Coban Imperial3Aurora FC Guatemala2

HT 1–1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Edges0–30%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 06:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Cobán Imperial's attempt to climb off the bottom meets Aurora's record of six defeats in six away matches.

The likeliest outcome is a Cobán win or draw in a low-scoring game, but the 1.62 for a home win asks more than a side without a victory in six can be trusted to deliver. Only Aurora to win at 4.75 (+3.9 points) offers an edge, with the caveat that they have scored two or more in just one of their last six.

Context

Aurora defended for the final hour of their previous match after a 35th-minute red card and still won 1-0, so the squad has recent experience of a man-down game. The dismissal is the availability concern here: a Liga Nacional sending-off normally carries at least a one-match ban, which points to a forced change for the trip to Cobán Imperial. The account of the red card comes from a single Liga Nacional reporter, and no confirmed lineup has been published for this fixture. Treat the expected ban as likely rather than certain.
- Aurora FC beat Marquense 1-0 in Jornada 10 on 19 Sep 2026, playing from the 35th minute with ten men after a red card.
- The 1-0 win was Aurora's first in four Jornada outings, ending a run of three matches without a victory.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 06:56 · Europe/Bucharest
Aurora's four league wins in the window all came in their nine home matches, so the road split is where their season has gone wrong.
Aurora travel after a 1-0 home win over Marquense on 19 September, but every away match in this window has ended in defeat, at 0.83 scored and 2.5 conceded per game. The opening is that Cobán concede 1.33 per home match; the risk is that Aurora have not yet shown they can take anything on the road.
- Aurora away, 11 Apr – 13 Sep 2026: 6 matches, 0 wins, 0 draws, 6 defeats, 0.83 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per match.
Cobán Imperial go into the final match of Jornada 11 at the bottom of the Liga Nacional, so hosting Aurora carries table pressure beyond an ordinary home fixture. Aurora arrive off a 1-0 win over Marquense and sit clear of the basement, making this a meeting between the division's weakest side and a mid-table visitor. That framing shapes how both coaches may approach the game, but it rests on the broadcaster's preview and recent results rather than any confirmed selection or tactical change. Treat it as context for the stakes, not as a playing edge.
- Fox Deportes Guatemala preview, 26 Sep 2026: Cobán Imperial 'will look to climb out of the bottom of the table' when they host Aurora FC in Jornada 11.
- Jornada 10 results, 21 Sep 2026: Aurora FC 1-0 Marquense and San Pedro 1-1 Cobán Imperial.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 06:56 · Europe/Bucharest
The 1-1 draw between San Pedro and Cobán Imperial on 20 September ended with a brawl and a touchline dismissal, and the Liga Nacional's disciplinary body has now banned San Pedro coach Edwin Vázquez for six months with a Q10,000 fine. Two further figures were sanctioned, underlining how heated Cobán's most recent outing became. The bans fall on San Pedro rather than on either club in this fixture, so they carry no direct selection effect at Cobán. The resolution can still be appealed.
- The Liga Nacional disciplinary body banned San Pedro coach Edwin Vázquez for six months and fined him Q10,000 after the incident with Cobán Imperial's Kenneth Valdez on 20 Sep 2026.
- Two further figures were sanctioned: Germán Águila (2 matches, Q500) and César Estuardo Valencia (1 match, Q5,000).
- The 1-1 draw at San Pedro was stopped by a brawl after the San Pedro coach was sent off at the 63rd minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 06:56 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.80fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 55.6%

−1.6ppshort

The head-to-head record and the number of blanks from both attacks favour one side not scoring.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cobán's home form is respectable while Aurora have lost all six away matches in this window, giving the home team the better case.
- Cobán at home: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats in 6, scoring 1.67 and conceding 1.33 per match
- Aurora away: 0 wins, 0 draws, 6 defeats, scoring 0.83 and conceding 2.5 per match
- Aurora overall 4 wins, 1 draw, 10 defeats, conceding 1.67 per match
- The home side has not lost any of the last five head-to-head meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCoban ImperialEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Most recent matches involving these sides have been level or goalless at the break.
- Cobán's home first-half numbers are 0.67 scored and 0.33 conceded
- Aurora's away first-half numbers are 0.17 scored and 1.0 conceded
- 3 of Cobán's last 6 matches had no first-half goal
- Aurora's overall first-half record is 0.47 for and 0.47 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been mixed rather than decisively one-sided for either team.
- Second halves in Cobán's last 6 produced 2, 3, 0, 1, 2 and 1 goals
- Cobán's overall second-half numbers are 0.67 for and 1.07 against
- Aurora's overall second-half numbers are 0.53 for and 1.2 against
- Aurora's away second halves average 2.17 goals in total
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cobán's home form is respectable while Aurora have lost all six away matches in this window, giving the home team the better case. Both attacks are low-output and several recent Cobán matches have finished level.
- Cobán at home: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats in 6, scoring 1.67 and conceding 1.33 per match
- Aurora away: 0 wins, 0 draws, 6 defeats, scoring 0.83 and conceding 2.5 per match
- Cobán have drawn 3 of their last 6 and 4 of 15 overall
- Two of the last five head-to-heads ended level
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCoban Imperial or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aurora's away first halves have been their weakest spell, conceding about a goal a game. Most recent matches involving these sides have been level or goalless at the break.
- Aurora concede 1.0 first-half goal per away match
- Cobán score 0.67 first-half goals per home match
- Cobán's home first-half numbers are 0.67 scored and 0.33 conceded
- Aurora's away first-half numbers are 0.17 scored and 1.0 conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCoban Imperial or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both attacks are low-output and recent meetings between these sides have been tight and low-scoring.
- Last five head-to-heads produced 0, 1, 2, 2 and 2 goals
- Cobán score 1.07 per match overall, Aurora 1.0
- Cobán's last 6 matches produced 6 goals for them and 9 against
- Aurora have scored two or more in only 1 of their last 6
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The head-to-head record and the number of blanks from both attacks favour one side not scoring.
- Only 2 of the last 5 head-to-heads had both teams scoring
- Cobán failed to score in 6 of 15 matches; Aurora failed to score in 5 of 15
- Aurora have kept 2 clean sheets in 15
- Aurora failed to score in 2 of 6 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cobán's recent scoring output has mostly stopped at one goal or fewer.
- Cobán scored 0 or 1 in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Cobán average 1.07 goals per match overall
- Cobán lost 0-1 at home to Guastatoya on 6 September
- The 1 April 2026 meeting between these sides finished 0-0
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCoban Imperial under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aurora's away scoring is under a goal a game and they rarely reach two.
- Aurora score 0.83 per away match and 1.0 per match overall
- Aurora scored two or more in only 1 of their last 6
- Cobán kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches and 2 in 15 overall
- Aurora failed to score in 2 of 6 away matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAurora FC Guatemala under 1.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cobán concede in nearly every match while Aurora score in two-thirds of their away games.
- Cobán kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches and 2 in 15 overall
- Aurora scored in 4 of 6 away matches
- Cobán conceded in 13 of 15 matches
- Cobán's home goals-against average is 1.33
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAurora FC Guatemala to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around a goal before half-time, which slightly favours at least one goal.
- Cobán home first-half total is 1.0 goal per match
- Aurora away first-half total is 1.17 goals per match
- Aurora concede 1.0 first-half goal per away match
- Cobán's last 6 matches produced 6 first-half goals in total
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring from both sides is thin, especially Aurora on the road.
- Aurora average 0.17 first-half goals away, Cobán 0.67 at home
- Cobán have scored 1 first-half goal in their last 6 matches
- Cobán's home first-half goals-against average is 0.33
- Aurora's away first-half goals-against average is 1.0
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent second halves have averaged around two goals, putting this line close to even.
- Cobán home second-half total is 2.0 goals per match
- Aurora away second-half total is 2.17 goals per match
- Aurora's away second-half goals-against average is 1.5
- Cobán's last 6 second halves produced 9 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%