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Predictions graded

Swit Skolwin2Sokol Kleczew1

HT 1–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 04:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom-half II Liga East sides meet in Szczecin with neither winning at the relevant end: Świt Skolwin have no home league win in four, Sokół Kleczew one point from three league away trips.

Sokół won the last meeting 3-0, and the prices that hold up sit with the goals and with Sokół: both teams to score at 1.5, over 2.5 at 1.48, Sokół to win or draw at 1.67 and the draw at 3.8. The 1.2 on a first-half goal does not.

Context

Ładziak had been playing for Świt's fourth-tier reserves before the head coach put him back in the senior squad, so he adds an experienced option to a midfield that has been part of a defence conceding heavily. He is the clearest squad change around the first team that the club has made public, which makes him the likeliest fresh element in Saturday's selection. Nothing indicates whether the recall is short-term cover or a lasting return, so a starting place is not established.
- Adam Ładziak returned to Świt Skolwin's first-team squad for the league match at Rekord Bielsko-Biała on 18 September 2026 and came on in the 57th minute.
- The recall followed a run of good performances for the club's fourth-tier reserve side (22 September 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 04:34 · Europe/Bucharest
The home record is a clearer weakness than the general form: Świt have taken their only league win on the road and have been outscored by more than two goals a game in Szczecin, so a home fixture is not the obvious place for them to steady the season. They have scored in three of those four home matches, so even a strong Sokół performance is unlikely to leave them without chances.
- Świt Skolwin's league record after nine matches is one win, two draws and six losses, with nine goals scored and 23 conceded (standings, 30 September 2026).
- Their home league record is four matches without a win: no wins, one draw and three defeats, four goals scored and 10 conceded.
- They are 17th of 18 with five points.
The split is stark: Sokół have been difficult to beat in Kleczew but have conceded more than four goals a game on their league travels, so this trip tests the half of their season that has not held up. Their habit of drawing — five of nine league matches — is why they still sit above Świt, and a share of the points here would fit that pattern.
- Sokół Kleczew's league away record is no wins, one draw and two defeats from three matches, with three goals scored and 13 conceded (standings, 30 September 2026).
- Overall they have one win, five draws and three losses in nine league matches, with 10 scored and 21 conceded.
- At home they have one win, four draws and one defeat in six league matches.
Both of the last two meetings were decided by three goals and neither finished level, so the recent series has been decisive rather than cagey. The wider record stays close — six wins to five, with five draws — which gives the fixture real history without pointing either way. Both squads and both venues have turned over substantially since March, so the 3-0 result is better treated as a marker of Sokół's recent upper hand in the matchup than as a forecast for Saturday.
- Sokół Kleczew have won six of the 16 league meetings between the clubs, Świt Skolwin five, with five drawn (28 September 2026).
- Świt Skolwin won the September 2025 meeting in Szczecin 3-1 (3 September 2025).
- Sokół Kleczew won the return 3-0 on 13 March 2026, with goals from J. Tkaczyk, M. Śliwa and D. Dudziński.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 04:34 · Europe/BucharestLivescore match pagewww.livescore.com · 13 Mar 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sokół have the better points return and beat Świt convincingly in the last meeting.
- Sokół won the most recent meeting 3-0 in March 2026.
- Świt have conceded 23 goals in 9 league matches.
- Sokół have 8 points to Świt's 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSokol KleczewEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides tend to concede more than they score before the break, so a level half is plausible.
- Świt have a first-half goal difference of -3 at home (3 scored, 6 conceded).
- Sokół have a first-half goal difference of -3 away (4 scored, 7 conceded).
- Both teams are outscored in the first half on average.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides tend to concede more than they score after the break, so a level second half is plausible.
- Świt have a second-half goal difference of -3 at home (1 scored, 4 conceded).
- Sokół have a second-half goal difference of -6 away (3 scored, 9 conceded).
- Both teams are outscored after the break on average.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sokół have conceded 13 goals in three league away matches, giving Świt a real chance at home. Sokół have the better points return and beat Świt convincingly in the last meeting.
- Świt's home league record is 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses with 4 goals scored and 10 conceded.
- Sokół's away league record is 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses with 3 goals scored and 13 conceded.
- Sokół won the most recent meeting 3-0 in March 2026.
- Świt have conceded 23 goals in 9 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSwit Skolwin or Sokol KleczewEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides tend to concede more than they score before the break, so a level half is plausible. Świt concede regularly before the break, so Sokół can lead at half-time.
- Świt have a first-half goal difference of -3 at home (3 scored, 6 conceded).
- Sokół have a first-half goal difference of -3 away (4 scored, 7 conceded).
- Sokół score 0.67 first-half goals away and concede 1.17.
- Świt concede 1.5 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Sokol KleczewEstimated chance70%

Goals8 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both defenses have conceded heavily in these venues, so three goals is a reasonable target.
- Świt home matches average 3.5 total goals (1.0 for, 2.5 against).
- Sokół away competitive matches average 3.83 total goals (1.17 for, 2.67 against).
- Both teams have no clean sheets in their respective home/away splits.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both sides regularly score and concede in these venue splits.
- Świt home both teams scored in 3 of 4 matches.
- Sokół away both teams scored in 5 of 6 matches.
- Świt have no home clean sheets and Sokół have no away clean sheets.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Świt's home scoring rate is low, so under 1.5 is their more typical output.
- Świt average 1.0 goal per home match.
- Świt scored in 3 of 4 home matches but only four goals total.
- Sokół conceded 13 goals in three league away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSwit Skolwin under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sokół's away scoring rate is modest, so under 1.5 is a plausible outcome.
- Sokół average 1.17 goals per away competitive match.
- Sokół scored in 5 of 6 away matches but only seven goals total.
- Świt concede 2.5 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSokol Kleczew under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The evidence points away from a Świt clean sheet.
- Świt have no clean sheets in four home matches.
- Sokół scored in 5 of 6 away competitive matches.
- Świt concede 2.5 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSokol Kleczew to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sokół's away clean-sheet record is empty, so Świt scoring is the stronger side.
- Sokół have no clean sheets in six away competitive matches.
- Świt scored in 3 of 4 home matches.
- Sokół concede 2.67 goals per away competitive match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSwit Skolwin to scoreEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both defenses give up early chances, so a first-half goal is likely.
- Świt home first-half totals average 2.25 goals.
- Sokół away first-half totals average 1.83 goals.
- Both teams have conceded first-half goals in multiple recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half requirement makes a single blank more likely than in the full match.
- Świt scored three first-half goals and conceded six at home in four matches.
- Sokół scored four first-half goals and conceded seven away in six matches.
- First-half both teams scoring is harder to achieve than full-match both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sokół's away matches produce second-half goals, and Świt concede after the break.
- Świt home second-half totals average 1.25 goals.
- Sokół away second-half totals average 2.0 goals.
- Sokół have conceded nine second-half goals in six away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L3-0Sokół KleczewvŚwit SkolwinMar 13, 2026II

L3-1Świt SkolwinvSokół KleczewSep 3, 2025II

D2-2Sokół KleczewvŚwit SkolwinNov 25, 2023III

D2-2Świt SkolwinvSokół KleczewAug 4, 2023III

W0-1Świt SkolwinvSokół KleczewApr 15, 2023III

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Swit Skolwin	9	1	2	6	9-23	5	LLWDD
16	Sokol Kleczew	9	1	5	3	10-21	8	DDLDL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Swit Skolwin

L0-2Pogoń Szczecin IISep 23FRI

L0-3Rekord Bielsko-BiałaSep 18II

L1-5Chojniczanka ChojniceSep 12II

W4-1Lechia Zielona GóraSep 5II

D1-1Tychy 71Aug 30II

D1-1Znicz PruszkówAug 22II

L0-1Sandecja Nowy SączAug 15II

L0-5Legia Warszawa IIAug 9II

L0-3Hutnik KrakówAug 1II

L2-3Górnik ŁęcznaJul 25II

L0-1Stargard SzczecińskiJul 17FRI

W3-2Flota ŚwinoujścieJul 11FRI

W3-1Kluczevia StargardJul 8FRI

L0-1Miedz LegnicaJul 4FRI

L0-7GKS KatowiceJun 25FRI

Sokol Kleczew

D2-2Avia ŚwidnikSep 18II

D1-1Olimpia GrudziądzSep 11II

L0-4Górnik ŁęcznaSep 5II

W2-1Sokół OstródaSep 2CUP

D1-1Chojniczanka ChojniceAug 29II

L1-6Legia Warszawa IIAug 23II

W3-0Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 15II

L1-6Lechia Zielona GóraAug 8II

D0-0Podhale Nowy TargAug 1II

D1-1Zawisza BydgoszczJul 25II

W7-1Unia SwarzędzJul 17FRI

L0-1Lipno StęszewJul 4FRI

L0-1Górnik PolkowiceJun 6II

W2-1ŁKS Łódź IIMay 30II

L2-5Sandecja Nowy SączMay 23II

Squad & Injuries

Swit Skolwin

26 available

Attackers3

Midfielders16

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Sokol Kleczew

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Sokol Kleczew

Yes

Over 2.5

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals8 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Swit Skolwin

Sokol Kleczew

Squad & Injuries

Swit Skolwin

Sokol Kleczew