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Predictions graded

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines2French Guiana1

HT 2–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 10–9On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 02:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Saint Vincent's unbeaten run in three competitive home matches meets a French Guiana side that won both 2023 meetings and whose recorded form stops in November 2024.

A home win is the single likeliest result, though those two head-to-head wins keep it from being clear-cut. Three reviewed prices carry value: French Guiana to win or draw at 4, French Guiana to win at 21, and under 3.5 goals at 1.91.

Context

The 1-4 defeat on 13 October 2023 remains the widest margin in the recorded head-to-head and the clearest sign that French Guiana can score heavily even in Saint Vincent. It is the sort of result that keeps this fixture open despite everything pointing to the hosts at home. Saint Vincent's unbeaten 2025 home record is the counterweight, but it covers only three matches.
- 13 October 2023, CONCACAF Nations League: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1-4 French Guiana — French Guiana won away by three goals.
Every competitive entry in French Guiana's record sits between June 2023 and November 2024, so the team described by those numbers is not necessarily the team arriving for this fixture. That gap is missing information rather than evidence of decline, and it should be treated as uncertainty. It also means the 2023 head-to-head results come from the same window as most of the away sample.
- French Guiana's 14 tracked competitive matches run from 17 June 2023 to 19 November 2024: W4 D4 L6.
- Goals across that sample: 1.57 scored and 1.36 conceded per competitive match.
- The wider 15-match source window includes one friendly and shares the same latest date, 19 November 2024.
Three matches is a short sample, so 3.33 goals per home game is a starting point rather than a settled scoring rate. Within that sample Saint Vincent scored in every match and kept one clean sheet, conceding twice in total. For this fixture the useful part is the consistency of scoring at home, not the size of the average.
- Three competitive home matches for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 21 March 2025 to 16 November 2025: W2 D1 L0.
- Averages across that home sample: 3.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per match.
- Saint Vincent scored in all three of those home matches and kept one clean sheet.
Saint Vincent's most recent competitive match was a 3-2 win in Barbados, and they were 2-0 up at half-time before conceding twice after the interval. It shows a side that can build a lead and then give part of it back. That second-half pattern is worth holding against the 2025 home numbers.
- 29 March 2026, CONCACAF Series away to Barbados: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines won 3-2.
- Half-time in that match: 2-0 ahead; second half: 1-2, with two goals conceded after the break.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SVG’s strong home record and high scoring at home make them the more likely winner, though French Guiana’s past wins show the gap is small.
- SVG home: W2 D1 L0, 3.33 goals for and 0.67 against in 3 competitive home matches.
- French Guiana away: W1 D3 L3, 1.14 goals for and 1.14 against in 7 away matches.
- French Guiana won both 2023 meetings, 4-1 away and 3-2 at home.
- SVG overall: W3 D1 L4, 1.88 goals for and 1.75 against in 8 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SVG have started home matches well, but French Guiana rarely concede early, so a half-time lead is only slightly favoured.
- SVG home first-half goals: 1.33 for, 0.33 against in 3.
- French Guiana away first-half goals: 0.57 for, 0.29 against in 7.
- SVG overall first-half goals: 0.88 for, 0.63 against in 8.
- French Guiana overall first-half goals: 0.64 for, 0.43 against in 14.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SVG have been much stronger after half-time at home, while French Guiana’s away second-half record is modest.
- SVG home second-half goals: 2.00 for, 0.33 against in 3.
- French Guiana away second-half goals: 0.57 for, 0.86 against in 7.
- SVG overall second-half goals: 1.00 for, 1.13 against in 8.
- French Guiana overall second-half goals: 0.93 for, 0.93 against in 14.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SVG’s strong home record and high scoring at home make them the more likely winner, though French Guiana’s past wins show the gap is small. French Guiana draw often away from home, and SVG’s home sample includes a draw, so a share of the points is plausible.
- SVG home: W2 D1 L0, 3.33 goals for and 0.67 against in 3 competitive home matches.
- French Guiana away: W1 D3 L3, 1.14 goals for and 1.14 against in 7 away matches.
- SVG home: one draw in three home matches.
- French Guiana away: three draws in seven away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSaint Vincent and the Grenadines or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SVG have started home matches well, but French Guiana rarely concede early, so a half-time lead is only slightly favoured. Both teams’ first halves are relatively low-scoring, so the half-time score is often level.
- SVG home first-half goals: 1.33 for, 0.33 against in 3.
- French Guiana away first-half goals: 0.57 for, 0.29 against in 7.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSaint Vincent and the Grenadines or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
French Guiana’s away games tend to be lower-scoring, which makes under 3.5 the more likely outcome.
- French Guiana away matches average 2.29 total goals in 7.
- SVG home matches average 4.0 total goals in 3.
- French Guiana’s last three away matches produced 3, 5 and 0 total goals.
- SVG overall matches average 3.63 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
SVG usually score at home and French Guiana score in most away matches, so both teams finding the net is more likely than not.
- SVG scored in all 3 home matches and conceded in 2 of 3.
- French Guiana scored in 4 of 7 away matches and conceded in 5 of 7.
- Both teams scored in 5 of SVG’s 8 competitive matches.
- Both teams scored in 8 of French Guiana’s 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SVG have scored at least twice in two of three home matches, making over 1.5 team goals likely.
- SVG home goals average 3.33 in 3 home matches.
- SVG scored 2+ in 2 of 3 home matches.
- French Guiana away conceded 1.14 per match.
- SVG overall scored 1.88 per match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSaint Vincent and the Grenadines over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
French Guiana’s away goal average is low and SVG concede little at home, so under 1.5 away goals is more likely.
- French Guiana away goals average 1.14 in 7 away matches.
- French Guiana scored under 1.5 in two of their last three away matches.
- SVG home conceded 0.67 per match.
- French Guiana overall scored 1.57 per match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFrench Guiana under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average enough first-half goals for at least one goal to be the more likely outcome.
- SVG home first-half goals average 1.67 total in 3.
- French Guiana away first-half goals average 0.86 total in 7.
- SVG overall first-half goals average 1.50 total.
- French Guiana overall first-half goals average 1.07 total.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely score in the same first half, so one or both being scoreless at half-time is more likely.
- French Guiana away first-half conceded average 0.29 in 7.
- SVG home first-half conceded average 0.33 in 3.
- French Guiana overall first-half scored 0.64 per match.
- SVG overall first-half scored 0.88 per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals in the available splits point to at least two goals being more likely than not.
- SVG home second-half goals average 2.33 total in 3.
- French Guiana away second-half goals average 1.43 total in 7.
- SVG overall second-half goals average 2.13 total.
- French Guiana overall second-half goals average 1.86 total.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
SVG’s home corner volume is high and French Guiana’s away matches tend to produce a moderate number, so over 10.5 is slightly favoured.
- SVG home corners average 9.0 in 1 match; opponent corners 1.0.
- French Guiana away corners average 3.67 in 6 matches; opponent corners 5.33.
- SVG overall corners average 7.0 in 2 matches; opponent corners 2.0.
- French Guiana overall corners average 3.75 in 12 matches; opponent corners 4.33.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
SVG’s home shot volume is high and French Guiana’s away matches produce a fair number of shots, so over 27.5 is more likely.
- SVG home shots average 21.0 in 1 match; opponent shots 3.0.
- French Guiana away shots average 11.2 in 5 matches; opponent shots 12.8.
- SVG overall shots average 15.0 in 2 matches; opponent shots 5.0.
- French Guiana overall shots average 12.2 in 10 matches; opponent shots 11.3.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 27.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SVG’s home shots on target count is high and French Guiana’s away matches add a few, making over 11.5 more likely.
- SVG home shots on target average 10.0 in 1 match; opponent 1.0.
- French Guiana away shots on target average 4.8 in 5 matches; opponent 3.8.
- SVG overall shots on target average 7.0 in 2 matches; opponent 2.0.
- French Guiana overall shots on target average 4.6 in 10 matches; opponent 3.6.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 11.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 1W

L3-2French GuyanavSt. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 16, 2023CON

W1-4St. Vincent / GrenadinesvFrench GuyanaOct 13, 2023CON

W0-1French GuyanavSt. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 11, 2018CON

3.7 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

W3-2BarbadosMar 29CON

L1-3BonaireMar 27CON

W3-1St. LuciaNov 16CON

L0-2Dominican RepublicNov 13CON

W1-0CubaOct 9FRI

W7-0CubaOct 5FRI

L1-2Puerto RicoJun 11WOR

W6-0AnguillaJun 4WOR

D1-1British Virgin IslandsMay 30FRI

W3-0St. Kitts and NevisMay 25FRI

W3-1St. Kitts and NevisMay 20FRI

L0-3JamaicaMar 26CON

D1-1JamaicaMar 21CON

D1-1GrenadaMar 9FRI

D1-1GrenadaMar 6FRI

French Guiana

D2-2BelizeNov 19CON

L1-2BelizeNov 15CON

L2-3NicaraguaOct 15CON

L2-3HondurasOct 10CON

D0-0Trinidad and TobagoSep 10CON

L0-1NicaraguaSep 6CON

D1-1HaitiMar 23FRI

W3-0BermudaNov 21CON

L0-1BelizeNov 18CON

W3-2St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 16CON

W4-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 13CON

L0-2BelizeSep 12CON

D0-0BermudaSep 8CON

D1-1St. Kitts and NevisJun 21CON

W4-1Sint MaartenJun 17CON

Squad & Injuries

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

French Guiana

43 available

Attackers11

Midfielders12

Defenders14

Goalkeeper6

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or French Guiana

French Guiana

Under 3.5

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

French Guiana

Squad & Injuries

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

French Guiana