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Predictions graded

Sint Maarten0Belize1

HT 0–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 33%–67%ShotsShots 5–14On targetOn target 0–5CornersCorners 5–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 00:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Sint Maarten host Belize at FFB Stadium to open League B Group D.

Sint Maarten won their only recent meeting 3-2 in March and have three wins and two draws in their last six tracked matches, so they look the likelier winners, though Belize scored six away at St. Kitts and Nevis in November. Sint Maarten to win at 3.1 and Sint Maarten to win or draw at 1.67 are the prices offering something; over 2.5 goals at 1.67 offers no clear advantage.

Context

A direct Gold Cup place turns a four-team group into something close to a knockout race, and both sides open it against one of the two rivals they must finish above. The structure also concentrates importance on September and October: with only six matches each, dropped points at home are the hardest to recover. The Gold Cup pathway comes from preview coverage of the new format rather than from a competition document available here, so the precise reward for topping the group should be read as likely rather than settled.
- The winner of the 2026-27 League B group takes a direct Gold Cup place.
- Belize are the only Central American team in League B, grouped with French Guiana, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Sint Maarten.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Five goals in March is the only recent evidence of how these two squads match up, and it came from a game with no competitive stakes attached. Familiarity cuts both ways here, because Belize have a reference point for Sint Maarten's attacking players and Sint Maarten know they can win in Belize. As a friendly the result carries no ranking or tournament weight, and neither side's March selection is a reliable guide to who plays in the opener.
- Sint Maarten won 3-2 away to Belize on 27 March 2026 in the most recent meeting between the sides.
- That fixture was a non-FIFA friendly, played outside the Nations League.
- The stored match record shows the game level at 1-1 at half-time before Sint Maarten edged it.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 23:58 · Europe/BucharestRecord of the 27 March 2026 meetingwww.bbc.com · 27 Mar 2026
A small federation assembling players across Europe and the Caribbean has to build combinations inside a single window, and this one runs to four matches in a fortnight. That makes the opener a test of organisation as much as personnel, particularly against a Belize squad that trains and plays together domestically. The call-ups establish who is in the group rather than who starts against Belize, and the shape of the window squad has yet to be tested in a competitive match.
- Sint Maarten's squad for the window's four Nations League matches includes ASWH defender Ronan Olivacce and BVV Barendrecht under-23 player Nathaniël Krabbendam.
- Attacker Len Bleeker is with the group for the same four fixtures.
- New additions include Kars Kerssies, Jeffterick Martina and Khalid Tavernier, while Diario Forsythe, Stanlei Ferdinand and Roy Gerritsen return.
- Most of Sint Maarten's selection plays club football in the Netherlands.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest
A squad drawn overwhelmingly from the Belizean league spends far more time together than most Caribbean selections in this competition, which matters in a window containing four matches. Continuity also removes the club-release and travel complications that affect opponents assembling players from Europe. The list says nothing about which of the returning players starts in the opener, and the two overseas-based midfielders have to be folded back into a group that trains together domestically.
- Belize's squad for the window names one newcomer, Keydenshaay Bowen of Progresso.
- Twelve players return to the squad, several of them last called up in 2024.
- Only two squad members play club football outside Belize: Ávila at Tepatitlán in Mexico and Meza at Mount Pleasant in Jamaica.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.10
The read
Sint Maarten have the better away record and won the last meeting, so they are slightly stronger.
- Sint Maarten won the most recent meeting 3-2 in Belize on 27 March 2026.
- Sint Maarten away record: 5W 2D 3L in 10 matches, 1.1 goals for and 1.7 against per game.
- Belize home record: 3W 0D 3L in 6 matches, 1.33 goals for and 2.17 against per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSint MaartenEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams score few first-half goals, so a level first half is the most likely outcome.
- Sint Maarten average 0.4 first-half goals and concede 0.93 per game.
- Belize average 0.8 first-half goals and concede 0.8 per game.
- Three of Sint Maarten's last six matches were goalless at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sint Maarten have shown they can score late and won the second half in the last meeting.
- Sint Maarten average 0.8 second-half goals for and 1.2 against.
- Belize average 0.87 second-half goals for and 1.2 against.
- Sint Maarten scored twice in the second half of the last meeting.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSint MaartenEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sint Maarten have the better away record and won the last meeting, so they are slightly stronger. Belize have a higher overall scoring rate and can exploit a Sint Maarten defense that concedes frequently.
- Sint Maarten won the most recent meeting 3-2 in Belize on 27 March 2026.
- Sint Maarten away record: 5W 2D 3L in 10 matches, 1.1 goals for and 1.7 against per game.
- Belize average 1.67 goals per game overall and 1.89 away from home.
- Belize scored 6 in a recent away win over St. Kitts and Nevis.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSint Maarten or BelizeEstimated chance77%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams concede regularly, pointing to a high-scoring game.
- Sint Maarten's matches average 3.33 total goals (1.2 for, 2.13 against).
- Belize's matches average 3.67 total goals (1.67 for, 2.0 against).
- The last meeting produced 5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams score and concede frequently, so both finding the net is plausible.
- Sint Maarten scored in 9 of 15 matches; Belize scored in 12 of 15.
- Sint Maarten conceded in 10 of 15; Belize conceded in 10 of 15.
- The last meeting saw both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams usually produce at least one first-half goal.
- Sint Maarten's first halves average 1.33 total goals; Belize's average 1.6.
- Only 3 of Sint Maarten's last 6 matches had a goalless first half.
- Belize scored first-half goals in three of their last six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open, so over 1.5 goals is likely.
- Sint Maarten's second halves average 2.0 total goals; Belize's average 2.07.
- Both teams score and concede more after half-time.
- The last meeting had three second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Belize's home games produce plenty of corners, pushing the total over 7.5.
- Belize home matches average 10.5 total corners (6.0 for, 4.5 against).
- Sint Maarten away matches average 6.84 total corners (2.67 for, 4.17 against).
- Combined expected corners around 8.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The venue-specific numbers sit just under the line, so under 23.5 is slightly favored.
- Sint Maarten away matches average 22.2 total shots.
- Belize home matches average 23.25 total shots.
- Sint Maarten's overall matches average 25.0 total shots, but away it drops.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 23.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Venue-specific numbers suggest fewer than 9.5 shots on target.
- Sint Maarten away matches average 8.2 total shots on target (3.4 for, 4.8 against).
- Belize home matches average 8.5 total shots on target (5.25 for, 3.25 against).
- Both venue-specific averages are below 9.5.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W2-3BelizevSint MaartenMar 27, 2026CON

5 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Sint Maarten

D0-0DominicaMar 30CON

W3-2BelizeMar 27CON

W3-2DominicaNov 15CON

D0-0St. Kitts and NevisNov 12CON

W1-0ArubaNov 18CON

L0-8HaitiNov 15CON

L1-2Puerto RicoOct 14CON

W3-2Puerto RicoOct 11CON

L0-6HaitiSep 9CON

W2-0ArubaSep 6CON

W2-1St. LuciaNov 19CON

L0-2GuadeloupeNov 16CON

W1-0St. Kitts and NevisOct 15CON

L2-3St. Kitts and NevisOct 12CON

L0-4GuadeloupeSep 10CON

Belize

L1-3GuyanaMar 30CON

L2-3Sint MaartenMar 27CON

W6-2St. Kitts and NevisNov 18CON

W1-0Saint MartinNov 15CON

L0-2PanamaJun 8WOR

L0-1MontserratJun 4WOR

L1-6Costa RicaMar 26CON

L0-7Costa RicaMar 22CON

D2-2French GuyanaNov 19CON

W2-1French GuyanaNov 15CON

W3-0Turks and Caicos IslandsOct 16CON

W1-0AnguillaOct 10CON

W1-0AnguillaSep 10CON

W4-0Turks and Caicos IslandsSep 7CON

L1-3GuyanaJun 11WOR

Squad & Injuries

Sint Maarten

21 available

Attackers7

Midfielders4

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Belize

23 available

Attackers4

Midfielders11

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sint Maarten

Sint Maarten or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Draw

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Sint Maarten

Belize

Squad & Injuries

Sint Maarten

Belize