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Predictions graded

San Marino0Albania3

HT 0–2Tue 29 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions13–287%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 28%–72%ShotsShots 6–14On targetOn target 1–8CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 01:33 · Europe/Bucharest

San Marino's home game against Albania in their debut League C campaign is a wide mismatch.

Albania should win without conceding. Both teams to score — no, at 1.22, and three or more goals, at 1.36, are the two quoted selections with a case behind them; Albania to win at 1.05, Albania to lead at half-time at 1.29 and at least one first-half goal at 1.17 ask more than the record does.

Context

Maran is in charge of Albania for this four-match Nations League window and the squad he named is his first competitive selection. Mirlind Daku said on 23 September that players feel much more valued under the new staff and that the group expects a more attacking style with the ball. A new coach's first competitive fixtures usually bring less predictable personnel and structure than a settled side, and this squad already reflects that with omissions and recalls. The attacking emphasis rests on player comments rather than a detailed plan from Maran, so the exact shape remains open.
- Albania-focused and foreign outlets name Rolando Maran as the head coach who selected the squad for the four Nations League fixtures, an appointment dating to 2026.
- Mirlind Daku, 23 September: "We players feel much more valued under Maran than we did before."
- Maran said at the squad-announcement press conference that the immediate objective is to win the Nations League.
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 01:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Albania's squad for the four fixtures drops Bajrami and Broja, two long-standing attacking options, along with midfielders Pajaziti and Laci. Maran's first competitive selection therefore mixes returning veterans such as Berisha, Kumbulla and Balliu with new faces in Samuele Sina, Sabah Kerjota and Klevi Qefalija. That matters here because the attacking personnel and bench Albania bring to San Marino will not be the group that finished the previous campaign. The omissions were reported by Albania-focused outlets and the federation published the squad without explaining them.
- FootballAlbXI, 19 September: "the biggest omissions are undoubtedly Nedim Bajrami and Armando Broja, who have both been left out."
- Window Intl Pod, 23 September: Adrion Pajaziti and Qazim Laci were replaced by Feta Fetai and Klevi Qefalija.
- The same squad lists returns for Etrit Berisha, Mario Dajsinani, Marash Kumbulla, Ivan Balliu, Ernest Muci and Rey Manaj.
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 01:31 · Europe/Bucharest
San Marino's federation framed the coming fortnight as four matches in ten days, beginning with home games against Finland and Albania and continuing with trips to Budapest and Tirana. For a squad drawn largely from semi-professional and lower-division players, the second of those home games is where fatigue and selection changes are most likely, and that is the fixture against Albania. No line-up has been signalled, so the practical effect is uncertainty over how heavily the coach rotates between Saturday and Tuesday. The federation presented the run as an opportunity rather than a problem.
- FSGC, 24 September: "due settimane senza precedenti: 4 partite in 10 giorni per i Titani, a partire dagli incontri casalinghi con Finlandia e Albania."
- FSGC adds that San Marino then "voleranno a Budapest e Tirana" for their next two fixtures.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 01:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Balliu had been considering retiring from international football, but Maran asked the Rayo Vallecano defender to return because Albania were short at right-back, and he is in the squad for the four fixtures. Full-back width matters in a game Albania are expected to dominate, because a deep-lying opponent forces the width to come from the defensive flanks. The recall is presented as cover for a shortage rather than a change in the player's own form. The report originates from Albanian media rather than a federation announcement.
- TELESPORT via KuqeZiFootball, 10 September: Maran asked Rayo Vallecano's Ivan Balliu to join Albania despite the defender considering international retirement, with Albania facing an emergency at right-back.
- Window Intl Pod lists Balliu among the returning players, with his last Albania appearance in March.
- I. Balliu started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 01:31 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Albania

1.05fair 1.06

BetBugs 94% · Market 95.2%

−1.2ppshort

Albania are far stronger and San Marino have been heavily beaten in almost every recent competitive match, including all four home games.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.17fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 85.5%

−5.5ppshort

San Marino concede early regularly, and Albania often score before half-time.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Albania

1.29fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 77.5%

−2.5ppshort

Albania score early often while San Marino concede regularly before half-time.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Albania are far stronger and San Marino have been heavily beaten in almost every recent competitive match, including all four home games.
- Albania: 4W-2D-4L in last 10 competitive matches, 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
- San Marino: 1W-0D-8L in last 9 competitive matches, 4.44 goals conceded per game.
- San Marino home: 0W-0D-4L, 4.75 goals conceded per home match.
- H2H: Albania won 5-0 and 2-0 in 2021 World Cup qualifying.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlbaniaEstimated chance94%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Albania score early often while San Marino concede regularly before half-time.
- Albania first half: 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per match.
- San Marino first half: 0.11 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match.
- San Marino home first half: 0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per match.
- Albania recent: led at half-time in 3 of last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAlbaniaEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Marino concede heavily after half-time, and Albania should still be the stronger side in the second half.
- San Marino second half: 2.44 goals conceded per match.
- San Marino home second half: 2.75 goals conceded per match.
- Albania second half: 0.3 goals scored per match.
- Albania away second half: 0.2 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAlbaniaEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albania are far stronger and San Marino have been heavily beaten in almost every recent competitive match, including all four home games. Albania's away form includes a draw, so a stalemate is not impossible if they fail to break San Marino down.
- Albania: 4W-2D-4L in last 10 competitive matches, 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
- San Marino: 1W-0D-8L in last 9 competitive matches, 4.44 goals conceded per game.
- San Marino drew 0 of last 9 competitive matches.
- Albania drew 2 of last 10 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AlbaniaEstimated chance99%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albania score early often while San Marino concede regularly before half-time. Albania have been level at half-time in half of their recent matches, so a tight first half is possible.
- Albania first half: 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per match.
- San Marino first half: 0.11 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match.
- Albania recent: drew first half in 3 of last 6 matches.
- San Marino first half: conceded 2.0 goals per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AlbaniaEstimated chance95%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
San Marino concede heavily at home, and Albania should score enough to push the total over 2.5.
- San Marino home: 4.75 goals conceded per match.
- San Marino overall: 4.44 goals conceded per competitive match.
- Albania away: 0.8 goals scored per match.
- Albania recent: scored 5 goals in last 6 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
San Marino's attack has been almost non-existent, while Albania's defence has been reliable.
- San Marino failed to score in 8 of last 9 competitive matches.
- Albania kept 5 clean sheets in last 10 competitive matches.
- Albania away: conceded 5 goals in 5 away matches.
- San Marino home: 1 goal scored in 4 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albania should score at least twice against San Marino's very weak defence, even though their away scoring has been modest.
- Albania away: 0.8 goals scored per match.
- Albania recent: scored 1 goal in five of last six matches.
- San Marino home: 4.75 goals conceded per match.
- San Marino overall: 4.44 goals conceded per match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAlbania over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Marino have scored only once in their last nine competitive matches, and Albania have kept clean sheets in half of theirs.
- Albania kept 5 clean sheets in last 10 competitive matches.
- Albania away: 2 clean sheets in 5 away matches.
- San Marino scored in 1 of last 9 competitive matches.
- San Marino home: 1 goal in 4 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSan Marino not to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albania often win narrowly, and their clean-sheet record against a weak San Marino attack supports a win without conceding.
- Albania won 3 of last 6 competitive matches, all by 1-0 or 1-2? Actually wins: Andorra 1-0, Serbia 1-0, Latvia 1-0.
- Albania kept 5 clean sheets in last 10 competitive matches.
- San Marino failed to score in 8 of last 9 competitive matches.
- Albania away: 2 wins in 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonYesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
San Marino concede early regularly, and Albania often score before half-time.
- San Marino first half: 2.0 goals conceded per match.
- San Marino home first half: 2.0 goals conceded per match.
- Albania first half: 0.6 goals scored per match.
- Albania recent: scored in the first half in 4 of last 6 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Marino concede many second-half goals, so the second half should produce at least two goals.
- San Marino second half: 2.44 goals conceded per match.
- San Marino home second half: 2.75 goals conceded per match.
- Albania second half: 0.3 goals scored per match.
- Albania recent: 2 goals in second half across last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent corner totals are mixed, and several San Marino home games stayed under 8.5.
- San Marino home total corners average: 8.75.
- Albania away total corners average: 7.6.
- San Marino recent home totals: 6,7,10.
- Albania recent totals: 8,10,4,6,6,15.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Marino's matches consistently produce high shot totals because they concede many attempts.
- San Marino overall: 5.67 shots for, 21.11 against per match.
- San Marino home: 4.5 shots for, 20 against per match.
- Albania away: 8.2 shots for, 10.6 against per match.
- San Marino recent matches: total shots 28,23,29,26,30,26.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 15.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Marino concede many shots on target, and Albania should register enough to clear 4.5.
- San Marino overall: 1.44 shots on target for, 9.44 against per match.
- San Marino home: 1 shot on target for, 9.5 against per match.
- Albania away: 2 shots on target for, 4 against per match.
- San Marino recent SOT totals: 14,7,15,11,15,6.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance85%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.05 price requires 95.2%, above our 94.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 2W

L5-0AlbaniavSan MarinoSep 8, 2021WOR

L0-2San MarinovAlbaniaMar 31, 2021WOR

D0-0San MarinovAlbaniaMar 27, 2020FRI

Albania unbeaten in 3 meetingsAlbania: 3 clean sheets2.3 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	San Marino Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
1	Albania Promotion	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

San Marino leads the leagueAlbania leads the leagueSan Marino in relegation zone

Recent Form

San Marino

L1-2AzerbaijanJun 9FRI

L1-2BangladeshJun 5FRI

D0-0AndorraMar 31FRI

L1-2Faroe IslandsMar 28FRI

L1-7RomaniaNov 18WOR

L0-1CzechiaNov 13FRI

L0-4CyprusOct 12WOR

L0-10AustriaOct 9WOR

L1-3MaltaSep 9FRI

L0-6Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 6WOR

L0-4AustriaJun 10WOR

L0-1Bosnia & HerzegovinaJun 7WOR

L1-5RomaniaMar 24WOR

L0-2CyprusMar 21WOR

W3-1LiechtensteinNov 18UEF

Albania

L0-1LuxembourgJun 6FRI

L0-1IsraelJun 3FRI

L0-1UkraineMar 31FRI

L1-2PolandMar 26WOR

L0-2EnglandNov 16WOR

W1-0AndorraNov 13WOR

W4-2JordanOct 14FRI

W1-0SerbiaOct 11WOR

W1-0LatviaSep 9WOR

W1-0GibraltarSep 4FRI

D1-1LatviaJun 10WOR

D0-0SerbiaJun 7WOR

W3-0AndorraMar 24WOR

L0-2EnglandMar 21WOR

L1-2UkraineNov 19UEF

Squad & Injuries

San Marino

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper5

Albania

34 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper6

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Over 2.5

Albania

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Albania

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Albania

Albania

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

San Marino

Albania

Squad & Injuries

San Marino

Albania