 10, 2025J1

W2-0Avispa FukuokavYokohama FCAug 12, 2023J1

D1-1Yokohama FCvAvispa FukuokaApr 1, 2023J1

D1-1Avispa FukuokavYokohama FCNov 7, 2021J1

Avispa Fukuoka: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Avispa Fukuoka

L0-1Sanfrecce HiroshimaSep 19J1

L0-1Shimizu S-pulseSep 12J1

D1-1Mito HollyhockSep 5J1

L2-3UrawaSep 2J1

L1-2Kyoto SangaAug 29J1

L2-3KashimaAug 22J1

W3-0Cerezo OsakaAug 15J1

L0-1Vissel KobeAug 8J1

W3-2OsakaJul 19FRI

L1-2KitakyushuJul 11FRI

W2-1JEF United ChibaJun 6J1

D2-2JEF United ChibaMay 30J1

L0-1Vissel KobeMay 23J1

L0-2Fagiano OkayamaApr 25J1

W2-1Gamba OsakaApr 22J1

Yokohama

W2-0Vanraure HachinoheOct 4J2

W2-1FC GifuSep 29J-L

D3-3Kataller ToyamaSep 26J2

W2-1ImabariSep 19J2

L0-2IwakiSep 12J2

W5-0Albirex NiigataSep 6J2

W3-2FC RyukyuSep 2J-L

D2-2Sagan TosuAug 29J2

W3-1Criacao ShinjukuAug 26EMP

L0-2Montedio YamagataAug 22J2

W3-1Jubilo IwataAug 16J2

W1-0Tegevajaro MiyazakiAug 8J2

W3-2KitakyushuJul 18FRI

W2-1Renofa YamaguchiJun 6J2/

W2-1Omiya ArdijaMay 30J2/

Squad & Injuries

Avispa Fukuoka

35 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Yokohama

33 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yokohama

Draw or Yokohama

Over 2.5

Yes

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Avispa Fukuoka

Yokohama

Squad & Injuries

Avispa Fukuoka

Yokohama