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Predictions graded

Universidad de Chile1Everton Vina del Mar1

HT 1–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 20:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 01:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Universidad de Chile take a 1-0 lead into a Copa Chile round-of-16 tie that has to be finished in one afternoon at the Estadio Nacional.

They carry the better home record, but five absences and Everton's habit of scoring in every away match in this window keep it open, and 1.75 for the hosts to win asks too much. Both teams to score at 1.8, Everton to draw or win at 2 and Everton to win at 4 hold up.

Context

The first leg at the Sausalito was halted in the 83rd minute with Universidad de Chile leading 1-0 through Juan Martín Lucero, and the leftover minutes will now be played at the Estadio Nacional before the return leg. That hands the completion of a match Everton hosted to the ground of the opponent that was leading it, and puts both squads through two spells of football in one afternoon. The 14:45 and 17:30 local starts leave limited recovery time between the matches, though how each coach manages substitutions across the two spells is not yet known.
- The first leg at the Estadio Sausalito was suspended in the 83rd minute with Universidad de Chile leading 1-0.
- The remaining minutes are set to resume at 14:45 at the Estadio Nacional, with the return leg at 17:30 the same day at the same venue.
- The winner of the tie advances to the Copa Chile quarter-finals.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 01:23 · Europe/BucharestRound-of-16 first leg suspended in the 83rd minutewww.encancha.cl · 24 Sep 2026
The Metropolitan Presidential Delegation reclassified the return leg after the incidents in Viña del Mar, barring the 2,866 supporters linked to the first leg from entering the Estadio Nacional. That takes the travelling support out of a stadium where Universidad de Chile would normally expect a large home crowd, changing the atmosphere for the second match of the day. Coverage diverged on the final outcome, with some accounts describing the match as closed to the public and others reporting only limited attendance, so the exact size of the permitted crowd is not settled.
- Entry to the Estadio Nacional was barred for 2,866 supporters who had attended the first leg in Viña del Mar.
- The mayor of Ñuñoa ruled out a return leg with the public at the Estadio Nacional.
- Coverage of the return leg ranged from the match being played without spectators to limited attendance.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 01:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Everton asked for the round-of-16 tie to be declared over rather than completed, with the club arguing that it should advance to the quarter-finals and that the Nacional lacked the conditions to play. The request followed an abandonment at the Sausalito in which Everton trailed 1-0 with eight minutes plus stoppage left. The federation went the other way and scheduled both matches, so Everton will complete a tie the club had publicly argued should be over; whether that colours preparation is not established.
- Everton's position after the Sausalito abandonment was that the tie should be closed and the club advanced to the quarter-finals.
- The club's stated case was that the return leg at the Nacional lacked the conditions to be played.
- A harsher punishment for the incidents was sought to prevent further stadium violence.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 01:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Marcelo Morales and Agustín Arce were with the senior national team for its September tour and Bianneider Tamayo with Venezuela, while Lucas Barrera and Igor Lichnovsky were unavailable through injury when the first leg was played. With the tie squeezed into a single afternoon, that thinning of the squad is felt twice, in the leftover minutes and again in the return leg. The national-team players could return as the tour finishes, so the list available for the second match is less certain than the list that missed the first.
- Marcelo Morales and Agustín Arce were away with Chile and Bianneider Tamayo with Venezuela for the first leg.
- Lucas Barrera and Igor Lichnovsky were unavailable through injury for the first leg.
- The three called-up players were listed as missing the Copa Chile tie on 24 and 27 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 01:23 · Europe/BucharestAbsences for the first legwww.tvn.cl · 24 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The hosts have the better overall and home record and carry a 1-0 lead into the tie, so they hold the largest share of the winner market.
- Universidad de Chile: 11 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats in their last 15 competitive matches, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.07 per game
- Home split: 6 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats from 8, with 2.13 scored and 0.88 conceded per game
- Everton have scored in all 7 away matches tracked in this window, averaging 2.14 goals
- Universidad de Chile are missing three internationals and two injured defenders, with two matches packed into one afternoon
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUniversidad de ChileEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
First halves in these two teams' matches are tight, so the interval score is most often level.
- Universidad de Chile's last three home matches were 0-0, 1-1 and 2-0 at half-time
- Combined first-half goals in these splits average about 1.4 per match
- Universidad de Chile score 0.87 first-half goals at home, Everton 1.0 away
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The hosts do most of their scoring after the break at home, giving them the largest share of the second-half market.
- Universidad de Chile score 1.25 second-half goals at home and concede 0.75
- Everton score 1.14 and concede 0.57 after the break away
- Universidad de Chile scored 3 second-half goals in a 4-2 home win over Coquimbo Unido
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostUniversidad de ChileEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts have the better overall and home record and carry a 1-0 lead into the tie, so they hold the largest share of the winner market. Everton's away record is strong and they must chase the tie, while the hosts are short of five players.
- Universidad de Chile: 11 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats in their last 15 competitive matches, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.07 per game
- Home split: 6 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats from 8, with 2.13 scored and 0.88 conceded per game
- Everton are 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat in 7 away matches, scoring 2.14 and conceding 1.0 per game
- Recent form: wins over Nublense, Limache and Universidad de Concepcion, plus a 4-1 win at Huachipato
BetBugs · Double ChancelostUniversidad de Chile or Everton Vina del MarEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
The hosts are very hard to score against before the break at home, which gives them the best single share of the first-half market. First halves in these two teams' matches are tight, so the interval score is most often level.
- Universidad de Chile concede 0.13 first-half goals per home match and score 0.88
- Everton concede 0.43 first-half goals per away match and score 1.0
- Universidad de Chile's last three home matches were 0-0, 1-1 and 2-0 at half-time
- Combined first-half goals in these splits average about 1.4 per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonUniversidad de Chile or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both teams score close to two goals a game and Everton's need to chase the tie points to an open match.
- Universidad de Chile average 2.2 goals scored and 1.07 conceded; Everton average 1.93 and 1.4
- Universidad de Chile's home matches average 3.0 total goals and Everton's away matches 3.14
- Everton must make up ground in the tie, which should keep the game open
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both sides score regularly in their relevant venue splits, so each finding the net is the more likely outcome.
- Universidad de Chile have scored in 14 of 15 matches overall and 7 of 8 at home
- Everton have scored in all 7 away matches and in 5 of their last 6 overall
- Both teams scored in 5 of Universidad de Chile's last 6 and 4 of Everton's last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Everton have found the net in every away match in the sample, which makes a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Everton have scored in all 7 away matches, averaging 2.14 goals
- Universidad de Chile conceded in 5 of their 8 home matches
- Everton scored 4 at Huachipato and 3 at Nublense and Limache
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEverton Vina del Mar to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts score in nearly every match and Everton's away clean sheets are rare.
- Universidad de Chile scored in 14 of 15 matches and 7 of 8 at home
- Everton have one away clean sheet in seven matches
- Universidad de Chile scored 2 or more in 5 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonUniversidad de Chile to scoreEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams score before half-time on most matchdays, so at least one goal in the opening period is the more likely outcome.
- Universidad de Chile average 0.87 first-half goals and Everton 0.93 overall
- Everton have scored before half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Two of Universidad de Chile's last three home games were goalless at the break
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams do more of their scoring after the break, so two or more second-half goals is slightly favoured.
- Universidad de Chile score 1.25 second-half goals at home, Everton 1.14 away
- Universidad de Chile's home games produce 2.0 second-half goals on average
- Everton's away matches produce 1.71 second-half goals on average
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Corner totals in both teams' recent matches usually sit well below this line.
- Universidad de Chile home matches average 6.4 own corners and 3.8 for opponents
- Everton's away corner sample is thin: 5.25 own and 4.5 for opponents
- Recent match corner totals: Universidad de Chile 11, 9, 15, 10, 9, 9 and Everton 6, 11, 4, 12, 10
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 14.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot totals in both teams' matches sit comfortably below this line.
- Universidad de Chile home matches average 20.8 shots for and 9.0 against (5 matches)
- Everton away matches average 18.25 shots for and 9.75 against (4 matches)
- Recent match shot totals: Universidad de Chile 26, 33, 24, 30, 33, 28 and Everton 29, 23, 31, 28, 30
BetBugs · Shots Over/Undernot gradableUnder 37.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent matches for both teams fell below this line, with one exception each.
- Universidad de Chile average 7.2 shots on target, Everton 7.75, with opponents on 3.67 and 2.75
- Home split: Universidad de Chile 8.8 on target, opponents 3.2; Everton away 8.0 and 2.5
- Recent on-target totals: Universidad de Chile 9, 16, 8, 7, 12, 12 and Everton 12, 5, 8, 10, 14
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableUnder 14.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages for both teams sit above this line, though two recent matches stayed well below it.
- Universidad de Chile matches average 4.4 yellows combined (1.56 their own, 2.89 for opponents)
- Everton matches average 5.4 yellows combined (1.88 their own, 3.5 for opponents)
- Recent card totals include 8, 8, 6, 7 and 6, with two quiet matches of 2
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-1Everton de VinavUniversidad de ChileSep 24, 2026COP

D0-0Everton de VinavUniversidad de ChileApr 18, 2026PRI

W2-0Universidad de ChilevEverton de VinaNov 5, 2025PRI

L2-0Everton de VinavUniversidad de ChileMar 27, 2025PRI

D1-1Universidad de ChilevEverton de VinaNov 10, 2024PRI

Universidad de Chile: 3 clean sheetsEverton Vina del Mar: 2 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Universidad de Chile

W3-0D. La SerenaSep 13PRI

W4-2Coquimbo UnidoSep 6PRI

L1-2Universidad de ConcepcionAug 30PRI

L1-2Colo ColoAug 23PRI

W3-1Deportes LimacheAug 15PRI

W2-1PalestinoAug 10PRI

W1-0Union San FelipeAug 5COP

W2-0HuachipatoAug 2PRI

W2-1A. ItalianoJul 26PRI

W3-2Santiago WanderersJul 5COP

L0-1Union La CaleraJul 2COP

W2-0Union San FelipeJun 28COP

D3-3Union La CaleraJun 24COP

W4-1Santiago WanderersJun 21COP

W2-0O'HigginsJun 19PRI

Everton Vina del Mar

W3-1NublenseSep 12PRI

L0-1U. CatolicaSep 5PRI

W3-0Deportes LimacheAug 29PRI

W3-1Universidad de ConcepcionAug 24PRI

D1-1A. ItalianoAug 16PRI

W4-1HuachipatoAug 8PRI

L3-4Colo ColoAug 1PRI

D1-1Union La CaleraJul 27PRI

W1-0Deportes CopiapoJul 11COP

D2-2San LuisJul 4COP

L1-2U. CatolicaJul 1COP

W3-0Deportes CopiapoJun 26COP

L1-3U. CatolicaJun 24COP

D2-2San LuisJun 20COP

L1-2PalestinoJun 13PRI

Squad & Injuries

Universidad de Chile

31 available

Attackers10

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Everton Vina del Mar

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Draw or Everton Vina del Mar

Everton Vina del Mar

Universidad de Chile or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Draw

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Universidad de Chile

Everton Vina del Mar

Squad & Injuries

Universidad de Chile

Everton Vina del Mar