CONCACAF Nations LeagueFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Honduras1Jamaica1

HT 0–1Tue 6 Oct 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 73%–27%ShotsShots 16–6On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 18:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Five days after Honduras won 1-0 in Kingston, the sides meet again to close the League A group phase.

A tight, low-scoring game looks likeliest, with Honduras marginal favourites at home and Jamaica's away form the counterweight. Four reviewed prices hold up: Jamaica to draw or win at 1.80, at least one side kept off the scoresheet at 1.75, Jamaica to win at 3.60 and the first half to end level at 2.05.

Context

Honduras won the first meeting 1-0 at Sabina Park on 29 September, and the return lands on the closing day of the League A group phase. Barely a week separates the two games, so both squads carry specific knowledge of the other's shape instead of scouting from older fixtures. Honduras also finished the first match with ten men after a late sending-off, which suggests the sides are closer than a single scoreline implies. Any movement in the group picture is therefore more likely to hinge on what each team changes for the rematch than on longer-established form.
- Honduras won 1-0 away to Jamaica in the 29 September CONCACAF Nations League League A Group B match.
- That fixture was played at Sabina Park in Jamaica, with Juan Calderón as referee.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:46 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport match reportwww.bbc.com · 29 Sep 2026ESPN match reportwww.espn.com · 29 Sep 2026
Figueroa found the net in the 14th minute at Sabina Park, the only goal in Honduras' 1-0 away win. That finish is the most recent direct example of how Honduras can open up this opponent, so his involvement is the central attacking question for the rematch. The read is anchored in a single prior meeting rather than a settled pattern, so his exact role on 6 October is not secure. Jamaica have had five days since that goal to prepare for the same threat.
- Scored in the 14th minute of the 29 September CONCACAF Nations League match between Honduras and Jamaica.
- The goal was the only one of the game, giving Honduras a 1-0 away win.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:46 · Europe/BucharestESPN match reportwww.espn.com · 29 Sep 2026BBC Sport match reportwww.bbc.com · 29 Sep 2026
The group phase finishes on 6 October, making this the last fixture either side can influence before the League A quarter-finals in November. Those knockout ties, and the Finals in March 2027, are the competition's own stakes and apply equally to both teams here. The entire group window runs only from 23 September to 6 October, so the squads arrive on a similarly compressed schedule rather than one side holding a rest advantage. That limits any preparation edge and leaves the final round to be settled on selection and game management.
- The 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League group stage for Leagues A and C runs from 23 September to 6 October 2026.
- League A quarter-finals are scheduled for 9-17 November 2026.
- The Finals are scheduled for 22-30 March 2027.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:46 · Europe/Bucharest2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League season pageen.wikipedia.org · 4 Oct 2026
Jamaica arrive off a clean-sheet away win, having lost at home to the same opponent five days earlier.
That 3 October win is the freshest evidence of how Jamaica travel, and it came four days before this fixture. They out-shot El Salvador 13-4 and put four efforts on target to the hosts' one, so the clean sheet was earned rather than fortunate. The test is different here: Honduras have conceded 0.67 goals per home match across six home games in this window and won the first meeting between the sides 1-0 on 29 September.
- Jamaica won 2-0 away to El Salvador on 3 October 2026 in the CONCACAF Nations League.
- Jamaica recorded 13 shots to El Salvador's 4, with 4 shots on target to 1.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Honduras have been solid at home and just beat Jamaica away from home without conceding, so they start as the slight favourite.
- Honduras at home: 4W-1D-1L in 6, conceding 0.67 goals per home match
- Jamaica away: 3W-1D-1L in 5, conceding 0.6 per away match
- Honduras won the 29 September meeting 1-0 in Kingston; Keyrol Figueroa scored on 14 minutes
- Honduras overall 5W-3D-5L in 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHondurasEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
First halves in both teams' matches are usually tight and produce at most a single goal.
- Both teams' competitive matches average roughly 1.2 first-half goals in total
- Jamaica average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.3 against per competitive match
- Honduras average 0.69 first-half goals for and 0.54 against per competitive match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Honduras have started well at home, though Jamaica rarely concede before the break. First halves in both teams' matches are usually tight and produce at most a single goal.
- Honduras average 1.17 first-half goals and 0.5 first-half goals against per home match
- Jamaica concede 0.2 first-half goals per away match
- Both teams' competitive matches average roughly 1.2 first-half goals in total
- Jamaica average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.3 against per competitive match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHonduras or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Two low-scoring, defensively solid teams, with the last two meetings producing one goal in total.
- Honduras have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 competitive matches
- Jamaica have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches
- Last meeting: Honduras 1-0 Jamaica; the previous meeting was 0-0
- Honduras scored 7 goals in 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
One-sided scorelines have been the norm for both teams in competitive games.
- Only 3 of Honduras' 13 competitive matches had both teams scoring
- Only 1 of Jamaica's last 6 matches had both teams scoring
- Honduras 7 clean sheets in 13; Jamaica 6 in 10
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Honduras have little scoring output and Jamaica's away defence has been tight.
- Honduras average 1.0 goals per competitive match
- Honduras scored 0 or 1 in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Jamaica kept 3 clean sheets in 5 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHonduras under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jamaica have scored more than once in only a minority of recent games and meet a well-organised home defence.
- Jamaica scored 0 or 1 in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Jamaica have scored 7 goals in 10 competitive matches
- Honduras kept 7 clean sheets in 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonJamaica under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Honduras' clean sheets have come in spells, and Jamaica carry enough of a threat to score once.
- Jamaica scored 7 goals in 10 competitive matches
- Honduras conceded 1.15 goals per competitive match
- Honduras kept 7 clean sheets in 13, meaning they conceded in 6
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonJamaica to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Honduras usually find at least one goal and scored in this fixture five days ago.
- Honduras average 1.0 goals per competitive match and 1.83 at home
- Honduras scored in the last meeting and in 3 of their last 4 matches
- Jamaica conceded in 4 of their last 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHonduras to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
A single first-half goal is the common outcome in both teams' recent matches.
- 9 of the last 12 matches involving these teams had at least one first-half goal
- Honduras average 1.17 first-half goals at home; Jamaica average 0.8 away
- Combined first-half concession averages are 0.5 (Honduras home) and 0.2 (Jamaica away)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
At least one side usually reaches half-time without scoring in these teams' matches.
- Both teams scored in the first half in around a quarter of the recent matches reviewed
- Honduras average 0.69 first-half goals for; Jamaica 0.9
- Half-time scorelines involving these teams are usually 0-0 or 1-0
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance83%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home and away splits for both teams point to fewer than ten corners in this match.
- Jamaica away matches average 6.0 corners in total across 4 tracked games
- Honduras home matches average 6.2 corners in total across 6 games
- Last meeting finished with 8 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Venue-split shot totals for both sides sit below the line.
- Honduras home matches average 18.5 total shots
- Jamaica away matches average 23 total shots
- Jamaica's 2-0 win at El Salvador produced only 17 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 26.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Honduras put few shots on target at home and that limits the combined total.
- Honduras home matches: 5.3 combined shots on target per game
- Jamaica away matches: 8.25 combined shots on target per game
- Honduras' 1-0 win at Jamaica produced 10 combined shots on target but only 3 for Jamaica
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
This is a decisive group game between two teams who were heavily carded in the same fixture last week.
- Last meeting: 6 yellow cards plus a red for Honduras' Dereck Moncada
- Honduras' competitive matches average 4.37 yellows combined per game
- Jamaica's away matches average 2.0 yellow cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

W0-1JamaicavHondurasSep 29, 2026CON

D0-0JamaicavHondurasOct 15, 2024CON

L1-2HondurasvJamaicaSep 11, 2024CON

L1-0JamaicavHondurasSep 9, 2023CON

L2-1JamaicavHondurasMar 31, 2022WOR

Honduras: 2 clean sheetsJamaica: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Honduras

L1-2MartiniqueOct 3CON

W1-0JamaicaSep 29CON

L2-3SurinameSep 26CON

L0-2ArgentinaJun 7FRI

D2-2PeruMar 31FRI

D0-0Costa RicaNov 19WOR

L0-2NicaraguaNov 14WOR

W3-0HaitiOct 14WOR

D0-0Costa RicaOct 10WOR

W2-0NicaraguaSep 10WOR

D0-0HaitiSep 6WOR

L0-1MexicoJul 3CON

W2-1CuraçaoJun 25CON

W2-0El SalvadorJun 22CON

L0-6CanadaJun 18CON

Jamaica

W2-0El SalvadorOct 3CON

L0-1HondurasSep 29CON

W3-2GuatemalaSep 26CON

D1-1South AfricaJun 6FRI

L0-3NigeriaMay 30FRI

W2-0IndiaMay 27FRI

W1-0New CaledoniaMar 27WOR

W2-0MartiniqueFeb 21FRI

W1-0GrenadaJan 18FRI

D0-0CuraçaoNov 19WOR

D1-1Trinidad and TobagoNov 14WOR

W4-0BermudaOct 15WOR

L0-2CuraçaoOct 10WOR

W2-0Trinidad and TobagoSep 10WOR

W4-0BermudaSep 5WOR

Squad & Injuries

Honduras

36 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders13

Goalkeeper3

Jamaica

49 available

Attackers15

Midfielders13

Defenders14

Goalkeeper7

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Jamaica

No

Jamaica

Draw

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 2.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals7 of 8 landed

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Honduras

Jamaica

Squad & Injuries

Honduras

Jamaica