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Predictions graded

Spalding United4Bury Town0

HT 3–0Tue 6 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 14–13On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 00:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Spalding United host the replay after a 1-1 draw at Bury Town, with Alvechurch awaiting the winners.

The higher-division side at home look the likelier winners, but Bury's 2.25 goals per away game and six wins in eight on the road keep the tie open. Four prices give something back: no goals in the first half at 3.2, both teams not to score at 1.91, Bury Town to win or draw at 2.05 and the draw at 4.0. Spalding at 1.7 does not.

Context

Monday's draw already fixed the reward for this replay: the winners host Alvechurch on 17 October, and Alvechurch arrive off a 2-1 third qualifying round win at Cambridge City. Both clubs therefore go into a single midweek knockout game knowing exactly what a win buys, which frames selection and how far either side pushes late in a one-off tie. The prize is context for approach rather than evidence of superiority, and the 1-1 draw at Ram Meadow three days earlier showed how small the margin played out.
- Bury Town and Spalding United drew 1-1 at Ram Meadow on 3 October in the FA Cup third qualifying round, forcing a replay at Spalding on Tuesday 6 October.
- The fourth qualifying round draw on 5 October paired the winners of Bury Town/Spalding United at home with Alvechurch.
- Alvechurch reached the fourth qualifying round by winning 2-1 away at Cambridge City.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 00:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Bury Town compete a division below Spalding United, whose level is confirmed by league coverage calling them a National League North side, yet they took the Tulips to a replay with a 1-1 draw at Ram Meadow. That frames the replay as a lower-division side with nothing to lose against a higher-division one that has already been made to work for the tie. Division gaps are a rough guide rather than a guarantee, and the first meeting showed the two teams were close over 90 minutes.
- Bury Town's own build-up described Spalding United as 'higher-league' opposition in the FA Cup third qualifying round.
- League coverage reported that Bury Town held National League North side Spalding United to a draw and a replay.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 00:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Sembie-Ferris scored Spalding's equaliser at Ram Meadow, cancelling out Jamie McGrath's early strike just before half-time, and the club billed him as in-form. He was also in the starting XI for that game, so he is a likely figure again in the replay three days later. His impact rests on one goal in a tight, low-margin tie, which is thin evidence for expecting a repeat.
- Spalding United's Dion Sembie-Ferris cancelled out Jamie McGrath's early Bury Town goal on the stroke of half-time to force Tuesday's replay.
- Spalding United named Sembie-Ferris in their starting XI at Ram Meadow on 3 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 00:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Spalding United's own build-up for the tie said the Tulips are looking to reach the FA Cup proper rounds for the first time since 1964. The fourth qualifying round is the last step before the first round proper, so this replay keeps a decades-old target within reach. The milestone is motivation and colour rather than a playing condition, and it does not by itself point to how Tuesday's game will be decided.
- Spalding United's build-up said the club are looking to qualify for the FA Cup proper rounds for the first time since 1964.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 00:44 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Spalding's strong home defence and higher-league status give them the clearer path to win the replay.
- Spalding are 5-1-1 at home this season, conceding 0.43 goals per game.
- Bury Town have lost two of eight away matches but average 2.25 goals scored on the road.
- Spalding won both previous meetings with Bury before October's 1-1 draw.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSpalding UnitedEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A level half-time is the most likely outcome given Spalding's cautious home starts and the need to stay in the tie.
- Spalding's home first-half matches average 0.86 total goals.
- Bury have scored in the first half in several away games, but also conceded.
- The first match had a 1-1 half-time score.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Spalding's strong second-half home record and Bury's away second-half concessions point to a home win after the break.
- Spalding average 0.86 second-half goals at home, conceding 0.14.
- Bury concede 0.875 second-half goals away.
- Spalding scored twice after half-time against Hanley and three at Spennymoor.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSpalding UnitedEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spalding's strong home defence and higher-league status give them the clearer path to win the replay. With a place in the next round at stake, the replay could stay level given Bury's ability to score and Spalding's solid home defence.
- Spalding are 5-1-1 at home this season, conceding 0.43 goals per game.
- Bury Town have lost two of eight away matches but average 2.25 goals scored on the road.
- The first tie finished 1-1 at Bury Town on 3 October.
- Spalding's home record includes one draw from seven; Bury's away record has no draws from eight.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSpalding United or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A level half-time is the most likely outcome given Spalding's cautious home starts and the need to stay in the tie. Bury's strong first-half away scoring gives them the best chance to lead at the break.
- Spalding's home first-half matches average 0.86 total goals.
- Bury have scored in the first half in several away games, but also conceded.
- Bury average 1.5 first-half goals away.
- Spalding concede 0.29 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Bury TownEstimated chance75%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Spalding's home defence and the cautious nature of a cup replay make under 2.5 the slightly more likely total.
- Spalding concede only 0.43 goals per home match.
- Their home games average 1.86 total goals.
- Bury scored once in the first meeting at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Spalding's home defensive record suggests they can prevent Bury from scoring, making a one-sided clean sheet plausible.
- Spalding have kept four clean sheets in seven home matches.
- Bury were kept out by Bromsgrove in one of their last six away games.
- Spalding conceded only 0.43 goals per home game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Spalding's home average is below the 1.5 line, so holding them to one goal or none is the more likely outcome.
- Spalding average 1.43 goals per home match.
- They failed to score in two of seven home matches.
- Bury kept one clean sheet in eight away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSpalding United under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bury's away scoring average points to them scoring at least twice, even against a strong home defence.
- Bury average 2.25 goals per away match.
- They scored two or more in several away games, including 4 at Gorleston.
- Spalding concede only 0.43 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBury Town over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bury's away scoring record suggests they are likely to score at Spalding, preventing a home clean sheet.
- Bury scored in seven of eight away matches.
- Spalding conceded in three of seven home matches.
- The first meeting saw Bury score.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBury Town to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spalding's home scoring and Bury's away concession record point to the away side conceding.
- Spalding scored in five of seven home matches.
- Bury conceded in seven of eight away matches.
- Spalding average 1.43 goals per home game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSpalding United to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bury's early scoring and the first match's quick start make at least one first-half goal likely.
- Bury's away first halves average 2.375 total goals.
- Spalding's home first halves average 0.86 total goals.
- The first meeting produced two first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spalding's tight home first-half defence makes both teams scoring before the break unlikely.
- Spalding concede only 0.29 first-half goals at home.
- Spalding kept first-half clean sheets in several home matches.
- Bury's away first halves see goals but not always at both ends.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Spalding's control after half-time and the cautious replay make under 1.5 second-half goals the more likely outcome.
- Spalding's home second halves average 1.0 total goals.
- Spalding have conceded only 0.14 second-half goals per home game.
- The first match ended 0-0 in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 0W

D1-1Bury TownvSpalding UnitedOct 3, 2026FAC

W2-1Spalding UnitedvBury TownNov 25, 2025NON

W1-2Bury TownvSpalding UnitedSep 23, 2025NON

Spalding United unbeaten in 3 meetings2.7 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Spalding United

D1-1Bury TownOct 3FAC

L1-2ChorleySep 26NAT

W2-0Hanley TownSep 19FAC

W2-1Bedford TownSep 12NAT

W3-1Spennymoor TownSep 8NAT

W2-0SouthportSep 5NAT

D1-1South ShieldsAug 31NAT

W3-1Worksop TownAug 29NAT

L0-1ChesterAug 22NAT

D0-0MacclesfieldAug 18NAT

L0-1Oxford CityAug 15NAT

W2-0RadcliffeAug 8NAT

D2-2ScunthorpeJul 18FRI

W1-0Halesowen TownApr 29NON

D4-4Worcester CityApr 25NON

Bury Town

D1-1Spalding UnitedOct 3FAC

W2-1Bishop's StortfordSep 29NON

L1-4St Albans CitySep 26FA

W1-0Hitchin TownSep 22NON

W4-3GorlestonSep 19FAC

L0-1Bromsgrove SportingSep 12NON

W4-2London LionsSep 5FAC

W4-3LeistonAug 31NON

W3-2Leighton TownAug 29NON

W3-0LeamingtonAug 22NON

W3-1Stratford TownAug 15NON

W1-0StamfordAug 11NON

W1-0Halesowen TownAug 8NON

D3-3AFC SudburyAug 1FRI

W4-1Mildenhall TownJul 10FRI

Squad & Injuries

Spalding United

7 available

Attackers1

Midfielders3

Defenders2

Goalkeeper1

Bury Town

15 available

Attackers3

Midfielders7

Defenders4

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Draw or Bury Town

Draw

Under 2.5

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Spalding United

Bury Town

Squad & Injuries

Spalding United

Bury Town