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Settling…

Wales0Denmark1

HT 0–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 18:45 Settling…

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 6–13On targetOn target 1–4CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 22:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Denmark beat Wales 2-0 in Copenhagen a week ago, and Wales have no points and no goals from their two Group A4 matches.

Denmark are the likelier winners, though they lost two of five away games in this run and Wales won three of four home competitive matches in 2025. Both teams to score — No — at 2.15 is the one quoted price that offers anything; Denmark at 1.75 and over 2.5 goals at 1.6 ask too much.

Context

Wales must rework an attack that has not scored in Group A4 after David Brooks was ruled out of both Cardiff fixtures, Denmark are reported to have lost Patrick Dorgu from the camp, and both sides come in three days after their previous group match.

Brooks is in Wales' attacking group for this window and is now unavailable for both home matches, so Craig Bellamy has to replace him in a front line that has produced no goals in two Group A4 outings. The timing is awkward because Wales play Norway in Cardiff on 1 October and Denmark three days later, giving little room to absorb another absence. The scale of the impact depends on who comes in, and the withdrawals that thinned the squad before Copenhagen suggest depth is the real pressure point rather than a single position.
- David Brooks will miss Wales' Nations League fixtures against Norway and Denmark through injury.
- D. Brooks started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:44 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the return of a tie settled a week ago in Copenhagen, where a Ben Davies own goal and a Gustav Isaksen finish that survived a video review gave Denmark a 2-0 win. Wales have two defeats and no goals from their opening group games and now play both of their home fixtures in Cardiff only three days apart. The second meeting comes immediately after each side's third group match, so selection and tempo are likely to be shaped by that quick turnaround. Wales' two home games are also their clearest route to points in a group where the bottom place is relegated.
- Denmark beat Wales 2-0 at Parken on 27 September 2026, Ben Davies turning a free-kick into his own net on 53 minutes before Gustav Isaksen scored on 66.
- Gustav Isaksen had a first-half volley ruled out for offside in the build-up; his second-half finish was given after a video review.
- Wales stayed bottom of Group A4 with no points and no goals from their first two matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:44 · Europe/BucharestDenmark 2-0 Wales match reportwww.theguardian.com · 27 Sep 2026Denmark v Wales live textwww.bbc.com · 27 Sep 2026
Dorgu started the first meeting and was withdrawn inside the first half, then left the Denmark squad, so Brian Riemer must find cover for his role when the teams meet again in Cardiff. A starter being unavailable matters more than a fringe withdrawal because it forces a change to a unit that kept Wales out in Copenhagen. The full extent of the injury is still unknown, so any read on how long Denmark are without him would go beyond the evidence.
- Patrick Dorgu was forced off injured in the first half of Denmark's 2-0 win over Wales.
- He left the Denmark camp with a replacement call-up planned, and no timeframe for his return was established.
- P. Dorgu started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Denmark arrive in Cardiff as the more likely winners, but the away sample behind that read is noticeably softer than their overall numbers.
Denmark's 11-match competitive record — six wins, three draws, two defeats, seven clean sheets — is why they are the more likely winners in Cardiff. Their away sample is softer: five games, two defeats, and all seven goals conceded coming in the losses in Norway and Scotland, with three clean sheets either side of them. Wales' three wins from four home competitive matches in 2025 add to the awkwardness of the trip.
- Denmark's away competitive record from 18 November 2024 to 24 September 2026: five matches, two wins, one draw, two defeats, seven goals conceded (1.4 per game) and three clean sheets.
- All seven of those goals came in the two defeats: 3-2 in Norway on 24 September 2026 and 4-2 in Scotland on 18 November 2025.
- Denmark's 11 competitive matches overall in the same window: six wins, three draws, two defeats, seven clean sheets and 0.91 goals conceded per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Denmark

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

Denmark's away scoring has been uneven and Wales struggle to create clear chances, which points to a tight match with a narrow margin. Denmark have the better record at both ends and just beat Wales comfortably, so they are the more likely winners in Cardiff.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

−12.0ppshort

Combined first-half scoring across both sides' matches is high enough that a goal before the break is the likelier outcome.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 62.5%

−8.5ppshort

Recent matches for both sides have carried plenty of goals and Wales' home games have been open.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Denmark

1.75fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 57.1%

−10.1ppshort

Denmark have the better record at both ends and just beat Wales comfortably, so they are the more likely winners in Cardiff.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.75
The read
Denmark have the better record at both ends and just beat Wales comfortably, so they are the more likely winners in Cardiff.
- Denmark: 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 11 competitive matches, with 7 clean sheets
- Denmark score 2.27 and concede 0.91 goals per competitive match
- Denmark have scored at least twice in each of their last six matches
- Denmark beat Wales 2-0 in Copenhagen on 27 September
BetBugs · Match WinnerDenmarkMarket price1.75Estimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Both sides have produced few first-half goals against each other and Denmark's early defending has been tight.
- Wales average 0.8 first-half goals, Denmark 0.91
- Denmark concede 0.27 first-half goals per competitive match
- The Copenhagen meeting was 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.40Estimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Denmark finish matches strongly and did all their scoring after the break in the reverse fixture.
- Denmark average 1.36 second-half goals for and 0.64 against
- Denmark scored both goals after half-time in the 2-0 win over Wales
- Denmark have scored after half-time in 5 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDenmarkEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Denmark's away scoring has been uneven and Wales struggle to create clear chances, which points to a tight match with a narrow margin. Denmark have the better record at both ends and just beat Wales comfortably, so they are the more likely winners in Cardiff.
- Wales drew 1 of 10 competitive matches; Denmark drew 3 of 11
- Both teams concede under 1.4 goals per competitive match
- Denmark: 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 11 competitive matches, with 7 clean sheets
- Denmark score 2.27 and concede 0.91 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or DenmarkMarket price1.25Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have produced few first-half goals against each other and Denmark's early defending has been tight. Denmark create more before the break than Wales do, and Wales have conceded first-half goals at a steady rate.
- Wales average 0.8 first-half goals, Denmark 0.91
- Denmark concede 0.27 first-half goals per competitive match
- Denmark average 1.2 first-half goals in away competitive matches
- Wales concede 0.8 first-half goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or DenmarkEstimated chance81%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Recent matches for both sides have carried plenty of goals and Wales' home games have been open.
- Wales average 2.1 goals for and 1.4 against in competitive matches
- Denmark average 2.27 goals for and 0.91 against
- Denmark's last six matches produced 2, 5, 4, 6, 4 and 4 goals
- Wales' two home matches in this window produced 8 and 6 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.60Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Denmark's clean-sheet record is the strongest defensive number in this match and Wales have yet to score in the group.
- Denmark kept 7 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Wales have not scored in either Nations League match
- Denmark conceded in 2 of their last 3 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price2.15Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wales have been limited to one goal or fewer in five of their last six matches, and Denmark rarely concede more than once.
- Wales scored 0, 0, 7, 1, 2 and 1 goals in their six most recent matches
- Denmark concede 0.91 goals per competitive match
- Denmark kept 7 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalWales under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Denmark have reached two goals in every recent outing and Wales have conceded in seven of ten tracked matches.
- Denmark have scored 2 or more in each of their last six matches
- Denmark average 2.6 goals in five away competitive matches
- Wales concede 1.4 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalDenmark over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Combined first-half scoring across both sides' matches is high enough that a goal before the break is the likelier outcome.
- Wales average 0.8 first-half goals for and against; Denmark 0.91 for and 0.27 against
- Denmark scored in the first half in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Wales' home matches average 1.5 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.25Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these teams have regularly produced two or more goals.
- Wales' matches average 1.9 second-half goals; Denmark's average 2.0
- Wales' home win over FYR Macedonia had 4 second-half goals
- Denmark scored 2 after the break in Copenhagen
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's matches have produced corner counts near this line.
- Wales' competitive matches average 6 corners for and 4.4 against
- Denmark's average 7.45 for and 4.09 against
- Denmark's away matches have produced under 10 total corners on average
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 13.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' away and home shot volumes point to a combined total comfortably under the line.
- Wales average 25.4 combined shots per match; Denmark 28.4
- Denmark's away matches average 26.4 combined shots
- Wales face only 8 shots per home match
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderUnder 32.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team's matches produce enough accurate shots to reach 13 combined.
- Wales average 8.9 combined shots on target per match; Denmark 9.8
- Denmark's away matches average 10.6 combined on target
- Wales' home matches average 10.25 combined on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderUnder 12.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card counts in both teams' matches sit around the three-card mark for a tight group game.
- Wales take 1.5 yellow cards per match; Denmark take 1.27
- Opponents take 1.7 yellows against Wales and 2.55 against Denmark
- Denmark's away matches average 1.8 yellow cards each way
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 4W

L2-0DenmarkvWalesSep 27, 2026UEF

L0-4WalesvDenmarkJun 26, 2021EUR

L1-2WalesvDenmarkNov 16, 2018UEF

L2-0DenmarkvWalesSep 9, 2018UEF

Denmark unbeaten in 4 meetingsDenmark: 3 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Wales Relegation	2	0	0	2	0-3	0	LL
3	Denmark Relegation Playoffs	2	1	0	1	4-3	3	WL

3pt gap between teamsWales in relegation zoneDenmark in relegation zone

Recent Form

Wales

L0-2DenmarkSep 27UEF

L0-1PortugalSep 24UEF

L1-2RomaniaJun 6FRI

D1-1GhanaJun 2FRI

D1-1Northern IrelandMar 31FRI

W7-1FYR MacedoniaNov 18WOR

W1-0LiechtensteinNov 15WOR

L2-4BelgiumOct 13WOR

L0-3EnglandOct 9FRI

L0-1CanadaSep 9FRI

W1-0KazakhstanSep 4WOR

L3-4BelgiumJun 9WOR

W3-0LiechtensteinJun 6WOR

D1-1FYR MacedoniaMar 25WOR

W3-1KazakhstanMar 22WOR

Denmark

W2-0WalesSep 27UEF

L2-3NorwaySep 24UEF

W2-1UkraineJun 7FRI

D0-0Congo DRJun 3FRI

W4-0FYR MacedoniaMar 26WOR

L2-4ScotlandNov 18WOR

D2-2BelarusNov 15WOR

W3-1GreeceOct 12WOR

W6-0BelarusOct 9WOR

W3-0GreeceSep 8WOR

D0-0ScotlandSep 5WOR

W5-0LithuaniaJun 10FRI

W2-1Northern IrelandJun 7FRI

W1-0PortugalMar 20UEF

D0-0SerbiaNov 18UEF

Squad & Injuries

Wales

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Denmark

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders14

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4