Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean
Over 2.5
2.20fair 1.82
Market 45.5% · BetBugs 55%
+9.5ppedge
Both defences concede regularly and the combined scoring rates put the expected total slightly above the 2.5 line.
UEFA Nations League·Full time·Featured
Predictions graded
Bulgaria00 – 0
Estonia0
HT 0–0· · Predictions graded
Predictions7–750%
Edges1–420%
PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 17–6On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 6–6
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Bulgaria host Estonia in Plovdiv with both sides carrying losing records, and the likeliest outcome is a Bulgaria win in a game with goals.
Over 2.5 goals at 2.2 and both teams to score at 2.25 are the two prices with something behind them, while 1.5 for a Bulgaria win asks more than one home victory in five supports.
Context
Henn's published list is the only available guide to Estonia's selections for the two away games that open the campaign, and it pairs two 18-year-olds with a set of returning players the listing itself itemises. Because the same squad covers Iceland on 26 September and Bulgaria on 29 September, how that depth is spread across the two fixtures is the central selection question for Plovdiv. Baltic Football News says several regulars are absent but names none of them, so the size of the missing group, and whether it touches the defensive unit facing Bulgaria, stays unresolved.
- Jürgen Henn named Estonia's squad for the September and October Nations League matches.
- Sander Alamaa (Flora) and Maksimilian Skvortsov (FCI Levadia) are first-time call-ups who could make senior debuts.
- Baltic Football News reports Henn will be without several regulars, without naming them.
- Estonia open the window away to Iceland on 26 September, three days before the Bulgaria game.
The list covers four matches in eleven days, so the returning players named for it can be spread across the home double-header and the two away trips rather than being loaded into the Estonia game. Gruev carries most of the interest, and the Bulgarian account describing him says he had roughly five months out with a knee injury and has completed a single 85-minute under-21 match, which makes his readiness for competitive minutes the live question. The squad comes from a squad-tracking post rather than the Bulgarian federation, so individual inclusions read as reported.
- Bulgaria's squad for the UEFA Nations League fixtures includes first-time call-up Asen Chandarov.
- Nine players are listed as returning, among them Dimitar Mitov, Ivaylo Chochev, Kristiyan Stoyanov and Ilia Gruev.
- A Bulgarian account reports Gruev was sidelined about five months by a knee injury and has played one 85-minute under-21 match since returning.
- Bulgaria's window runs Luxembourg (H) on 26 September, Estonia (H) on 29 September, Iceland (A) on 3 October and Luxembourg (A) on 6 October.
Estonia play in Reykjavik on 26 September and then in Plovdiv on 29 September, while Bulgaria stay at home for both of their opening fixtures inside the same group. That is a preparation difference between two direct group rivals, and it lands on a squad already reported to be missing several regulars, which makes rotation for the second game plausible. No departure, arrival or training detail for the trip has been published, so the practical effect can only be inferred from the schedule rather than established.
- Estonia play Iceland at Laugardalsvollur in Reykjavik on 26 September 2026.
- Bulgaria v Estonia is listed at Hristo Botev Stadium in Plovdiv on 29 September, three days after Estonia's opener.
- Bulgaria's first two group fixtures are both at home, on 26 and 29 September.
Group C4 runs from 26 September to 6 October, so the Plovdiv game is the second of four matches in a compressed block for both sides rather than a standalone fixture. Bulgaria follow it with away trips to Iceland and Luxembourg, which is the kind of schedule that shapes how a four-match squad list is distributed across games. The group and fixture list are corroborated across a preview account, a squad post and two independent ticket listings, though no competition page was reachable to verify them directly.
- UEFA Nations League League C Group 4 contains Iceland, Bulgaria, Estonia and Luxembourg.
- Both sides played an opening group fixture on 26 September: Bulgaria v Luxembourg and Iceland v Estonia.
- Bulgaria's remaining window fixtures are Estonia (H) on 29 September, Iceland (A) on 3 October and Luxembourg (A) on 6 October.
Signal quality track record · Football
High Medium Low
Share of graded picks that landed, per signal quality.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 3
Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean
Yes
2.25fair 1.92
Market 44.4% · BetBugs 52%
+7.6ppedge
Bulgaria's defence has conceded almost every game, so one Estonia goal would be enough for both teams to score.
1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean
Over 0.5 goals in 1st half
1.40fair 1.37
Market 71.4% · BetBugs 73%
+1.6ppedge
Combined first-half scoring across both samples points to more than one goal on average, making a goalless opening period the less likely outcome.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean
Bulgaria
1.50fair 1.89
BetBugs 53% · Market 66.7%
−13.7ppshort
Bulgaria are the stronger side playing at home against an Estonia team with one away win in seven competitive trips, so they hold the clearest claim on the match.
First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip
Draw
2.10fair 2.38
BetBugs 42% · Market 47.6%
−5.6ppshort
Neither side has produced many first-half goals, and Estonia's away opening periods have been especially quiet.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result4 of 5 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Bulgaria are the stronger side playing at home against an Estonia team with one away win in seven competitive trips, so they hold the clearest claim on the match.
- Bulgaria's competitive record is 3W-1D-7L in 11 matches, scoring 1.55 and conceding 2.36 per game
- Estonia are 1W-1D-5L in seven away competitive matches, scoring 0.71 and conceding 2.29 per game
- Bulgaria at home are 1W-1D-3L with 1.0 scored and 2.6 conceded per home match
- Estonia's overall competitive record is 3W-2D-8L in 13 matches, with their two June wins both 1-0 at home
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBulgariaEstimated chance53%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Neither side has produced many first-half goals, and Estonia's away opening periods have been especially quiet.
- Bulgaria's home first halves average 1.0 goal for and 1.2 against
- Estonia's away first halves average 0.43 for and 0.29 against
- Estonia's overall first-half totals are 0.38 scored and 0.38 conceded per game
- Bulgaria scored no first-half goal in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score little after the break, particularly Estonia away from home, so a level second period is the most likely single result.
- Bulgaria's competitive second halves average 1.8 total goals; Estonia's average 1.85
- Bulgaria's home second halves total 1.4 goals per game
- Bulgaria have scored no second-half goals at home in five matches
- Estonia have scored 0.29 second-half goals per away competitive match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance39%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bulgaria are the stronger side playing at home against an Estonia team with one away win in seven competitive trips, so they hold the clearest claim on the match. With two low-scoring sides and Bulgaria's modest home record, a tight match that finishes level is a realistic middle outcome.
- Bulgaria's competitive record is 3W-1D-7L in 11 matches, scoring 1.55 and conceding 2.36 per game
- Estonia are 1W-1D-5L in seven away competitive matches, scoring 0.71 and conceding 2.29 per game
- Bulgaria have drawn 1 of 11 competitive matches and Estonia 2 of 13
- Bulgaria's home record of 1W-1D-3L includes one draw in five
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBulgaria or DrawEstimated chance80%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bulgaria start games with more first-half menace than Estonia, who rarely lead at the interval in away matches. Neither side has produced many first-half goals, and Estonia's away opening periods have been especially quiet.
- Bulgaria average 1.09 first-half goals per competitive match and 1.0 at home
- Estonia concede 0.29 first-half goals per away competitive match and score 0.43
- Bulgaria's home first halves average 1.0 goal for and 1.2 against
- Estonia's away first halves average 0.43 for and 0.29 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBulgaria or DrawEstimated chance82%
Goals1 of 6 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both defences concede regularly and the combined scoring rates put the expected total slightly above the 2.5 line.
- Bulgaria's competitive matches average 3.9 total goals (1.55 for, 2.36 against); Estonia's average 2.6
- Bulgaria's home matches average 3.6 total goals and Estonia's away matches 3.0
- Bulgaria have scored in 7 of 11 and conceded in 10 of 11 competitive matches
- Estonia's away games include a 1-4 defeat in Norway and a 0-2 loss in Rwanda
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Bulgaria's defence has conceded almost every game, so one Estonia goal would be enough for both teams to score.
- Bulgaria have conceded in 10 of 11 competitive matches and in all five home matches
- Both teams scored in 6 of Bulgaria's 11 and 6 of Estonia's 13 competitive matches
- Bulgaria have kept only 1 clean sheet in 11 competitive games
- Estonia have scored 5 goals across 7 away competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bulgaria's home attack is low volume at around one goal a game and they rarely manage two, so holding them to one or none is the likelier outcome.
- Bulgaria average 1.0 goals per home competitive match and 1.55 overall
- Bulgaria have scored 5 goals in 5 home competitive matches
- Bulgaria average 5.2 shots and 2.2 shots on target per home competitive game
- Estonia's away opponents average 23.7 shots but Estonia have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBulgaria under 1.5Estimated chance62%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bulgaria's defence has been breached in nearly every competitive match, which makes a clean sheet the less likely result.
- Bulgaria have no clean sheet in five home competitive matches and just one in eleven overall
- Bulgaria have conceded in 10 of their 11 competitive matches
- Bulgaria's home matches concede 2.6 goals per game
- Estonia have scored in 8 of their 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostEstonia to scoreEstimated chance67%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Combined first-half scoring across both samples points to more than one goal on average, making a goalless opening period the less likely outcome.
- Bulgaria's competitive first halves average 1.09 scored and 1.0 conceded; Estonia's average 0.38 and 0.38
- Bulgaria's home first halves average 1.0 and 1.2; Estonia's away first halves 0.43 and 0.29
- Bulgaria scored a first-half goal in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Estonia's most recent away match had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two second-half samples average close to 1.8 goals, placing the 1.5 line almost level.
- Bulgaria's competitive second halves average 0.45 scored and 1.36 conceded, a total of 1.8
- Estonia's average 0.38 scored and 1.46 conceded, a total of 1.85
- Bulgaria's home second halves total 1.4 goals per game
- Estonia's away second halves total 2.29 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance51%
Match stats2 of 3 landed
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Estonia's away games generate a heavy opponent corner count while Bulgaria's home games have been low on corners, leaving the total near the line.
- Estonia's away competitive matches average 2.33 corners for them and 9.33 for opponents (11.7 total)
- Bulgaria's home matches average 1.8 corners for them and 4.8 for opponents (6.6 total)
- Bulgaria's overall corner numbers are 2.33 for and 5.89 against per game
- Estonia's overall corner numbers are 2.4 for and 7.5 against per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance54%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams allow their opponents a heavy volume of shots, so a match total well into the teens is the likely pattern.
- Bulgaria's competitive matches average 5.6 shots for them and 17.4 for opponents
- Estonia's competitive matches average 7.1 shots for them and 21.7 for opponents
- Estonia's away matches average 6.17 shots for them and 23.7 for opponents
- Bulgaria's home matches average 5.2 shots for them and 15.2 for opponents
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 12.5Estimated chance84%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Opponents put more than six shots on target per game against both teams, so the match total should clear four or five.
- Bulgaria's competitive matches average 1.9 shots on target for them and 6.1 against (8.0 total)
- Estonia's average 2.5 for and 7.5 against (10.0 total)
- Estonia's away matches average 2.67 for them and 8.67 for opponents
- Bulgaria's home matches average 2.2 for them and 5.6 for opponents
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance80%
The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees
League Table
UEFA Nations League 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bulgaria Promotion Playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 |
Bulgaria leads the leagueEstonia leads the league
Recent Form
Bulgaria
L0-1MontenegroFRI
W1-0IndonesiaFIF
W10-2Solomon IslandsFIF
W2-1GeorgiaWOR
L0-2TürkiyeWOR
L0-4SpainWOR
L1-6TürkiyeWOR
L0-3GeorgiaWOR
L0-3SpainWOR
L0-4GreeceFRI
D2-2CyprusFRI
L1-2Rep. Of IrelandUEF
L1-2Rep. Of IrelandUEF
D1-1BelarusUEF
Estonia
W1-0LithuaniaBAL
W1-0Faroe IslandsBAL
L0-2RwandaFIF
W4-2CyprusFRI
L1-4NorwayWOR
D1-1MoldovaWOR
L1-3ItalyWOR
D0-0AndorraFRI
L0-5ItalyWOR
L0-1NorwayWOR
L1-3IsraelWOR
W3-2MoldovaWOR
L1-2IsraelWOR
L0-1SlovakiaUEF
D0-0AzerbaijanUEF
Squad & Injuries
Bulgaria
31 availableAttackers7
Midfielders9
Defenders11
Goalkeeper4
Estonia
27 availableAttackers7
Midfielders9
Defenders8
Goalkeeper3