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Predictions graded

Leatherhead1Hanworth Villa0

HT 0–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges0–50%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 17:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Hanworth Villa arrive with eight wins from 11 and only two goals conceded across five away matches, but Leatherhead have won three of the last five meetings and average two goals at home.

Hanworth Villa are the likelier winners. Over 2.5 goals at 1.50, a first-half goal at 1.22 and Hanworth Villa to avoid defeat at 1.60 each carry a small advantage; the 2.63 on a Hanworth Villa win does not.

Context

Leatherhead have the better of this fixture overall, but the last meeting was the one where neither defence settled.
Six goals in the last meeting is the clearest single argument for a high-scoring tie, and the wider head-to-head agrees: four of the last five meetings produced at least three goals. The counterweight is defence - Leatherhead kept three clean sheets in six home matches and Hanworth Villa three in five away matches this season, so the February scoreline may not be the template.
- 14 February 2026: Hanworth Villa 3-3 Leatherhead, Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central.
- Result: draw, with three goals for each side.
The most recent meeting at Leatherhead's ground went the home side's way.
Leatherhead's edge in this fixture has come at their own ground, and 2-1 has been the repeated scoreline in those home wins. Hanworth Villa's away form this season, with three clean sheets in five matches, is the reason that home record does not settle the tie on its own.
- 18 October 2025: Leatherhead 2-1 Hanworth Villa, Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central, played at Leatherhead.
- Final score 2-1 to the home side.
This away run is the strongest part of Hanworth Villa's season so far.
Leatherhead have scored in five of six home matches and average two goals a game there, so this away record meets its stiffest test. Hanworth Villa have still won their recent away trips at Berkhamsted (2-1) and Pagham (6-0) and average 1.8 goals per away match, so the defensive numbers come with a scoring threat attached.
- 12 August - 22 September 2026: 5 away matches - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat.
- 3 clean sheets and 2 goals conceded in those 5 away matches (0.4 per match).
- Hanworth Villa scored in 3 of the 5 away matches, averaging 1.8 goals.
Leatherhead's recent matches have swung between tight and open, and this was the open end of the range.
It shows Leatherhead can recover from a poor half, and the 3-3 fits the pattern of their recent games, with four of their last six containing three or more goals. The first-half deficit is the warning: Hanworth Villa's last six matches have all featured a first-half goal.
- 22 September 2026: Three Bridges 3-3 Leatherhead, Non League Premier - Isthmian, played away.
- Half-time: 3-1 to Three Bridges; the second half finished 2-0 to Leatherhead.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.63
The read
Hanworth Villa's stronger overall form and excellent away defensive record make them a slight favourite.
- Hanworth Villa have 8 wins from 11 overall, averaging 2.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded.
- Hanworth Villa are unbeaten in 5 away matches (3W 1D 1L) and concede only 0.4 goals per away game.
- Leatherhead's home record is 3W 1D 2L, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.33 per game.
- Hanworth Villa have scored 2 or more goals in all of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHanworth VillaEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in first halves where the score was level, and a tight opening is plausible.
- Leatherhead drew the first half in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Hanworth Villa drew the first half in 1 of their last 6 matches.
- Leatherhead's home first-half goals average is 1.0; Hanworth Villa's away first-half goals average is 1.4.
- Hanworth Villa's away first-half defensive average is 0.2.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have had level second halves recently, and Hanworth Villa's away second halves are low-scoring.
- Leatherhead drew the second half in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Hanworth Villa drew the second half in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Hanworth Villa's away second-half average is 0.4 scored and 0.2 conceded.
- Leatherhead's home second-half average is 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leatherhead's home advantage and past success against Hanworth Villa at this venue give them a fighting chance. Hanworth Villa's stronger overall form and excellent away defensive record make them a slight favourite.
- Leatherhead have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings, including both home games 2-1.
- Leatherhead's home record is 3W 1D 2L, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.33 per game.
- Hanworth Villa have 8 wins from 11 overall, averaging 2.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded.
- Hanworth Villa are unbeaten in 5 away matches (3W 1D 1L) and concede only 0.4 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLeatherhead or Hanworth VillaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in first halves where the score was level, and a tight opening is plausible. Hanworth Villa's strong away first-half scoring and Leatherhead's moderate home first-half output make an away lead at the break likely.
- Leatherhead drew the first half in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Hanworth Villa drew the first half in 1 of their last 6 matches.
- Hanworth Villa average 1.4 first-half goals away and concede only 0.2.
- Hanworth Villa led at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Hanworth VillaEstimated chance78%

Goals2 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring recent matches, and the head-to-head record also points to goals.
- Over 2.5 goals was seen in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
- All 6 of Hanworth Villa's last 6 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Leatherhead's last 6 matches had over 2.5 goals in 4.
- Combined home/away averages suggest about 2.8 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both attacks have been productive, and Hanworth Villa have often conceded recently, making a clean sheet for either side less likely.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Hanworth Villa's last 6 matches.
- Leatherhead have scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Hanworth Villa have conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leatherhead's home scoring average suggests they can reach two goals, though Hanworth Villa's away defence is a major test.
- Leatherhead average 2.0 goals per home match this season.
- Leatherhead scored at least twice in two of their last three home matches.
- Hanworth Villa concede only 0.4 goals per away game.
- Leatherhead scored in 5 of their 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostLeatherhead over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hanworth Villa's away scoring and Leatherhead's home concession rate make two goals a realistic target.
- Hanworth Villa average 1.8 goals per away match this season.
- Hanworth Villa scored 2 at Berkhamsted and 6 at Pagham in recent away matches.
- Leatherhead concede 1.33 goals per home match.
- Hanworth Villa scored 2 or more in their two most recent away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostHanworth Villa over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hanworth Villa's away scoring threat makes a Leatherhead clean sheet less likely than not.
- Hanworth Villa have scored in 3 of their 5 away matches.
- Hanworth Villa average 1.8 goals per away match.
- Leatherhead have conceded in 3 of their 6 home matches.
- Hanworth Villa scored 6 at Pagham in their most recent away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHanworth Villa to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leatherhead's home scoring record and Hanworth Villa's recent concession rate make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Leatherhead have scored in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- Leatherhead average 2.0 goals per home match.
- Hanworth Villa have conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Hanworth Villa conceded 2 against Bishop's Stortford in their most recent match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLeatherhead to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Recent matches for both teams usually feature first-half goals, especially Hanworth Villa's.
- All 6 of Hanworth Villa's last 6 matches had at least one first-half goal.
- 4 of Leatherhead's last 6 matches had at least one first-half goal.
- Combined first-half averages suggest about 1.8 total first-half goals.
- Hanworth Villa average 1.4 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have kept first-half clean sheets frequently, making a first-half blank for one side plausible.
- Hanworth Villa's away first-half defensive average is 0.2.
- Leatherhead's home first-half defensive average is 0.33.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 2 of Leatherhead's last 6 matches.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 3 of Hanworth Villa's last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hanworth Villa's recent second halves have often produced multiple goals, making over 1.5 plausible.
- Hanworth Villa's last 6 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals in 5.
- Leatherhead's last 6 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals in 3.
- Combined second-half averages suggest about 1.6 total second-half goals.
- Hanworth Villa average 1.27 second-half goals overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

D3-3Hanworth VillavLeatherheadFeb 14, 2026NON

W2-1LeatherheadvHanworth VillaOct 18, 2025NON

W2-1LeatherheadvHanworth VillaApr 12, 2025NON

W0-1Hanworth VillavLeatherheadMar 18, 2025NON

L2-1Hanworth VillavLeatherheadApr 20, 2024NON

3.2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Leatherhead

D3-3Three BridgesSep 22NON

W1-0KingstonianSep 19FAC

D0-0WhyteleafeSep 15NON

W2-1AveleySep 12NON

W3-0Croydon AthleticSep 5FAC

L2-3Dulwich HamletAug 31NON

W1-0Eastbourne BoroughAug 29NON

L1-4Maldon & TiptreeAug 22NON

D2-2Burgess Hill TownAug 15NON

W4-1Welling UnitedAug 11NON

W2-1RamsgateAug 8NON

D1-1Ashford Town (Middlesex)Jul 25FRI

W3-2Dorking WanderersJul 11FRI

W2-0Bedfont SportsApr 25NON

W4-2SouthallApr 18NON

Hanworth Villa

W3-2Bishop's StortfordSep 26FA

W2-1BerkhamstedSep 22NON

W6-0PaghamSep 19FAC

L2-3Yate TownSep 12NON

W4-1Whitstable TownSep 5FAC

W4-1Chertsey TownAug 31NON

D0-0Wimborne TownAug 29NON

W4-1Evesham UnitedAug 22NON

L0-1Bath CityAug 15NON

W1-0Gosport BoroughAug 12NON

W2-0Taunton TownAug 8NON

W5-2Welwyn Garden CityJul 25FRI

W2-0KingstonianJul 21FRI

W2-1Carshalton AthleticJul 18FRI

W2-1St Albans CityJul 11FRI

Squad & Injuries

Leatherhead

10 available

Attackers2

Midfielders4

Defenders2

Goalkeeper2

Hanworth Villa

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw or Hanworth Villa

Yes

Hanworth Villa

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Leatherhead

Hanworth Villa

Squad & Injuries

Leatherhead

Hanworth Villa