UEFA Nations LeagueFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

North Macedonia0Switzerland3

HT 0–2Sat 26 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 2–23On targetOn target 0–11CornersCorners 0–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 01:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Switzerland are unbeaten in ten competitive matches but have drawn three of four away games and travel without captain Granit Xhaka, while North Macedonia are unbeaten at home in this window.

Switzerland still look the likelier winners, though the game shapes as tight and low-scoring. Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 and the draw at 4.75 are the two prices worth taking; Switzerland at 1.38 asks for much more than their away form shows.

Context

Switzerland travel to Skopje without captain Granit Xhaka, a change the Swiss federation itself made explicit by publishing its 21 September camp notice as taking place without him. The withdrawal follows his admission that he acquired a false COVID-19 vaccination certificate, and reporting says he misses both this match and the trip to Scotland while cooperating with authorities. Reading this fixture through a missing captain matters because Switzerland must now organise a competitive away game around a different on-field leader and midfield shape. The counterpoint is one of scope rather than doubt: this is a leadership and personnel change to an otherwise intact squad, not a broader availability crisis.
- The Swiss federation published its national-team camp announcement as taking place 'without Granit Xhaka' on 21 September 2026.
- Granit Xhaka said he acquired a false COVID-19 vaccination certificate and would cooperate with authorities; Swiss reporting states he sits out the Nations League games against North Macedonia and Scotland.
- G. Xhaka started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 439 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 01:51 · Europe/Bucharest
In that away sample Switzerland averaged 15 shots and 5.25 shots on target per match while scoring 1.0 goal per game and conceding 0.5.
Switzerland's wider record of seven wins in ten competitive matches is strong, yet on the road they have drawn three of four and scored three goals in four games, so the trip is likely to be tighter than that ten-match record suggests.
- Four competitive away matches from 10 October 2025 to 13 June 2026: W1 D3 L0, three goals scored and two conceded.
- Switzerland averaged 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded per away match in that sample.
- They averaged 15 shots with 5.25 on target per away match; their opponents averaged 7 shots with 1.75 on target.
They conceded 0.6 goals per home match across that run and averaged 4.4 shots on target per game, against 3.2 for visiting teams.
That home record is why a tight, low-scoring game is the sensible read here, and it is also why North Macedonia cannot be dismissed at home despite Switzerland's stronger overall record.
- Five home competitive matches from 17 November 2024 to 13 October 2025: W2 D3 L0.
- Three goals conceded across those five home matches, an average of 0.6 per game.
- North Macedonia averaged 4.4 shots on target per home match, their opponents 3.2.
Their opponents averaged 2.4 shots on target and 7.3 shots per competitive match across that sample.
This defensive record is the main reason Switzerland are the likelier winners here, but North Macedonia have scored in eight of their ten tracked competitive matches, so a clean sheet is not the default outcome.
- Ten competitive matches from 5 September 2025 to 3 July 2026: W7 D3 L0.
- Five clean sheets and five goals conceded across those ten matches, an average of 0.5 conceded per game.
- Opponents averaged 2.4 shots on target and 7.3 shots per match in the same sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.73fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 57.8%

−1.8ppshort

Switzerland's defence limits opponents' clear chances, making at least one blank the more likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Switzerland have the stronger defensive record and squad quality, though their away matches have been close.
- Switzerland are unbeaten in ten competitive matches (W7 D3) with 0.5 goals conceded per game
- Switzerland kept five clean sheets in ten competitive matches
- North Macedonia lost their two most recent competitive matches 0-4 to Denmark and 1-7 to Wales
- North Macedonia are unbeaten at home in this window (W2 D3)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSwitzerlandEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' venue-specific first-half numbers are very low, making a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- North Macedonia average 0.2 first-half goals for and 0.2 against in home matches
- Switzerland average 0.25 first-half goals in away matches
- North Macedonia's overall first-half figures are 0.5 scored and 0.4 conceded
- Switzerland concede 0.1 first-half goals per competitive match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Switzerland's second-half scoring is the strongest single figure in these splits.
- Switzerland score 1.3 second-half goals per competitive match
- Switzerland concede 0.4 second-half goals overall and 0.5 away
- North Macedonia concede 1.0 second-half goal per competitive match
- Switzerland scored four second-half goals in their win over Bosnia & Herzegovina
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSwitzerlandEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' venue splits point to a tight, low-scoring game rather than a decisive result. Switzerland have the stronger defensive record and squad quality, though their away matches have been close.
- Switzerland drew three of four away matches (W1 D3 L0)
- North Macedonia drew three of five home matches
- Switzerland are unbeaten in ten competitive matches (W7 D3) with 0.5 goals conceded per game
- Switzerland kept five clean sheets in ten competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or SwitzerlandEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' venue-specific first-half numbers are very low, making a level first half the most likely single outcome. Switzerland's first-half scoring and strong early defence make them the likelier team to lead at the break.
- North Macedonia average 0.2 first-half goals for and 0.2 against in home matches
- Switzerland average 0.25 first-half goals in away matches
- Switzerland average 1.0 first-half goals and 0.1 conceded in competitive matches
- North Macedonia concede 0.4 first-half goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or SwitzerlandEstimated chance85%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both teams' recent defensive numbers and Switzerland's quiet away scoring point to a total under three.
- North Macedonia average 1.4 goals for and 1.4 against in ten competitive matches
- Switzerland average 0.5 goals conceded per competitive match
- Switzerland's away matches produced three goals scored and two conceded across four games
- North Macedonia's home matches average 0.6 goals conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Switzerland's defence limits opponents' clear chances, making at least one blank the more likely outcome.
- Switzerland kept five clean sheets in ten competitive matches and two in four away matches
- North Macedonia's competitive matches produced five clean sheets in ten
- Switzerland concede 2.4 shots on target per competitive match
- North Macedonia scored in eight of ten competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland's away output has been roughly one goal per game against a home side that concedes little.
- Switzerland scored three goals in four away matches
- North Macedonia concede 0.6 goals per home match
- Switzerland average 0.75 goals per away match
- North Macedonia conceded three goals across five home matches in this window
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSwitzerland under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
North Macedonia's home scoring record makes it more likely than not that Switzerland concede.
- North Macedonia scored in eight of ten competitive matches
- North Macedonia's home matches average 1.8 goals scored
- Switzerland's away matches produced two clean sheets in four
- Switzerland concede 0.5 goals per competitive match overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNorth Macedonia to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland's consistent scoring makes a North Macedonia shutout unlikely.
- Switzerland average 2.3 goals per competitive match
- Switzerland's scoring record covers nine goals in ten competitive matches tracked
- North Macedonia kept two clean sheets in five home matches
- Switzerland average 5.5 shots on target per competitive match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSwitzerland to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected first-half scoring is modest, leaving the goalless and one-goal outcomes close together.
- Switzerland average 1.0 first-half goals overall but 0.25 in away matches
- North Macedonia average 0.2 first-half goals for and 0.2 against in home matches
- North Macedonia's overall first-half figures are 0.5 scored and 0.4 conceded
- Switzerland score in the first half of roughly half of their competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland's away second halves have been quiet, keeping the under marginally ahead.
- Switzerland average 0.75 second-half goals and 0.5 conceded in away matches
- North Macedonia concede 0.4 second-half goals at home
- Switzerland kept five clean sheets in ten competitive matches
- North Macedonia's second-half goals against average 1.0 overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals sit around the line, and Switzerland's away matches have been corner-heavy for them.
- North Macedonia's competitive matches average 9.9 corners in total, 3.6 for and 6.3 against
- Switzerland's average 8.3 corners in total, 4.9 for and 3.4 against
- Switzerland take 6.0 corners per away match
- North Macedonia concede 4.8 corners per home match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland restrict opponents' shot volume, and North Macedonia's home matches have not been as open as their away losses.
- Switzerland's competitive matches average 19.4 shots in total
- Switzerland's opponents average 7.3 shots per match
- North Macedonia's home matches average 12.8 shots for and 11 against
- North Macedonia's overall matches average 23.7 shots per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 22.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined shots-on-target figures fall short of this line.
- North Macedonia's competitive matches average 8.2 shots on target in total
- Switzerland's average 7.9 shots on target in total
- Switzerland's away opponents average 1.75 shots on target
- North Macedonia's home opponents average 3.2 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	North Macedonia Relegation	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
2	Switzerland Promotion Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

North Macedonia leads the leagueSwitzerland leads the leagueNorth Macedonia in relegation zone

Recent Form

North Macedonia

L0-4TürkiyeJun 1FRI

D0-0Bosnia & HerzegovinaMay 29FRI

D0-0Rep. Of IrelandMar 31FRI

L0-4DenmarkMar 26WOR

L1-7WalesNov 18WOR

D0-0LatviaNov 13FRI

D1-1KazakhstanOct 13WOR

D0-0BelgiumOct 10WOR

W5-0LiechtensteinSep 7WOR

L1-2Saudi ArabiaSep 4FRI

W1-0KazakhstanJun 9WOR

D1-1BelgiumJun 6WOR

D1-1WalesMar 25WOR

W3-0LiechtensteinMar 22WOR

W1-0Faroe IslandsNov 17UEF

Switzerland

W2-0AlgeriaJul 3WOR

W2-1CanadaJun 24WOR

W4-1Bosnia & HerzegovinaJun 18WOR

D1-1QatarJun 13WOR

D1-1AustraliaJun 6FRI

W4-1JordanMay 31FRI

D0-0NorwayMar 31FRI

L3-4GermanyMar 27FRI

D1-1KosovoNov 18WOR

W4-1SwedenNov 15WOR

D0-0SloveniaOct 13WOR

W2-0SwedenOct 10WOR

W3-0SloveniaSep 8WOR

W4-0KosovoSep 5WOR

W4-0USAJun 11FRI

Squad & Injuries

North Macedonia

37 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Switzerland

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Draw

No

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 3 landed

League Table

Recent Form

North Macedonia

Switzerland

Squad & Injuries

North Macedonia

Switzerland