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Predictions graded

Dorking Wanderers1Chatham Town0

HT 0–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges0–50%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 16:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Dorking, a division above their visitors, host a Chatham side that has won both FA Cup away ties without conceding.

Dorking are the likelier single winner, but five draws in 11 competitive matches leave this open. Three prices offer something: Chatham to avoid defeat (draw or away win) at 3.1, both teams to score at 1.67, and the draw at 5.75. Dorking to win at 1.38 does not.

Context

Dorking start George Nikaj, who scored the 116th-minute winner against Southall in the previous round after that tie had needed extra time. Femi Ilesanmi, signed at the start of September, is also in the XI, and James McShane and Jack Wood give the bench attacking depth. That is the clearest available guide to how seriously the home side are treating the tie, and to whether they keep the attacking personnel that carried them through the last round. The line-up lists players rather than positions, so it does not by itself reveal the shape Dorking will use.
- Dorking Wanderers' starting line-up for the tie: Glenn Morris, Brennan Camp, Dan Pybus, Harry Pinchard, Dennon Lewis, George Nikaj, Alfie Rutherford, Femi Ilesanmi, Dawid Rogalski, Josh Barrett, Louie Annesley.
- Charlie Sayers, Isaac Philpot, James McShane, Seb Tauta-Caballero, Jack Wood, Frank Vincent and George Francomb are among the substitutes.
- Femi Ilesanmi's arrival was the subject of a Dorking Wanderers update on 3 September 2026, which described him as that day's signing.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 16:52 · Europe/BucharestDorking Wanderers FC match pagedwfc.co.uk · 3 Oct 2026
Chatham pick a side built around Sid Nelson and Ollie Evans in defence and Adam Leathers in midfield, with academy graduate Mo Gibbs among the substitutes. Gibbs signed a senior contract on the morning of the tie and is the latest academy scholar given a route into the first-team squad. For a seventh-tier club travelling to higher-division opposition, the squad list shows a settled core rather than a heavily rotated cup line-up. Selection alone does not establish how Chatham will set up against a National League South side, which is the open question of the tie.
- Chatham Town's starting line-up for the tie: George Hardy, Ollie Evans, Jordy Robins, Sid Nelson, Bradley Stevenson, Harry Lodovica, Kian Garlinge, Adam Leathers, Jack Turner, Jack Lyons, Ollie Hobden.
- Nathan Harvey, Kian Moynes, Ben Allen, Dapo Olugbodi, Alex Giles, Kola Salami and Mo Gibbs are among the substitutes.
- Mo Gibbs signed a contract with Chatham Town's senior team on 3 October 2026 after coming through the club's academy.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 16:52 · Europe/BucharestDorking Wanderers FC match pagedwfc.co.uk · 3 Oct 2026
Dorking's route into this round was a two-match struggle with Southall: a 2-2 draw in the first meeting, then a 5-4 extra-time win at home in the return. George Nikaj settled the second game in the 116th minute after the scores had been level at 3-3 at the end of normal time. Southall play several levels below Dorking, so needing a replay and extra time to see off a lower-ranked side is a caution against assuming the division gap will settle this tie comfortably. The same pattern shows Dorking have the attacking players to win a chaotic cup game at Meadowbank.
- Dorking Wanderers beat Southall 5-4 after extra time at Meadowbank Stadium on 22 September 2026.
- George Nikaj scored in the 116th minute after the tie had been level at 3-3 at the end of normal time.
- The first meeting between the clubs in the second qualifying round, at Southall on 20 September 2026, finished 2-2.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 16:52 · Europe/Bucharest
Chatham have done all their FA Cup work away from home so far, winning 4-0 at Egham Town and then 1-0 at Slough Town without conceding a goal. That travel-and-clean-sheet record is the closest thing to a cup template they bring to Meadowbank, where they are again the visiting side. Winning twice on the road shows the squad can manage a cup day away from home. It does not settle how Chatham will cope with National League South opposition, which is the step up in class this round represents.
- Chatham Town won 4-0 away at Egham Town on 5 September 2026 in the first qualifying round.
- Chatham Town won 1-0 away at Slough Town on 19 September 2026 in the second qualifying round.
- Chatham have conceded no goals across their two FA Cup ties this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 16:52 · Europe/BucharestChatham Town FA Cup qualifying resultswww.espn.com · 19 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dorking's higher division and home advantage give them the edge, but their draw-heavy form keeps the game open.
- Dorking are a division higher and at home.
- Dorking have 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses overall this season.
- Chatham have won 3 of 7 away matches and both FA Cup away ties without conceding.
- Dorking have drawn five of eleven competitive matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDorking WanderersEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dorking's tendency to concede early and Chatham's modest first-half away scoring make a level first half the most likely.
- Dorking home first-half goals against average 1.4.
- Chatham away first-half goals for average 0.57.
- Dorking's last six first halves include one 0-0 and one 1-1.
- Chatham's last six first halves include one 0-0 and one 1-1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dorking are solid at home after the break, while Chatham also score in second halves, making a narrow home edge possible.
- Dorking second-half goals for average 0.91, against 0.55.
- Dorking home second-half goals for average 1.0, against 0.6.
- Chatham away second-half goals for average 1.0.
- Chatham away second-half goals against average 0.71.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDorking WanderersEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dorking's higher division and home advantage give them the edge, but their draw-heavy form keeps the game open. Dorking's frequent draws and Chatham's win-or-lose away form make a stalemate possible but not the main outcome.
- Dorking are a division higher and at home.
- Dorking have 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses overall this season.
- Dorking have drawn 5 of 11 competitive matches.
- Chatham have no draws in 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDorking Wanderers or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dorking score early at home but also concede, so a first-half lead is possible but not dominant. Dorking's tendency to concede early and Chatham's modest first-half away scoring make a level first half the most likely.
- Dorking first-half goals for average 1.27, against 1.09.
- Dorking home first-half goals for average 1.0, against 1.4.
- Dorking home first-half goals against average 1.4.
- Chatham away first-half goals for average 0.57.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDorking Wanderers or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly, and Dorking's recent games have produced plenty of goals.
- Dorking average 2.18 goals scored and 1.64 conceded overall.
- Dorking home matches average 2.0 goals for and 2.0 against.
- Chatham average 2.0 scored and 1.45 conceded overall.
- Chatham away matches average 1.57 scored and 1.29 conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams find the net often, and Dorking's home games have featured goals for and against.
- Dorking scored in 9 of 11 and conceded in 8 of 11.
- Chatham scored in 10 of 11 and conceded in 7 of 11.
- Dorking scored in 4 of 5 home matches and conceded in 4 of 5.
- Chatham scored in 6 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
First-half goals have been common in Dorking's recent matches, and Chatham score occasionally early away.
- Dorking home first-half total average 2.4 goals.
- Chatham away first-half total average 1.14 goals.
- Dorking scored in five of last six first halves.
- Dorking conceded in five of last six first halves.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chatham's low first-half away scoring makes it less likely that both teams find the net before the break.
- Chatham scored in only three of their last six first halves.
- Chatham's away first-half goals for average is 0.57.
- Dorking had a 0-0 first half against Truro.
- Chatham had a 0-0 first half at Dartford.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the second half, and Chatham's away games have produced late goals.
- Dorking home second-half total average 1.6 goals.
- Chatham away second-half total average 1.71 goals.
- Dorking's last six second halves had over 1.5 in three.
- Chatham's last six second halves had over 1.5 in four.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Recent Form

Dorking Wanderers

W4-3BraintreeSep 26NAT

D2-2SouthallSep 20FAC

D2-2TorquaySep 12NAT

D3-3Chelmsford CitySep 8NAT

D3-3Billericay TownSep 5NAT

W1-0Truro CityAug 31NAT

W4-1Walton & HershamAug 29NAT

L2-3Maidstone UtdAug 22NAT

W3-0AFC TottonAug 18NAT

D0-0MaidenheadAug 15NAT

L0-1Dagenham & RedbridgeAug 8NAT

L0-1Dulwich HamletJul 28FRI

W2-1LewesJul 25FRI

L2-3LeatherheadJul 11FRI

W1-0Bognor Regis TownJul 4FRI

Chatham Town

L1-3BerkhamstedSep 26FA

W1-0Slough TownSep 19FAC

L1-2Eastbourne BoroughSep 15NON

W3-2LewesSep 12NON

W4-0Egham TownSep 5FAC

L0-1DartfordAug 31NON

L2-3Wingate & FinchleyAug 29NON

W3-0WhitehawkAug 22NON

W3-1Three BridgesAug 15NON

W3-1Dulwich HamletAug 11NON

L1-3St Albans CityAug 8NON

L0-3Maidstone UtdAug 1FRI

L1-2MargateJul 18FRI

L0-2Herne BayJul 7FRI

D2-2Slough TownJul 4FRI

Squad & Injuries

Dorking Wanderers

34 available

Attackers8

Midfielders15

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Chatham Town

22 available

Attackers4

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Chatham Town

Yes

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Recent Form

Dorking Wanderers

Chatham Town

Squad & Injuries

Dorking Wanderers

Chatham Town