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Settling…

Netherlands2Serbia1

HT 1–1Sun 4 Oct 2026, 18:45 Settling…

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 22–14On targetOn target 7–4CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 22:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Seven days after winning 2-1 in Belgrade, the Netherlands host a Serbia side still without a Nations League point.

The Dutch are the likelier winners, but they have drawn three of their six home games and are missing Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey. The 1.2 on a home win asks too much. Of the reviewed prices, Serbia to win or draw at 4.2, the draw at 6.5 and both teams to score at 2 carry the value.

Context

Netherlands are without two forwards, Cody Gakpo (ankle, withdrawn from the rest of the window) and Brian Brobbey (hamstring problem, left camp with the diagnosis unspecified). Serbia arrive on 0 points from two Group A2 games, and both teams played a group fixture on 1 October, giving each a three-day turnaround into Eindhoven.

Gakpo started the reverse fixture in Belgrade and was withdrawn inside the first half with the ankle problem, before the Netherlands had taken the lead. He is out of the rest of this Nations League window, so the Dutch go into the Eindhoven return without a wide forward who began the game they won on 27 September. The evidence establishes the withdrawal and his absence from the remaining fixtures; it does not set the length of the lay-off, so his availability beyond this window stays open.
- Cody Gakpo was substituted in the first half of the Netherlands' 2-1 Nations League win over Serbia on 27 September after an ankle injury.
- Gakpo was forced off inside the opening half-hour, before the Netherlands took the lead through Mexx Meerdink's 30th-minute penalty.
- Gakpo has withdrawn from the Netherlands' remaining Nations League fixtures and returned to Liverpool for assessment.
- C. Gakpo started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 365 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:51 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport live match pagewww.bbc.com · 27 Sep 2026Flashscore match reportwww.flashscore.com · 27 Sep 2026
The reverse fixture in Belgrade finished 2-1 to the Netherlands, with Serbia level early in the second half through Luka Jovic before the visitors scored the 69th-minute winner. It is the two teams' most recent match, so the rematch comes seven days later rather than after a long gap. Both camps therefore prepare from the same game, including Serbia's second-half response and the Dutch reliance on a late goal to win.
- Netherlands won 2-1 away to Serbia in Group A2 on 27 September.
- Luka Jovic equalised for Serbia in the 46th minute before the Netherlands scored the 69th-minute winner.
- The fixture was played at Stadion Rajko Mitic before 15,212 spectators.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:51 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport live match pagewww.bbc.com · 27 Sep 2026Flashscore match reportwww.flashscore.com · 27 Sep 2026ESPN match pagewww.espn.com · 27 Sep 2026
Serbia have lost both group games so far and arrive on 0 points, while the Netherlands have 4 from their opening two matches. That frames the Eindhoven fixture as Serbia's first chance to get off the mark in Group A2 while the Dutch try to stay unbeaten. Greece's 6 points mean the group is being led from outside this fixture, so both teams are also chasing a third party's pace.
- Serbia have lost both of their opening Group A2 matches and sit bottom of the group on 0 points.
- Greece lead Group A2 on 6 points, with the Netherlands on 4 and Germany on 1.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:51 · Europe/BucharestESPN match pagewww.espn.com · 27 Sep 2026
Meerdink was given a first start in Belgrade and scored both Netherlands goals, a penalty and the 69th-minute winner, in the match played seven days before the rematch. He is the player who settled this pairing's most recent meeting, so Serbia's preparation has to account for a forward the Dutch had only just introduced. Whether the same starting role carries into Eindhoven is an open selection question rather than a settled plan.
- Mexx Meerdink scored twice on his first start for the Netherlands in the 2-1 win over Serbia on 27 September.
- Meerdink converted a 30th-minute penalty, won when Aleksa Terzic was penalised for a push on Crysencio Summerville, and added the 69th-minute winner after Luka Jovic had equalised.
- The goals were his first at senior international level, in what was his second cap.
- Mexx Meerdink started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:51 · Europe/BucharestESPN match pagewww.espn.com · 27 Sep 2026Flashscore match reportwww.flashscore.com · 27 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Netherlands have stronger recent results and home form, while Serbia are without a Nations League point.
- Netherlands are unbeaten in 11 competitive matches (7 wins, 4 draws).
- At home they have 3 wins and 3 draws from 6, averaging 2.83 goals for and 0.83 against.
- Serbia have lost both Nations League games and sit on 0 points.
- Netherlands won the reverse fixture 2-1 in Belgrade on 27 September.
BetBugs · Match WinnerNetherlandsEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Netherlands start strongly at home and led at half-time in Belgrade.
- Netherlands home first-half goals for average 1.17, against 0.17.
- Serbia away first-half goals for average 0.5, against 0.5.
- Netherlands led 1-0 at half-time in the reverse fixture.
- Netherlands overall first-half goals for average 1.18.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerNetherlandsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Netherlands are stronger after the break at home and often add goals late.
- Netherlands home second-half goals for average 1.67, against 0.67.
- Serbia away second-half goals for average 0.5, against 0.25.
- Netherlands overall second-half goals for average 1.55.
- The reverse fixture was 1-1 in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerNetherlandsEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Netherlands have stronger recent results and home form, while Serbia are without a Nations League point. Netherlands have drawn half their home matches, and Serbia could frustrate them.
- Netherlands are unbeaten in 11 competitive matches (7 wins, 4 draws).
- At home they have 3 wins and 3 draws from 6, averaging 2.83 goals for and 0.83 against.
- Netherlands drew 3 of 6 home matches in the sample.
- Serbia drew 1 of 4 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChanceNetherlands or DrawEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Netherlands start strongly at home and led at half-time in Belgrade. Netherlands often lead late rather than early, and Serbia can keep the first half level.
- Netherlands home first-half goals for average 1.17, against 0.17.
- Serbia away first-half goals for average 0.5, against 0.5.
- Netherlands home first-half goals against average 0.17.
- Serbia away first-half goals for average 0.5.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfNetherlands or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Netherlands home games have produced enough goals, and the reverse meeting also cleared the line.
- Netherlands home matches average 3.67 total goals.
- Serbia away matches average 1.75 total goals.
- Recent Netherlands matches went over 2.5 in 5 of 6.
- The reverse fixture had 3 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Netherlands often concede at home, and Serbia scored in Belgrade.
- Netherlands home matches saw both teams score in 4 of 6.
- Serbia away matches saw both teams score in 1 of 4.
- Netherlands overall both scored in 8 of 11.
- The reverse fixture saw both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price2.00Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent games usually produce at least one first-half goal.
- Netherlands home first-half total goals average 1.33.
- Serbia away first-half total goals average 1.0.
- Recent Netherlands matches had a first-half goal in 5 of 6.
- Recent Serbia matches had a first-half goal in 6 of 6.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Netherlands have been hard to score against before the break and Serbia rarely score early away.
- Netherlands home first-half clean sheets in 5 of 6 recent matches.
- Serbia away first-half goals for average 0.5.
- Netherlands overall first-half goals against average 0.36.
- Serbia overall first-half goals for average 0.45.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Netherlands home second halves have been high-scoring, and Serbia's recent games also produce late goals.
- Netherlands home second-half total goals average 2.33.
- Serbia away second-half total goals average 0.75.
- Recent Netherlands matches went over 1.5 second-half goals in 5 of 6.
- Recent Serbia matches did so in 4 of 6.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Netherlands score consistently at home and usually reach two goals.
- Netherlands home goals for average 2.83.
- Netherlands scored in all six home matches in the sample.
- Netherlands have scored 2+ in 5 of their last 6 matches overall.
- Serbia away goals against average 0.75.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalNetherlands over 1.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent corner counts for both teams usually stay under 11.5.
- Netherlands home corners total average 10.17.
- Serbia away corners total average 9.75.
- Recent Netherlands matches went over 11.5 in 1 of 6.
- Recent Serbia matches went over 11.5 in 1 of 6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 11.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Team average shot totals are below 29.5, and recent games often stayed under.
- Netherlands home shots total average 25.17.
- Serbia away shots total average 24.25.
- Recent Netherlands matches went over 29.5 in 3 of 6.
- Recent Serbia matches went over 29.5 in 2 of 6.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderUnder 29.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Averages suggest fewer than 12 shots on target.
- Netherlands home shots on target total average 10.17.
- Serbia away shots on target total average 7.0.
- Recent Netherlands matches went over 11.5 in 3 of 6.
- Recent Serbia matches went over 11.5 in 2 of 6.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderUnder 11.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent card totals are around the line, and the match has some edge.
- Netherlands home cards total average 2.8.
- Serbia away cards total average 2.75.
- Recent Netherlands matches went over 2.5 in 3 of 6.
- Recent Serbia matches went over 2.5 in 3 of 6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W1-2SerbiavNetherlandsSep 27, 2026UEF

3 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Netherlands Play Offs: Quarter-finals	2	1	1	0	3-2	4	WD
4	Serbia Relegation	2	0	0	2	2-4	0	LL

4pt gap between teamsSerbia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Netherlands

W2-1UzbekistanJun 8FRI

L0-1AlgeriaJun 3FRI

D1-1EcuadorMar 31FRI

W2-1NorwayMar 27FRI

W4-0LithuaniaNov 17WOR

D1-1PolandNov 14WOR

W4-0FinlandOct 12WOR

W4-0MaltaOct 9WOR

W3-2LithuaniaSep 7WOR

D1-1PolandSep 4WOR

Serbia

L1-2NetherlandsSep 27UEF

L1-2GreeceSep 24UEF

L1-5MexicoJun 5FRI

L0-3Cape Verde IslandsMay 31FRI

W2-1Saudi ArabiaMar 31FRI

L0-3SpainMar 27FRI

W2-1LatviaNov 16WOR

L0-2EnglandNov 13WOR

W3-1AndorraOct 14WOR

L0-1AlbaniaOct 11WOR

L0-5EnglandSep 9WOR

W1-0LatviaSep 6WOR

W3-0AndorraJun 10WOR

D0-0AlbaniaJun 7WOR

W2-0AustriaMar 23UEF

Squad & Injuries

Netherlands

24 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Serbia

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Serbia

Draw

Yes

Result0 of 0 landed

Goals0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Netherlands

Serbia

Squad & Injuries

Netherlands

Serbia