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Settling…

Greece0Germany0

HT 0–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 18:45 Settling…

PossPossession 30%–70%ShotsShots 5–21On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 05:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Seven days after Greece's first win over them, Germany visit Thessaloniki with Greece top of the group on six points to Germany's one.

Germany had 16 shots without scoring in Augsburg, but have not won under Jürgen Klopp and average one goal away. Five quoted prices hold up: Greece to be level or ahead at half-time at 1.48, the first half to finish level at 2.30, over 9.5 corners at 2.05, no first-half goal at 3.20 and both teams not to score at 2.25. Germany at 2.00 does not.

Context

Greece carry a 1-0 win from Augsburg and a six-point-to-one lead in the group into the return at Toumba, while Germany's five away competitive matches in the tracked window read 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses at 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per game.

The squad Germany bring to Thessaloniki was planned separately from the group that faced the Netherlands and Greece earlier in the same window, with Lennart Karl replacing Karim Adeyemi for the final two matches. That matters because who is available on 4 October is partly a scheduling decision made before the Augsburg result, which complicates any read of rotation, fatigue or reaction in the line-up. The limit is that the split governs who is in the travelling group rather than who starts, so the size of the change in the eleven itself is still open.
- Germany's head coach divided 44 nominated players into two squads, each covering two matches, to handle a run of four games in 11 days.
- Lennart Karl takes Karim Adeyemi's place for the matches against Serbia on 1 October and the return in Greece on 4 October, a swap attributed to workload management.
ReportedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 05:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Greece's winner in Augsburg came from a deflected Kourbelis effort after Germany had 75% of the ball and 16 attempts, so the first meeting was won against the run of possession. It matters here because it is the most recent meeting between these squads and it hands Germany an immediate seven-day chance to solve the same problem against the same opponent, this time away from home. The counterpoint is that Greece scored from one of only eight shots and one on target, a margin thin enough that the scoreline is a weak guide to how the return will go.
- Greece's 1-0 win in Augsburg on 27 September was their first victory over Germany in 11 meetings.
- Dimitrios Kourbelis scored in the 74th minute, his deflected shot going in off Joshua Kimmich after an assist from Christos Tzolis.
- Germany had 75% possession and 16 shots without scoring, and the fixture was Jürgen Klopp's first home match in charge of Germany.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 05:53 · Europe/BucharestESPN match reportwww.espn.com · 27 Sep 2026Greek Reporter reportgreekreporter.com · 28 Sep 2026bundesliga.com live blogwww.bundesliga.com · 27 Sep 2026
Klopp has one point from two competitive matches, the second of them his first home game in charge after a draw in Amsterdam. It matters because selection and approach are the measures under scrutiny for a coach whose 44-player group is being rotated across the window, and Thessaloniki is his first away assignment in the competition. The limitation is that the group on duty on 4 October was planned before the Augsburg result, so any response in personnel may be constrained rather than open.
- Germany drew 1-1 with the Netherlands and lost 1-0 to Greece in Klopp's first two matches in charge.
- The defeat in Augsburg on 27 September was his first home match as Germany head coach.
- Germany sit third in League A Group 2 on one point from two matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 05:53 · Europe/BucharestESPN match reportwww.espn.com · 27 Sep 2026bundesliga.com live blogwww.bundesliga.com · 27 Sep 2026
Greece lead League A Group 2 on six points while Germany have taken one, a five-point gap between two teams that meet again on 4 October. It matters because the top two finishers advance to the quarter-finals, so a second Greek win would leave Germany needing a strong finish rather than simply a response to the Augsburg result. The caveat is that this is round three of six, so the table sets the pressure without settling anything.
- Greece have six points from two matches after winning in Belgrade on 24 September and in Augsburg on 27 September, and lead League A Group 2.
- Germany have one point from two matches and sit third in the group.
- The top two finishers in the group advance to the quarter-finals.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 05:53 · Europe/BucharestGreek Reporter reportgreekreporter.com · 28 Sep 2026ESPN match reportwww.espn.com · 27 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
Germany remain the stronger squad and generated far more chances than Greece in the first meeting.
- Germany overall competitive record: 7 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 2.45 goals scored per game
- Germany away competitive record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game
- Germany kept 4 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Germany had 16 shots and 5 on target in the 1-0 defeat in Augsburg
BetBugs · Match WinnerGermanyMarket price2.00Estimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
First halves have been low-scoring for Greece, and Germany's away games start slowly.
- Greece first-half goals for and against per competitive match: 0.78 and 0.56
- Germany first-half goals for and against: 1.18 and 0.45 overall, 0.6 and 0.4 away
- The last meeting was goalless at half-time
- Greece have scored one first-half goal in their last six matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.30Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves tend to produce goals for either side, keeping a level outcome common.
- Greece's competitive second halves average 1.89 total goals; Germany's 1.64
- Germany's away second-half totals: 0.4 scored, 0.6 conceded
- The Augsburg meeting had one second-half goal
- Second halves are shared in 3 of Greece's last 6 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Greece are in better form, lead the group and beat Germany seven days ago, while Germany have created little on their travels. Germany remain the stronger squad and generated far more chances than Greece in the first meeting.
- Greece have won both Nations League matches, including 1-0 in Augsburg on 27 September
- Greece home competitive record: 2 wins, 1 loss, 2.67 goals scored per game
- Germany overall competitive record: 7 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 2.45 goals scored per game
- Germany away competitive record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double ChanceGreece or GermanyMarket price1.29Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Greece's home games have started strongly, though the first meeting was level at the break. First halves have been low-scoring for Greece, and Germany's away games start slowly.
- Greece first-half goals per competitive match: 0.78 scored, 0.56 conceded
- Greece home first-half averages: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded in 3 matches
- Greece first-half goals for and against per competitive match: 0.78 and 0.56
- Germany first-half goals for and against: 1.18 and 0.45 overall, 0.6 and 0.4 away
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfGreece or DrawMarket price1.48Estimated chance77%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Greece's recent matches and home games have been open, and Germany's big wins show they can add goals.
- Greece's last 6 competitive matches produced 17 goals; Germany's produced 23
- Greece's home competitive games average 4.67 total goals
- Germany's away competitive games average 2.0 total goals
- Four of Greece's last 6 and four of Germany's last 6 went over 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.65Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been scoring regularly and Greece have found the net in most of their recent matches.
- Greece scored in 7 of 9 competitive matches; Germany scored in 9 of 11
- Both teams scored in 4 of Greece's last 6 and 4 of Germany's last 6
- Greece's 3 competitive home matches produced 2 clean sheets for neither side (both scored in 2 of 3)
- Germany conceded in 3 of their last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half scoring rates point to a goal before the break in most matches.
- Greece score 0.78 and concede 0.56 first-half goals per competitive match
- Germany score 1.18 and concede 0.45 first-half goals per competitive match
- Germany's away first-half average is 0.6 scored, 0.4 conceded
- The Augsburg meeting was 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede and score after the break, and Greece's home second halves have been especially open.
- Greece's competitive second halves average 1.89 total goals
- Germany's competitive second halves average 1.64 total goals
- Greece's home second halves average 2.67 total goals
- The Augsburg meeting produced one second-half goal
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Germany's defensive record and Greece's recent scoring output point to a low home tally.
- Greece were limited to one goal or none in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Germany concede 0.82 goals per competitive match and 1.0 away
- Germany kept clean sheets in 4 of 11 competitive matches
- The Augsburg meeting produced one Greece goal
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalGreece under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Greece have found the net consistently, especially at home, making a Germany shutout unlikely.
- Greece scored in 7 of 9 competitive matches and 5 of their last 6
- Greece average 2.67 goals in home competitive matches
- Greece have 8 goals in their last 6 matches
- Germany's away matches produced 5 goals conceded in 5 games
BetBugs · Team to ScoreGreece to scoreEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Greece's home games generate plenty of corners and the first meeting already cleared this line.
- Greece home corners: 6.67 for, 6.0 against per match
- Germany away corners: 4.0 for, 5.6 against per match
- Greece overall corners average 9.78 combined; Germany 9.45
- The Augsburg meeting produced 10 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Market price2.05Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Germany's away games have produced few efforts on target, dragging the combined total down.
- Germany's away matches average 8.0 shots on target in total
- Germany's overall matches average 8.83 shots on target
- The Augsburg meeting produced 6 shots on target
- Greece home matches average 14.33 shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderUnder 11.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches generally finish below this combined shot figure.
- Greece overall combined shots: 27.0 per match
- Germany overall combined shots: 24.8 per match
- Germany away combined shots: 23.2 per match
- The Augsburg meeting produced 24 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderUnder 32.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card rates for both sides and a tense rematch point to a busy referee.
- Greece average 2.11 yellow cards and 1.67 for opponents per competitive match
- Germany average 1.22 yellow cards and 2.56 for opponents per competitive match
- Germany's away matches average 4.4 cards in total
- The Augsburg meeting produced 5 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance57%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 2W

W0-1GermanyvGreeceSep 27, 2026UEF

L2-1GermanyvGreeceJun 7, 2024FRI

L4-2GermanyvGreeceJun 22, 2012EUR

3.3 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Greece Play Offs: Quarter-finals	2	2	0	0	3-1	6	WW
3	Germany Relegation Playoffs	2	0	1	1	1-2	1	LD

5pt gap between teamsGreece leads the leagueGermany in relegation zone

Recent Form

Greece

D0-0HungaryMar 31FRI

L0-1ParaguayMar 27FRI

D0-0BelarusNov 18WOR

W3-2ScotlandNov 15WOR

L1-3DenmarkOct 12WOR

L1-3ScotlandOct 9WOR

L0-3DenmarkSep 8WOR

W5-1BelarusSep 5WOR

W4-0BulgariaJun 10FRI

W4-1SlovakiaJun 7FRI

W3-0ScotlandMar 23UEF

Germany

L0-1GreeceSep 27UEF

D1-1NetherlandsSep 24UEF

L1-2EcuadorJun 25WOR

W2-1Ivory CoastJun 20WOR

W7-1CuraçaoJun 14WOR

W2-1USAJun 6FRI

W4-0FinlandMay 31FRI

W2-1GhanaMar 30FRI

W4-3SwitzerlandMar 27FRI

W6-0SlovakiaNov 17WOR

W2-0LuxembourgNov 14WOR

W1-0Northern IrelandOct 13WOR

W4-0LuxembourgOct 10WOR

W3-1Northern IrelandSep 7WOR

L0-2SlovakiaSep 4WOR

Squad & Injuries

Greece

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Germany

23 available

Attackers3

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Greece or Draw

Draw

Over 9.5

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Greece or Germany

Over 2.5

Germany

Result0 of 0 landed

Goals0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Greece

Germany

Squad & Injuries

Greece

Germany