France4Belgium1

HT 0–1Mon 5 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges0–70%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 23–5On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 9–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 06:11 · Europe/Bucharest

France have won the last six meetings, including 1-0 in Brussels eight days ago, but Kylian Mbappé is out and France have not scored a first-half goal in six matches.

France remain the likeliest winner, though 1.5 does not justify it. The quotes that offer something: Belgium level or ahead at half-time at 1.75, the draw at 4.5, under 2.5 goals at 2.6, and both teams not to score at 2.3.

Context

Mbappé pulled up with a left-knee problem moments after scoring the only goal in Türkiye on 25 September and left the France camp, so the Stade de France return is being planned without him. Zidane responded in Brussels by changing nine starting places and sending out Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué across the front, with the winning goal arriving from the bench. France still won both September fixtures 1-0 without conceding, so the visible cost has been fluency rather than points. That the squad has already coped twice without him is the main reason this reads as a reshuffle rather than a collapse.
- Mbappé scored in the 1-0 win over Türkiye on 25 September and came off with a left-knee problem.
- He was not in the France squad that beat Belgium 1-0 in Brussels on 28 September.
- France won both September fixtures 1-0 without conceding a goal.
- Kylian Mbappé started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 06:09 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport live report, Belgium 0-1 Francewww.bbc.com · 28 Sep 2026
The five meetings before Brussels included a 2018 World Cup semi-final, a 2021 Nations League semi-final and a Euro 2024 round-of-16 tie, and France won all of them. Belgium had been unbeaten at home since Italy won in Brussels in November 2024, so the latest result broke a genuine home record rather than a soft one. The counterweight is the margin: the decisive goal came in the 88th minute from a substitute, and Belgium had created openings before it. France's run is about results in this fixture rather than comfortable control of it.
- France won 1-0 at the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels on 28 September, in front of 40,857 spectators.
- That result extended France's winning sequence in the fixture to six matches and ended Belgium's six-match unbeaten home run.
- Belgium's last victory over France was a 4-3 friendly in June 2015 at the Stade de France.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 06:09 · Europe/BucharestMatch report, Belgium 0-1 Francewww.flashscore.com · 28 Sep 2026Match details for Belgium 0-1 Francewww.espn.com · 28 Sep 2026
Zidane replaced Didier Deschamps and used the opening window to widen the squad, handing first caps to Jérémy Jacquet, Lucas Da Cunha and Andy Diouf and starting Estéban Lepaul in Brussels. The rotation delivered two 1-0 wins and top spot in Group A1, which leaves him a settled core plus real competition for places before the return. The limitation is that both wins were single-goal affairs, one settled in the 88th minute, so the new hierarchy is still being tested rather than confirmed.
- Zidane took over the France team from Didier Deschamps, whose tenure ran for 14 years.
- France beat Türkiye and Belgium 1-0 and lead Group A1 on six points without conceding.
- Zidane made nine changes to the starting XI in Brussels, where Estéban Lepaul started and Jérémy Jacquet, Lucas Da Cunha and Andy Diouf won their first caps.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 06:09 · Europe/Bucharest
France created little until the change, with Désiré Doué hitting the bar and Lucas Da Cunha striking a post before Olise ran from inside his own half to beat Senne Lammens. With Mbappé out of the squad, that late intervention is the clearest evidence France can decide a tight game from the bench in this window. It also leaves a selection question for Paris: Olise's influence in Brussels came after his introduction on 77 minutes, so his effect may again depend on when Zidane turns to him.
- Olise replaced Bradley Barcola in the 77th minute and scored in the 88th after a run from inside his own half.
- It was his eighth goal in 27 appearances for France.
- France had gone close earlier through Désiré Doué, who hit the bar, and Lucas Da Cunha, who struck a post.
- M. Olise started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 343 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 06:09 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport live report, Belgium 0-1 Francewww.bbc.com · 28 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
France's strong recent record in this fixture and home advantage make them favourites, though Mbappé's absence narrows the gap.
- France have won the last six meetings, including 1-0 in Brussels on 28 September.
- France are top of Group A1 with six points from two matches, both 1-0 wins.
- Belgium won 2-0 in Italy but lost 1-0 at home to France.
- France are without Kylian Mbappé, who left the squad with a left-knee problem.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFranceEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.70
The read
France's recent first-half blank and the tight recent meeting point to a level first half.
- France have not scored in the first half of their last six matches.
- Belgium's last match against France was 0-0 at half-time.
- France's home first-half goals-for average is 0.33.
- Belgium away first-half goals-for average is 1.17.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
France's strong second-half scoring and recent record favour them after the break.
- France have won the second half in five of their last six matches.
- France's home second-half goals-for average is 2.17.
- France's overall second-half goals-for average is 1.55.
- Belgium's away second-half goals-against average is 0.50.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFranceEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
France's strong recent record in this fixture and home advantage make them favourites, though Mbappé's absence narrows the gap. Fatigue and a recent tight meeting make a draw plausible.
- France have won the last six meetings, including 1-0 in Brussels on 28 September.
- France are top of Group A1 with six points from two matches, both 1-0 wins.
- France and Belgium meet for the second time in eight days after France's 1-0 win.
- Both teams play a fourth match in eleven days, raising fatigue.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFrance or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
France's slow starts make a first-half lead less likely. France's recent first-half blank and the tight recent meeting point to a level first half.
- France have not scored a first-half goal in their last six matches.
- France's home first-half goals-for average is 0.33.
- France have not scored in the first half of their last six matches.
- Belgium's last match against France was 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFrance or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Recent meetings and fatigue suggest a tight, low-scoring game.
- France's last two competitive matches each had one goal.
- Belgium's last match had one goal.
- Three of the last five head-to-heads stayed under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams played a fourth match in eleven days.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Belgium's away scoring and France's home concessions make both teams scoring likely.
- Belgium have scored in all six away matches in the tracked window.
- France have conceded in three of six home matches.
- Belgium average 2.83 goals away from home.
- France kept a clean sheet in the last meeting.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half averages suggest at least one goal.
- Belgium have scored first-half goals in four of their last six.
- Belgium's away first-half total-goals average is 1.83.
- France's home first-half total-goals average is 1.17.
- The last head-to-head was 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Overall averages point to second-half goals, but recent matches have been tighter.
- France's home second-half total-goals average is 2.83.
- Belgium's away second-half total-goals average is 2.17.
- Only two of France's last six second halves had over 1.5 goals.
- Only two of Belgium's last six second halves had over 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
France's recent scoring without Mbappé has been limited.
- France scored exactly one goal in each of their last two matches.
- France are without Kylian Mbappé.
- Belgium kept a clean sheet in Italy in their opening match.
- France scored one goal in the last head-to-head.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFrance under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
France's recent defensive record and the tight head-to-head could limit Belgium.
- Belgium scored one goal in their last match against France.
- France kept a clean sheet in each of their last two matches.
- Belgium scored two goals in their only other Nations League away match.
- France's home goals-against average is 1.5.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBelgium under 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Corner counts in recent matches are well below 13.5.
- France's total corners average 9.0; Belgium's 10.9.
- The last head-to-head had 8 corners.
- France have exceeded 13.5 corners once in their last six.
- Belgium have not exceeded 13.5 corners in their last six.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 13.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent shot counts are mostly below the line.
- France's total shots average 25.4; Belgium's 29.2.
- The last head-to-head had 30 shots.
- France have exceeded 35.5 shots once in their last six.
- Belgium have exceeded 35.5 shots twice in their last six.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 35.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent shots-on-target counts are below the line.
- France's total shots on target average 9.5; Belgium's 9.9.
- The last head-to-head had 9 shots on target.
- France have exceeded 13.5 shots on target once in their last six.
- Belgium have exceeded 13.5 shots on target once in their last six.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 13.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches and Belgium's card average point to over 2.5.
- Belgium average 1.55 yellow cards and 0.25 red cards per match.
- France's opponents average 1.38 yellow cards and 0.5 red cards in tracked matches.
- The last head-to-head had three cards.
- Four of France's last five matches with card data had over 2.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%