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Predictions graded

Znicz Pruszkow4Stal Stalowa Wola2

HT 3–1Sun 4 Oct 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–469%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 06:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Top against twelfth, with a lopsided away record on one side and narrow home margins on the other: Znicz Pruszków should edge this, but Stal Stalowa Wola have won at Pruszków before.

Two of the reviewed prices offer something — Znicz to win at 1.88 and the first half to end level at 2.40. The goal and both-teams-to-score prices, from 1.22 to 3.50, ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Stal Stalowa Wola's coaching staff was reworked in September 2026, when Stanisław Szpyrka's contract was ended by mutual agreement and the club also lost its sporting director. That makes the trip to Pruszków one of the first league fixtures prepared by the reshaped staff, so the touchline set-up and the selection plan carry more uncertainty than the squad list alone suggests. Whether a permanent successor is already in place is not established by the available evidence, and the change is roughly two and a half weeks old by kick-off, so any immediate disruption may already be partly absorbed.
- Stanisław Szpyrka's contract with Stal Stalowa Wola was ended by mutual agreement on 16 September 2026, leaving the club's coaching staff.
- Stal Stalowa Wola also lost its sporting director in the same mid-September reshuffle.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:29 · Europe/Bucharest
It is the most emphatic result in the series and a reminder of how heavily Stal can be beaten by this opponent, although it came in the previous season's I Liga squads. The last time Stal visited Pruszków, on 2 November 2024, they won 1-0, so the home side have not had everything their own way in this fixture. Both results are historical and cannot settle a round 10 league game between teams now separated by ten points.
- 9 May 2025 (I Liga): Stal Stalowa Wola 0-5 Znicz Pruszków, an away win in the most recent meeting between the clubs.
The shootout hinged on 17-year-old goalkeeper Norbert Gzowski, who saved three Cracovia penalties, and it stands as the club's best result of the season. It matters here as orientation for the side Stal Stalowa Wola are visiting: a II-liga team that has already held its nerve against top-flight opposition. The Ruch Chorzów tie is still ahead and cannot change the XI for this league fixture, and the young keeper who decided the shootout has had limited league exposure.
- Znicz Pruszków eliminated Cracovia from the Polish Cup on penalties on 2 September 2026.
- Goalkeeper Norbert Gzowski, 17, saved three penalties in the shootout.
- The round-of-32 draw set up a home tie with Ruch Chorzów.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Gedeon Nongo's Congo U-20 call-up covers 12 to 24 October 2026, so the Pruszków trip is one of the club's last league games before the international window. Stal Stalowa Wola will be without a squad midfielder for the October rounds that follow. His availability for this match is unaffected, but the squad picture changes within days of kick-off.
- Midfielder Gedeon Nongo has been called into Congo's U-20 squad for a camp running from 12 to 24 October 2026.
- The camp opens on 12 October 2026, after Stal Stalowa Wola's fixture at Znicz Pruszków.
- G. Nongo started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:29 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 82%

−6.0ppshort

Recent matches for both teams have almost always produced a goal before half-time.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

−6.5ppshort

Znicz score consistently at home but rarely keep clean sheets, and Stal have found the net in most recent games.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 63.7%

−7.7ppshort

Both teams' home and away splits point to about three goals, and Stal's away games have been high-scoring.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
The league leaders score well at home and Stal have lost four of five away games.
- Znicz Pruszków top II Liga with 20 points from 9 games: 6 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat.
- Home league record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 9 scored and 6 conceded in 6 games.
- Stal Stalowa Wola away league record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 defeats, 4 scored and 12 conceded in 5.
- Znicz home split across 8 tracked matches: 1.88 goals for and 1.13 against per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonZnicz PruszkowEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates are low enough for level openings to be common.
- Znicz first-half home totals average 1.63 goals combined per game.
- Stal trailed at half-time in 3 of their last 6 but were level in the other 3.
- Znicz went in level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Znicz score more after the break at home than they concede, which points to a stronger closing period.
- Znicz second-half home split: 1.00 scored and 0.38 conceded per game in 8 tracked matches.
- Stal second-half away split: 0.63 scored and 0.88 conceded per game.
- Znicz scored 3 second-half goals in their 4-2 win over Hutnik Kraków.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostZnicz PruszkowEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The league leaders score well at home and Stal have lost four of five away games. Znicz's home margins are often narrow and both teams score regularly, which keeps a level result plausible.
- Znicz Pruszków top II Liga with 20 points from 9 games: 6 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat.
- Home league record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 9 scored and 6 conceded in 6 games.
- Znicz drew 2 of their last 6 matches, both 1-1.
- Znicz have kept only 1 clean sheet in 8 tracked home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonZnicz Pruszkow or DrawEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stal concede early on their travels, giving the home side the better first-half chance. Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates are low enough for level openings to be common.
- Znicz first-half home split: 0.88 scored and 0.75 conceded per game in 8 tracked matches.
- Stal first-half away split: 0.5 scored and 1.25 conceded per game in 8 tracked matches.
- Znicz first-half home totals average 1.63 goals combined per game.
- Stal trailed at half-time in 3 of their last 6 but were level in the other 3.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonZnicz Pruszkow or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point to about three goals, and Stal's away games have been high-scoring.
- Znicz home split: 1.88 scored and 1.13 conceded per game in 8 tracked matches.
- Stal away split: 1.13 scored and 2.13 conceded per game in 8 tracked matches.
- Over 2.5 landed in 3 of Znicz's last 6 and 4 of Stal's last 6.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Znicz score consistently at home but rarely keep clean sheets, and Stal have found the net in most recent games.
- Znicz conceded in all of their last 6 matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Znicz's 8 tracked home-split matches.
- Stal scored in 4 of their last 6, including 4 against Avia Świdnik.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Znicz score close to two goals a game at home against an away defence conceding over two.
- Znicz average 1.88 goals per home game in 8 tracked matches and 2.27 overall.
- Znicz scored 2 or more in 3 of their last 6 games.
- Stal concede 2.13 goals per away game across 8 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonZnicz Pruszkow over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Away from home Stal score around one goal a game and rarely reach two.
- Stal scored 0 or 1 in 3 of their last 6 games.
- Stal away split: 1.13 goals per game across 8 tracked matches.
- In 5 away league games Stal have scored 4 goals in total.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostStal Stalowa Wola under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Znicz concede almost every home game and Stal usually find at least one goal.
- Znicz conceded in all of their last 6 matches.
- Znicz conceded in 7 of 8 tracked home matches.
- Stal scored in 6 of their 8 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonStal Stalowa Wola to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Znicz's home wins this season have almost always come with a goal against.
- Znicz have 1 clean sheet in 8 tracked home matches.
- Znicz's last three home league wins all included conceding.
- Stal scored in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Recent matches for both teams have almost always produced a goal before half-time.
- A first-half goal was scored in 5 of Znicz's last 6 games.
- A first-half goal was scored in all 6 of Stal's last 6 games.
- Znicz home first-half totals and Stal away first-half totals both average above 1.6 combined goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half goal totals are modest and Znicz's home defence is tight after the break.
- Znicz's last 6 second halves produced 2 or more goals only once.
- Znicz second-half home split: 1.00 scored and 0.38 conceded per game.
- Stal second-half away split: 0.63 scored and 0.88 conceded per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W0-5Stal Stalowa WolavZnicz PruszkówMay 9, 2025I L

W0-1Znicz PruszkówvStal Stalowa WolaNov 2, 2024I L

L2-0Stal Stalowa WolavZnicz PruszkówSep 27, 2023CUP

L2-1Stal Stalowa WolavZnicz PruszkówNov 23, 2019II

L4-1Znicz PruszkówvStal Stalowa WolaAug 3, 2019II

Znicz Pruszkow: 2 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Znicz Pruszkow	9	6	2	1	19-10	20	WDWWD
12	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	3	1	5	14-17	10	WLDLL

10pt gap between teamsZnicz Pruszkow leads the league

Recent Form

Znicz Pruszkow

W3-1Lechia Zielona GóraSep 19II

D1-1Tychy 71Sep 11II

W4-2Hutnik KrakówSep 6II

W3-2Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 29II

D1-1Świt SkolwinAug 22II

L0-1Olimpia GrudziądzAug 16II

W4-1Chojniczanka ChojniceAug 9II

W3-1ŁKS Łódź IIAug 5CUP

W2-1Legia Warszawa IIJul 31II

W1-0Resovia RzeszówJul 24II

D2-2SwitJul 18FRI

L1-2Chojniczanka ChojniceJul 10FRI

W4-1Mławianka MławaJul 3FRI

W3-2Polonia WarszawaJun 27FRI

W3-2Ruch ChorzówMay 24I L

Stal Stalowa Wola

W2-0Resovia RzeszówSep 20II

L0-5Podhale Nowy TargSep 12II

D3-3Zawisza BydgoszczSep 4II

L1-2Hutnik KrakówAug 29II

L0-2Chojniczanka ChojniceAug 21II

W4-0Avia ŚwidnikAug 16II

L1-3Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 8II

L2-3Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 5CUP

L1-2Tychy 71Jul 31II

W2-0Legia Warszawa IIJul 25II

W2-1Widzew IIJul 18FRI

D2-2Avia ŚwidnikJul 11FRI

W1-0Hutnik KrakówMay 30II

D2-2Resovia RzeszówMay 15II

W3-0Sokół KleczewMay 8II

Squad & Injuries

Znicz Pruszkow

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders17

Defenders2

Goalkeeper3

Stal Stalowa Wola

28 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Znicz Pruszkow

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Over 2.5

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 8 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Znicz Pruszkow

Stal Stalowa Wola

Squad & Injuries

Znicz Pruszkow

Stal Stalowa Wola