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Predictions graded

Oldham Athletic1Salford City4

HT 1–2Sat 26 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1127%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 18–16On targetOn target 3–7CornersCorners 11–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 01:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Oldham's home record — four wins, no draws and one defeat in five home matches, with only two goals conceded — meets a Salford side unbeaten in four league games and winners of both meetings last season.

Oldham look the likelier winner, but their three straight league defeats and Salford's revival keep it tight. Three quoted prices are worthwhile: both teams to score – No at 2.2, no first-half goal at 3.0 and fewer than three goals at 2.0.

Context

Mellon's apology followed a third consecutive League Two defeat, the 2-0 loss at Rochdale, and he then publicly addressed a finishing problem and the free-agent market. A home derby is his immediate chance to answer that run, and Oldham have scored only twice in their last four league matches, so the finishing question is concrete rather than rhetorical. The apology is his own assessment of results and not a club statement about his position, so it points to pressure on the next few games without establishing any imminent change.
- The Oldham Times reported that manager Micky Mellon apologised to supporters after the 2-0 defeat at Rochdale on 19 September 2026.
- Mellon then discussed fixing the team's missed-chances problem and his thoughts on free agents (22 September 2026).
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 01:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Cklamovski took the Salford job ahead of this season after working as a head coach in Japan, and he lost his first three League Two matches before winning three of the next four. That recovery is why Salford arrive at a derby as the side in better league form rather than one facing early scrutiny, which sharpens the contrast with an Oldham team beaten in three straight. The caveat is location: all three of those wins came at home and two finished 1-0, so the only away evidence in the run is a 3-3 draw at Rotherham.
- Salford City's official account published Peter Cklamovski's look ahead to the Swindon Town fixture (18 September 2026).
- BBC Radio Manchester interviewed 'boss Peter Cklamovski' after Salford's 1-0 win over Swindon Town (19 September 2026).
- Japanese-language coverage noted that Cklamovski coached Montedio Yamagata from 2021 to 2023 before taking the Salford City job this season (23 September 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 01:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Salford arrive on an unbeaten four-match league run, while Oldham have been beaten in each of their last three league games.
The April meeting is recent enough to matter: Salford scored twice at Boundary Park and won by a single goal. That runs against Oldham's home split in the current window — four wins, no draws and one defeat, with 10 scored and two conceded in five home matches — so the head-to-head is a caution rather than an explanation. One game is a thin sample, and it was played by a different Oldham side at a different point of the season.
- Oldham Athletic 1-2 Salford City, League Two, at Boundary Park, 18 April 2026.
- Salford won by a single goal, scoring twice as the away side.
Oldham and Salford are Greater Manchester neighbours, and both clubs have marketed the fixture as a derby, with the away side selling coach travel for a trip of only a few miles. Boundary Park also gives the match an evening slot, a 17:30 kick-off on Saturday 26 September, which sets up a fuller and louder ground than a standard League Two afternoon. Nothing in the scheduling changes either manager's selection or shape, so the derby framing is atmosphere and stakes rather than a playing condition.
- Salford City's official account posted 'Derby day' with tickets and coach travel for the trip to Oldham on Saturday 26 September (23 September 2026).
- Oldham's official account billed the fixture as 'a Saturday evening at Boundary Park' with Salford tickets on sale (23 September 2026).
- An away guide for the 17:30 kick-off at Boundary Park was published for Salford supporters travelling to the game (22 September 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 01:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Oldham's home record is the strongest split in the evidence and Salford have not won a league away game this season.
- Oldham's home split in the window: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 10 goals scored and 2 conceded in 5 matches.
- Salford's away split: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses, 6 scored and 11 conceded in 6 matches.
- In League Two only, Salford are 0-1-2 away with 4 scored and 7 conceded.
- Salford won both 2025-26 meetings, 2-1 at Oldham and 1-0 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOldham AthleticEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides have started cautiously recently, and Salford have repeatedly reached half-time level.
- Oldham's home first halves average 0.6 total goals.
- Salford have been level at half-time in each of their last five league matches.
- Salford's last five league games produced four goalless first halves.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oldham do most of their home scoring after the break while Salford's away second halves are limited.
- Oldham's home second halves average 1.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded.
- Salford's away split second halves average 0.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
- Oldham scored both second-half goals in their 3-0 home win over Swindon.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostOldham AthleticEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Oldham's home record is the strongest split in the evidence and Salford have not won a league away game this season. Salford's recent league run and their wins in the last two meetings give them a genuine chance despite the away form.
- Oldham's home split in the window: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 10 goals scored and 2 conceded in 5 matches.
- Salford's away split: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses, 6 scored and 11 conceded in 6 matches.
- Salford are unbeaten in their last four league games with three wins.
- Oldham have lost their last three league games, conceding twice in each.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOldham Athletic or Salford CityEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salford concede more first-half goals away than they score, giving Oldham a small edge before the break. Both sides have started cautiously recently, and Salford have repeatedly reached half-time level.
- Oldham's home first halves average 0.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded.
- Salford's away split first halves average 0.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
- Oldham's home first halves average 0.6 total goals.
- Salford have been level at half-time in each of their last five league matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostOldham Athletic or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Oldham's home defence is tight and Salford's away scoring is modest, which points slightly below the line.
- Oldham concede 0.4 goals per home match across five games.
- Salford have kept two clean sheets in their last three league matches.
- Salford average 1.0 goal per away match in the window.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Oldham's home record is built on clean sheets, and one team failing to score is the more likely outcome.
- Oldham kept four clean sheets in five home matches, conceding 2 goals.
- Salford failed to score in one of their last six matches.
- Oldham's home split shows 0.4 goals conceded per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Oldham's recent scoring has been modest except for the Swindon game, so one goal or none is a fair outcome.
- Oldham have scored one goal or fewer in four of their last six matches.
- Oldham's home first-half scoring average is 0.4 goals per match.
- Salford kept clean sheets in their last two home league games and conceded 1 at Newport.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonOldham Athletic under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both Salford's away scoring rate and Oldham's home defensive record point to the visitors scoring at most once.
- Salford average 1.0 goal per away match in the window.
- Salford have scored one goal or fewer in four of their last six matches.
- Oldham concede 0.4 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSalford City under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Salford have found the net consistently in recent weeks, making a blank at Boundary Park less likely than not.
- Salford have scored in five of their last six matches.
- Salford average 1.0 goal per away match, with 4 goals in 3 league away games.
- Oldham conceded 2 goals in their most recent home league match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSalford City to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Oldham's recent games usually produce a goal before the break, though Salford's league first halves have been quiet.
- Five of Oldham's last six matches produced a first-half goal.
- Oldham's home first halves average 0.6 total goals.
- Salford's away first halves average 1.84 total goals but four of their last five league games had none.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Salford's limited away scoring after the break, one goal or none in the second half is the safer call.
- Salford's away split second halves average 1.0 total goal.
- Salford scored 0.55 second-half goals per match overall.
- Oldham's last two home league games produced 2 and 3 goals in total.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Averaged across both teams' relevant splits, the corner count falls under the line.
- Oldham's home matches average 8.2 corners in total.
- Salford's away matches average 8.83 corners in total.
- Oldham's midweek tie had 6 corners in total.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot-on-target averages for both teams' relevant splits sit just below nine.
- Oldham's home matches average 8.0 shots on target in total.
- Salford's away matches average 8.17 shots on target in total.
- Oldham's midweek tie produced 5 shots on target in total.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' yellow-card totals sit above three per match and the derby context adds to the likelihood.
- Oldham's matches average 3.45 yellow cards in total, Salford's 3.64.
- Oldham's home split: 1.0 yellow cards for and 2.6 against per match.
- Salford's away split: 1.5 for and 1.83 against per match.
- It is a Greater Manchester derby with a Saturday evening kick-off.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W1-2OldhamvSalford CityApr 18, 2026LEA

L1-0Salford CityvOldhamOct 18, 2025LEA

W1-2OldhamvSalford CityApr 23, 2022LEA

L2-0Salford CityvOldhamNov 27, 2021LEA

L1-0OldhamvSalford CityAug 31, 2021EFL

Salford City: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Oldham Athletic	7	2	1	4	8-9	7	LLLDW
12	Salford City	7	3	1	3	8-9	10	WDWWL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Oldham Athletic

W1-0Fleetwood TownSep 22EFL

L0-2RochdaleSep 19LEA

L1-2ChesterfieldSep 12LEA

L0-2TranmereSep 5LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownSep 1LEA

W3-0Swindon TownAug 29LEA

L1-2ColchesterAug 22LEA

W2-0Port ValeAug 15LEA

L0-2Stoke CityAug 8LEA

W4-0Sheffield WednesdayAug 1FRI

L0-1Stockport CountyJul 28FRI

L1-3HuddersfieldJul 24FRI

L1-3BoltonJul 21FRI

W3-0Accrington STMay 2LEA

L2-3Newport CountyApr 25LEA

Salford City

L1-2Sheffield WednesdaySep 22EFL

W1-0Swindon TownSep 19LEA

D3-3RotherhamSep 12LEA

W1-0Port ValeSep 5LEA

W2-1Newport CountySep 1LEA

L0-1ShrewsburyAug 29LEA

L0-1ChesterfieldAug 22LEA

L1-3BarnetAug 15LEA

D2-2BradfordAug 1FRI

W2-0CarlisleJul 28FRI

W3-2Dundee UtdJul 25FRI

W4-1United of ManchesterJul 18FRI

L0-3Notts CountyMay 25LEA

W2-1GrimsbyMay 10LEA

D0-0Crawley TownMay 2LEA

Squad & Injuries

Oldham Athletic

26 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Salford City

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 2.5

Oldham Athletic or Salford City

Oldham Athletic

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Oldham Athletic

Salford City

Squad & Injuries

Oldham Athletic

Salford City