Uzbekistan44 – 1Syria1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.33

The read

Uzbekistan have home conditions and the stronger squad, and their recent heavy defeats came against World Cup-level opponents.

• Uzbekistan are home in Tashkent and have scored in all four home competitive matches, averaging 2.25 goals.
• Syria played Jordan in Amman on 27 September before travelling, their second match of the window.
• Uzbekistan's last three competitive games were World Cup defeats (1-3, 0-5, 1-3) against far stronger opposition.
• Syria's competitive record is 8 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, but mostly against lower-ranked Asian teams.

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUzbekistanEstimated chance48%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Uzbekistan have home conditions and the stronger squad, and their recent heavy defeats came against World Cup-level opponents. Recent meetings have been tight and Syria's defensive record points to a low-scoring contest that can end level.

• Uzbekistan are home in Tashkent and have scored in all four home competitive matches, averaging 2.25 goals.
• Syria played Jordan in Amman on 27 September before travelling, their second match of the window.
• Five of the last six meetings between these teams were decided by one goal or ended level.
• Syria's two most recent draws came in low-scoring Arab Cup games (0-0 with Palestine, 1-1 with Qatar).

BetBugs · Double ChancewonUzbekistan or DrawEstimated chance75%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Syria start slowly and defend well early, so a first-half home lead is possible but not the likeliest outcome. Both teams score little before the break, and Syria in particular have gone in level in almost every recent match.

• Uzbekistan average 0.5 first-half goals at home and 0.75 conceded.
• Syria concede 0.09 first-half goals per competitive match and 0.0 away.
• Syria's competitive matches average 0.73 total first-half goals.
• Uzbekistan's competitive matches average 1.57 total first-half goals.

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonUzbekistan or DrawEstimated chance81%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Uzbekistan's recent matches have been consistently high-scoring, and Syria have scored freely against weaker sides.

• Uzbekistan's last six competitive matches all produced three goals or more.
• Uzbekistan average 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded per competitive match.
• Syria's last six competitive matches produced two goals or fewer in four of them.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both teams score regularly, Uzbekistan at home and Syria on their travels, so both finding the net is a reasonable outcome.

• Uzbekistan conceded in 6 of 7 competitive matches and in 3 of 4 at home.
• Syria scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches and in 4 of 5 away games.
• The two sides' recent competitive games had both teams scoring in 5 of 7 and 3 of 11 respectively.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Against better opposition Syria's scoring drops sharply, as their Arab Cup games against Morocco, Tunisia and Palestine showed.

• Syria's competitive scoring average of 2.27 per game is built largely on weak opponents.
• Uzbekistan have kept one clean sheet in seven competitive matches.
• Syria managed one goal in total across their Arab Cup matches against Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia.

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSyria under 1.5Estimated chance68%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Uzbekistan concede in most games at home, and Syria usually find at least one goal.

• Uzbekistan conceded in 6 of 7 competitive matches and in 3 of 4 at home.
• Syria scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches.
• Syria have scored in four of their five away competitive matches.

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSyria to scoreEstimated chance67%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Uzbekistan have scored in every home competitive match in this sample, which points to Syria conceding.

• Uzbekistan scored in every home competitive match in this window.
• Uzbekistan's home goals-for average is 2.25 per game.
• Syria's four conceded goals in 11 competitive matches came against tougher opponents like Morocco.

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonUzbekistan to scoreEstimated chance81%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Uzbekistan usually concede even when they win, and Syria almost always score.

• Uzbekistan have one clean sheet in seven competitive matches.
• Syria were shut out only once in 11 competitive matches.
• Uzbekistan's home wins over Gabon and Kyrgyzstan came with 1 and 0 goals conceded respectively.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Uzbekistan's matches usually produce a first-half goal even though Syria's recent games have been goalless early.

• Five of Syria's last six competitive matches had no first-half goals.
• Uzbekistan's six most recent competitive matches had first-half goals in all six.
• Uzbekistan average 0.71 first-half goals and concede 0.86 per competitive match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Low first-half scoring on both sides makes it very likely only one team, or neither, scores before the break.

• Syria's away competitive first halves have produced no goals against them.
• Uzbekistan average 0.5 first-half goals at home.
• Five of Syria's last six competitive matches were 0-0 at half-time.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second halves carry the goals for both teams, so two or more after the break is a fair outcome.

• Uzbekistan home matches average 2.25 total second-half goals.
• Syria away competitive matches average 1.8 second-half goals in total.
• Both teams score the bulk of their goals in this period.