Burundi22 – 2Algeria2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Algeria have finished matches strongly, scoring twice in the second half in their two most recent wins.

• Algeria second-half goals for: 1.0 per match
• Burundi second-half goals against: 0.5 per match
• Algeria scored twice after the break against Zambia and Jordan

BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAlgeriaEstimated chance49%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Burundi's low scoring and Algeria's habit of conceding leave a single-goal margin in range, which makes a share of the points plausible without being the most likely outcome. Algeria score twice as often as Burundi and won seven of eleven competitive games, while Burundi were beaten in nine of twelve and lost their opener 1-0 to Togo.

• Algeria: 1 draw in 11 competitive matches in this window
• Burundi: 0 draws in 12 competitive matches
• Algeria: 7 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats in 11 competitive matches
• Algeria goalsFor average 2.0 per match; Burundi 1.08

BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AlgeriaEstimated chance87%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Algeria average two goals a game and Burundi's clean sheets came mostly against Chad, so the away side is likely to score.

• Algeria scored 22 goals in 11 competitive matches
• Burundi conceded in 9 of 12 competitive matches
• Algeria scored in each of their last four competitive wins

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAlgeria to scoreEstimated chance74%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Although Burundi rarely score, Algeria concede regularly and the home side only need one goal to end this.

• Burundi scored in 3 of 12 competitive matches at an average of 1.08
• Algeria conceded in each of their last six
• Algeria away split: 1.6 goals conceded per match

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBurundi to scoreEstimated chance75%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Algeria's recent record shows goals conceded in every match, so even a win is more likely to come with a goal against than without.

• Algeria conceded in each of their last six competitive matches
• Algeria away split: 1.6 goals conceded per match
• Burundi beat Chad 4-0 twice at home in March

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates sit near one goal a match, which makes a goal before the break more likely than not.

• Algeria first-half goals for 1.0 per match; Burundi 0.58
• Algeria conceded first-half goals in 5 of 11 competitive matches
• Burundi's last six matches produced first-half goals in four

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Burundi contribute very little after the break, which drags the expected second-half total below the line.

• Burundi second-half goals for and against: 1.0 per match combined
• Algeria second-half average total 1.82
• Burundi scored 0 second-half goals in four of their last six

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Algeria generate above four corners a game and their opponents get three, which puts the combined total around the line.

• Algeria corners 4.44 per match, opponents 3.22 (9 matches)
• Burundi corners 3.0, opponents 4.5 (2 matches)
• Burundi's opener produced 15 corners

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' recent matches have averaged around three and a half cards, so passing 2.5 is the more likely outcome.

• Burundi yellows 1.5 plus opponent 2.0 per match (4 matches)
• Algeria yellows 1.375 plus opponent 2.25 (8 matches)
• Burundi's opener produced 4 yellows; Algeria's last match 3