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Predictions graded

HB Koge Women5Servette Chenois Women1

HT 3–0Thu 1 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions14–193%

Edges4–450%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 14–12On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 01:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Both sides lost their Champions League openers, and Servette now travel to a Køge side that has scored in every tracked home match.

Køge look the likelier winner, but 1.25 for a home win asks more than their form supports; the draw or a Servette win at 3.6, a Servette win at 9, and both teams to score at 2 are where the quoted prices offer something.

Context

Lyon, the record eight-time winners, scored eight unanswered goals at the Stade de Genève in what was Servette Chênois's first Champions League match in five years. It frames this fixture because it is the only elite-level sample of Servette's league-phase side and it sits directly before their trip to Denmark. The counterweight is the opponent: the rout came against the competition's most decorated club, so it should not be read as Servette's baseline against a side outside that bracket.
- Lyon, the competition's record eight-time winners, beat Servette Chênois 8-0 at the Stade de Genève.
- The match was Servette Chênois's first Women's Champions League fixture in five years.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Karchouni came on in the 65th minute against Gambarogno, nine months and 20 days after a serious knee injury, and marked the appearance with a penalty. It matters here because Servette go into the Køge trip with a squad member back available rather than an unchanged group. The caveat is the setting: the minutes came in a 12-0 cup rout of much weaker opposition, so they point to fitness rather than to readiness for a full European role.
- Ghoutia Karchouni came on in the 65th minute against AS Gambarogno, nine months and 20 days after a serious knee injury.
- She scored a penalty later in the same 12-0 Swiss Cup match.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Servette's 12-0 win at AS Gambarogno was their only match between the 8-0 defeat by Lyon and this trip to Køge. It matters because it is the freshest look at the side's attacking shape and the depth behind the first team between league-phase fixtures. The limitation is the opposition: a Swiss Cup tie against lower-tier opponents cannot stand in for a Champions League away match, so the value is in the response and the rotation rather than the scoreline itself.
- Servette won 12-0 away to AS Gambarogno in the Swiss Cup on 26 September, leading 5-0 at half-time.
- Mickaëlla Cardia scored four, Meriame Terchoun and Garance Nein two each, with S. Da Eira, G. Karchouni, B. Simon and N. Carage also scoring.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:26 · Europe/Bucharest
HB Køge beat Kolding 4-1 at home, a result that kept them four points clear at the top of the Danish A-Liga after nine rounds, five days before hosting Servette. It matters because it shows the domestic form and the spread of scorers, from Zuzanna Witek to Mai Wendicke, that Køge carry into their second Champions League matchday. The limitation is the level: the Danish league sits below the league phase, so the scoreline does not transfer directly into this fixture.
- HB Køge beat Kolding 4-1 at home on 26 September, moving four points clear at the top of the Danish A-Liga after nine rounds.
- Zuzanna Witek, Kyra Carusa, Catherine Paulson and Mai Wendicke scored for Køge.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:26 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Koge's strong home record and much tighter defensive numbers give them the better chance against a Servette side that conceded heavily in its only Champions League outing.
- HB Koge overall: 12W-1D-2L in 15 competitive matches, 2.6 scored and 0.93 conceded per game
- HB Koge at home: 7W-1D-1L with 3.22 scored and 1.22 conceded per game
- Servette away: 4W-0D-2L, 2.33 scored and 1.5 conceded per game
- Servette lost their Champions League opener 0-8 to Lyon; Koge lost 0-1 to Arsenal
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHB Koge WomenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Koge start home matches strongly and Servette have shown first-half vulnerability against top opposition.
- HB Koge first-half goals at home: 1.56 scored and 0.44 conceded per match
- Servette first-half goals away: 0.83 scored and 0.67 conceded per match
- Koge led or were level at half-time in most recent domestic matches
- Servette conceded 4 first-half goals against Lyon
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonHB Koge WomenEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Koge finish home matches strongly, and Servette's second-half defence has been vulnerable against top-level opposition.
- HB Koge second-half goals at home: 1.67 scored and 0.78 conceded per match
- Servette second-half goals away: 1.5 scored and 0.83 conceded per match
- Koge scored 3 second-half goals against Kolding and 2 against Midtjylland
- Servette conceded 4 second-half goals against Lyon
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonHB Koge WomenEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Koge's strong home record and much tighter defensive numbers give them the better chance against a Servette side that conceded heavily in its only Champions League outing. Servette score regularly on their travels and have already won a Champions League match this season, so an away win is a live outcome.
- HB Koge overall: 12W-1D-2L in 15 competitive matches, 2.6 scored and 0.93 conceded per game
- HB Koge at home: 7W-1D-1L with 3.22 scored and 1.22 conceded per game
- Servette overall: 11W-1D-3L in 15 competitive matches, 2.2 scored and 1.33 conceded per game
- Servette away: 4W-0D-2L with 2.33 scored and 1.5 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHB Koge Women or Servette Chenois WomenEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Koge start home matches strongly and Servette have shown first-half vulnerability against top opposition. Both teams have gone into the break level in recent matches, and first halves between evenly matched sides are often tight.
- HB Koge first-half goals at home: 1.56 scored and 0.44 conceded per match
- Servette first-half goals away: 0.83 scored and 0.67 conceded per match
- HB Koge first-half goals at home: 1.56 scored and 0.44 conceded
- Servette first-half goals away: 0.83 scored and 0.67 conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHB Koge Women or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals9 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' recent scorelines are consistently high, and Koge's home games in particular produce goals at both ends.
- HB Koge home matches average 3.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded
- Servette away matches average 2.33 scored and 1.5 conceded
- Koge's last four competitive matches produced 5, 1, 4 and 4 goals
- Servette's last five competitive matches produced 8, 0, 3, 5 and 4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Servette find the net regularly away from home and Koge concede in most matches, so both sides scoring is the more likely single outcome.
- Both teams scored in 8 of HB Koge's 15 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 7 of Servette's 15 competitive matches
- Servette scored in all 6 away matches tracked
- HB Koge scored in 14 of 15 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Koge's home scoring rate is high enough that two or more goals is a realistic outcome.
- HB Koge average 3.22 goals per home match across 9 matches
- Koge scored in all 9 home matches tracked
- Koge scored 2 or more in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Servette conceded 1.5 per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHB Koge Women over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Servette's regular away scoring makes it likely Koge concede at least once.
- Servette scored in all 6 away matches tracked
- Servette scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches
- HB Koge conceded in 9 of 15 competitive matches
- Koge conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonServette Chenois Women to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Koge have scored in every home match in the sample, so a Servette clean sheet looks unlikely.
- HB Koge scored in all 9 home matches tracked
- Koge scored in 14 of 15 competitive matches overall
- Servette kept only 1 clean sheet in 6 away matches
- Koge average 3.22 goals per home match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHB Koge Women to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Servette's habit of scoring on the road makes a Koge win without conceding unlikely.
- Servette scored in all 6 away matches tracked
- Koge kept only 3 clean sheets in 9 home matches
- Koge conceded 1.22 goals per home match
- Servette scored 6 times across those 6 away matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams score early often enough that at least one first-half goal is the strongly favoured outcome.
- HB Koge home first-half goals: 1.56 for and 0.44 against per match
- Servette away first-half goals: 0.83 for and 0.67 against per match
- 5 of Koge's last 6 competitive matches had a first-half goal
- 5 of Servette's last 6 competitive matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Koge's low first-half concession rate at home makes a split first half unlikely.
- HB Koge home first-half goals conceded: 0.44 per match
- Koge kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches, several with goalless or single-goal first halves
- Servette away first-half goals scored: 0.83 per match
- Koge conceded 2 first-half goals only once in their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half goal rates sit above the line individually, making two or more second-half goals the more likely outcome.
- HB Koge second-half goals at home: 1.67 scored and 0.78 conceded per match, a combined 2.45
- Servette second-half goals away: 1.5 scored and 0.83 conceded per match, a combined 2.33
- 4 of Koge's last 6 competitive matches had at least two second-half goals
- 3 of Servette's last 6 competitive matches had at least two second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two matches against similar-level Champions League opponents produced six corners each, below the line.
- HB Koge corners: 2 matches tracked, 2.0 for and 6.5 against
- Servette corners: 2 matches tracked, 1.5 for and 6.5 against
- Koge v PSV produced 6 corners in total
- Servette v Sparta Praha produced 6 corners in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance54%

League Table

UEFA Champions League Women 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	HB Koge Women	1	0	0	1	0-1	0	L
18	Servette Chenois Women	1	0	0	1	0-8	0	L

Recent Form

HB Koge Women

W4-1KoldingQ WSep 26KVI

L0-1Arsenal WSep 22UEF

W4-0Midtjylland WSep 19KVI

W2-1Fortuna Hjørring WSep 12KVI

L4-6Nordsjælland WSep 5KVI

D1-1PSV/Eindhoven WSep 2UEF

W2-0AGF WAug 29KVI

W1-0PSV/Eindhoven WAug 26UEF

W2-1Brøndby WAug 19KVI

W3-0Odense Q WAug 15KVI

W2-1Hearts WAug 8UEF

W4-1Riga WAug 5UEF

W4-0ASA Aarhus WAug 1KVI

W3-0FC Copenhagen WJul 28KVI

W3-1KoldingQ WJun 13KVI

Servette Chenois Women

L0-8Lyon WSep 23UEF

D0-0Zürich WSep 18AXA

W2-1Rapperswil Jona WSep 12AXA

W3-2Yverdon WSep 9AXA

W3-1Grasshopper WSep 6AXA

W3-0Sparta Praha WSep 2UEF

W2-1Basel WAug 29AXA

L2-3Sparta Praha WAug 26UEF

L2-3Young Boys WAug 21AXA

W3-0Aarau WAug 15AXA

W4-0Aktobe WAug 7UEF

W3-0Dinamo-BGU WAug 4UEF

W2-0Young Boys WMay 29AXA

W2-1Young Boys WMay 25AXA

W2-0Zürich WMay 15AXA

Squad & Injuries

HB Koge Women

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Servette Chenois Women

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper5

HB Koge Women5Servette Chenois Women1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Servette Chenois Women

Servette Chenois Women

Draw or Servette Chenois Women

Servette Chenois Women

Yes

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Over 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals9 of 9 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

League Table

Recent Form

HB Koge Women

Servette Chenois Women

Squad & Injuries

HB Koge Women

Servette Chenois Women