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Predictions graded

Georgia0Ukraine0

HT 0–0Mon 28 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1017%

Edges0–40%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 14–7On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 4–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 08:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Georgia and Ukraine meet in Tbilisi on matchday two of a compressed Nations League block, with both squads still settling.

The recent evidence points to goals: three or more is the likelier outcome, and both teams scoring is close behind. Over 2.5 goals at 2.0, both teams to score at 1.8 and a goal in the first half at 1.35 all carry value; the 8.5 corners line at 1.53 does not.

Context

Maldera has run the side since May 2026, so this is his first Nations League campaign and the first time a foreign coach has taken Ukraine into the competition. The squad he named on 16 September pairs a Dynamo Kyiv core with a ten-man reserve list, which makes the eleven that starts in Tbilisi harder to call than for a settled team. Ukraine also play three days after opening in Budapest, a turnaround that usually pulls rotation decisions forward. The uncertainty is about personnel continuity and load management rather than a demonstrated tactical change.
- Andrea Maldera has been Ukraine's head coach since May 2026 and is the first foreigner to hold the position in the country's history (Italian Embassy in Ukraine, 11 September 2026).
- Maldera announced the Nations League squad on 16 September, with 30 players in the main list and a further 10 on reserve (XSPORT.ua, 16 September 2026).
- Dynamo Kyiv confirmed five of their players were called up by Maldera, including defender Taras Mykhavko and midfielders Volodymyr Brazhko and Mykola Shaparenko (16 September 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Azarovi was included on 17 September and gone the following day, so Georgia enter this window without an established Shakhtar Donetsk option on the left of defence and with a teenager promoted from the Under-21s. Across four matches in ten days that raises the chance Willy Sagnol reshapes or rotates the left flank, including against Ukraine. The replacement is an 18-year-old without senior caps, so this may prove a depth adjustment rather than a like-for-like swap. Sagnol has had a full camp to prepare around the change, which limits how disruptive it becomes.
- Saba Kharebashvili (Başakşehir) replaced Irakli Azarovi (Shakhtar Donetsk), who suffered an injury on 17 September in a cup fixture (GeorgianFooty, 18 September 2026).
- Kharebashvili, an 18-year-old left-back, joined the senior squad instead of the Under-21 team after the change (18 September 2026).
- Shakhtar confirmed Azarov had been called up by Georgia for the same window on 17 September (FC Shakhtar English, 17 September 2026).
- I. Azarovi started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:45 · Europe/Bucharest
This is Division B Group 2, where Georgia and Ukraine are joined by Hungary and Northern Ireland. Both open on 25 September, Georgia at home to Northern Ireland and Ukraine away to Hungary, so the Tbilisi meeting is Georgia's second match in four days and Ukraine's second away trip in the same spell. The group continues on 2 and 5 October, which means points taken here shape a four-team race rather than a one-off result. The available match data establishes no previous competitive meeting between the sides, so there is no recent head-to-head pattern to lean on.
- Ukraine compete in Division B, where their group opponents are Hungary, Georgia and Northern Ireland (XSPORT.ua, 22 September 2026).
- Hungary's confirmed schedule lists Ukraine at home on 25 September, then Northern Ireland away, Georgia at home on 2 October and Ukraine at a neutral venue on 5 October (Passport Soccer, 19 September 2026).
- Georgia's window is Northern Ireland and Ukraine at home, then Hungary and Northern Ireland away (FC Shakhtar English, 17 September 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Ukraine's sequence is the harsher of the two, running Budapest, Tbilisi and two further fixtures inside roughly 11 days, while Georgia's four matches are split two home and two away. That structure puts workload, travel and rotation in play for a game neither side can treat in isolation, because the group continues on 2 and 5 October. The squads named in mid-September are large - 30 plus reserves for Ukraine, 27 for Georgia - which is one reason rotation is plausible rather than certain. Fatigue should affect both camps, so it does not by itself separate them.
- Georgia's window: Northern Ireland on 25 September and 5 October, Ukraine on 28 September and Hungary on 2 October (FC Shakhtar English, 17 September 2026).
- Ukrainian media describe Ukraine's block as four Nations League matches in 11 days (Tribuna, 23 September 2026).
- Northern Ireland's schedule confirms Georgia v NI on 25 September and NI v Hungary on 28 September, the same matchday as Georgia v Ukraine (Mountainview Tavern, 21 September 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:45 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Georgia's home scoring and Ukraine's leaky away defence give them a narrow edge, but recent form is inconsistent.
- Georgia average 2.75 goals scored per home competitive match.
- Ukraine concede 2.4 goals per away competitive match.
- Georgia's home competitive record is 2 wins, 2 losses; Ukraine's away record is 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
- The last Tbilisi meeting ended 1-1; Ukraine won the other meeting 1-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGeorgiaEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A half-time draw is the most likely single outcome because both teams have mixed first-half records.
- Georgia's last six matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Ukraine's last six matches had three first-half goals in total.
- Georgia home first-half record: 1.75 scored, 1.25 conceded.
- Ukraine away first-half record: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Georgia's second-half scoring at home and Ukraine's poor away second-half defence make a home half win likely.
- Georgia average 1.0 second-half goals at home.
- Ukraine concede 2.2 second-half goals away.
- Georgia overall average 0.89 second-half goals scored.
- Ukraine overall average 1.4 second-half goals conceded.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGeorgiaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Georgia's home scoring and Ukraine's leaky away defence give them a narrow edge, but recent form is inconsistent. Ukraine's stronger overall record and recent wins give them a solid chance, but they concede often away from home.
- Georgia average 2.75 goals scored per home competitive match.
- Ukraine concede 2.4 goals per away competitive match.
- Ukraine have 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses in 10 competitive matches.
- Ukraine won 1-0 in the previous meeting in Ukraine.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGeorgia or UkraineEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Georgia's strong home first-half scoring gives them a chance to lead at the break, but Ukraine start away games solidly. A half-time draw is the most likely single outcome because both teams have mixed first-half records.
- Georgia average 1.75 first-half goals at home.
- Ukraine concede 0.2 first-half goals away.
- Georgia's last six matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Ukraine's last six matches had three first-half goals in total.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGeorgia or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both teams' averages and recent scorelines point to at least three goals in this match.
- Georgia home matches average 4.75 total goals.
- Ukraine away matches average 4.0 total goals.
- Five of Georgia's last six competitive matches went over 2.5 goals.
- Four of Ukraine's last six competitive matches went over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both teams have scored in the majority of recent matches, and both defences have conceded regularly.
- Georgia have scored in 7 of 9 competitive matches; Ukraine in 7 of 10.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Ukraine's 5 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Georgia's 4 home matches.
- Georgia's last six competitive matches averaged 3.67 total goals.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Georgia's home scoring rate and Ukraine's away defensive record make two or more home goals likely.
- Georgia average 2.75 goals scored per home competitive match.
- Ukraine concede 2.4 goals per away competitive match.
- Georgia scored 3 against Bulgaria and 2 against Türkiye in home matches.
- Georgia failed to score in two of their last four home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGeorgia over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
The first half is very likely to produce at least one goal given Georgia's frequent early scoring and Ukraine's occasional first-half goals.
- Georgia's last six competitive matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Georgia overall first-half goals average 2.44 combined.
- Ukraine overall first-half goals average 1.1 combined.
- Three of Ukraine's last six matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly produce second-half goals, making over 1.5 the more likely outcome.
- Georgia home second-half total goals average 1.75.
- Ukraine away second-half total goals average 2.8.
- Five of Ukraine's last six matches had at least two second-half goals.
- All six of Georgia's last six matches had at least one second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced around nine corners on average, making over 8.5 slightly more likely.
- Georgia overall matches average 9.22 total corners.
- Ukraine overall matches average 9.0 total corners.
- Georgia's last six matches averaged 8.33 total corners.
- Ukraine's last six matches averaged 9.33 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ukraine's recent matches have produced more shots on target, pushing the combined average just above the line.
- Georgia overall matches average 8.33 total shots on target.
- Ukraine overall matches average 9.1 total shots on target.
- Georgia's last six matches averaged 7.67 total shots on target.
- Ukraine's last six matches averaged 9.0 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

D1-1GeorgiavUkraineNov 16, 2024UEF

L1-0UkrainevGeorgiaOct 11, 2024UEF

1.5 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Georgia Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
2	Ukraine Promotion Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Georgia leads the leagueUkraine leads the leagueGeorgia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Georgia

W2-0BahrainJun 5FRI

D1-1RomaniaJun 2FRI

W2-0LithuaniaMar 29FRI

D2-2IsraelMar 26FRI

L1-2BulgariaNov 18WOR

L0-4SpainNov 15WOR

L1-4TürkiyeOct 14WOR

L0-2SpainOct 11WOR

W3-0BulgariaSep 7WOR

L2-3TürkiyeSep 4WOR

D1-1Cape Verde IslandsJun 8FRI

W1-0Faroe IslandsJun 5FRI

W6-1ArmeniaMar 23UEF

W3-0ArmeniaMar 20UEF

L1-2CzechiaNov 19UEF

Ukraine

L1-2DenmarkJun 7FRI

W2-0PolandMay 31FRI

W1-0AlbaniaMar 31FRI

L1-3SwedenMar 26WOR

W2-0IcelandNov 16WOR

L0-4FranceNov 13WOR

W2-1AzerbaijanOct 13WOR

W5-3IcelandOct 10WOR

D1-1AzerbaijanSep 9WOR

L0-2FranceSep 5WOR

W2-1New ZealandJun 10FRI

L2-4CanadaJun 7FRI

L0-3BelgiumMar 23UEF

W3-1BelgiumMar 20UEF

W2-1AlbaniaNov 19UEF

Squad & Injuries

Georgia

30 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Ukraine

37 available

Attackers10

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 8.5

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals0 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Georgia

Ukraine

Squad & Injuries

Georgia

Ukraine