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Predictions graded

Guadalajara Chivas0Queretaro2

HT 0–1Sat 26 Sept 2026, 23:07 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 74%–26%ShotsShots 26–13On targetOn target 5–6CornersCorners 13–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 04:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Chivas, second in the Apertura, host an unbeaten-on-the-road Querétaro without goalkeeper Raúl Rangel and midfielder Roberto Alvarado, so the 1.38 on the home win asks more than the evidence supports.

Chivas are still the likelier winners, but Querétaro to win at 6.5 and Querétaro to win or draw at 2.9 are worthwhile, along with fewer than three goals at 2.4, one side failing to score at 2.0 and no first-half goal at 3.6.

Context

The absence spread is unusually wide for one fixture: a senior call-up removes goalkeeper Raúl Rangel and midfielder Roberto Alvarado, two more players leave for the Under-20 side, and Miguel Gómez, José Castillo and Rubén González carry injury doubts. Local previews projected Óscar Whalley in goal and Santiago Sandoval as Alvarado's replacement, so both the last line and the build-up are likely to change. Milito must also manage players who only return from national duty after this match. The full count is reported rather than confirmed by the club, so the exact size of the list is less certain than the call-ups themselves.
- Raúl Rangel and Roberto Alvarado joined the senior Mexico squad and will sit out the Querétaro fixture, with Chivas' other internationals reporting after it.
- Sebastián Liceaga and Samir Inda were called up by Mexico Under-20 and are also unavailable for Jornada 10.
- Reports put Chivas' absentee list for the game at up to eight players, including injury doubts over Miguel Gómez, José Castillo and Rubén González.
- Local previews projected Óscar Whalley and Santiago Sandoval as the likely replacements for Rangel and Alvarado respectively.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Two regional outlets flagged Hurricane Polo as a risk to Saturday's game, describing it as under watch rather than cancelled or moved. The fixture is due at Chivas' Estadio Akron, so sustained rain and wind would change the playing surface and could pull the contest toward a more direct, lower-tempo game. Because neither the clubs nor Liga MX has confirmed any alteration, this stays unresolved and should not be treated as a settled condition. Weather in Jalisco can also ease quickly, so the picture may change before kickoff.
- TV Azteca Jalisco asked whether Hurricane Polo could put the Chivas–Querétaro match at risk, describing the weather as a potentially important factor for the game.
- POSTA Durango reported that the hurricane had put the Chivas–Querétaro fixture 'under attention' because of conditions in Jalisco.
To watchSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Both clubs arrive in the upper part of the table — Chivas second, Querétaro fifth — so the Jornada 10 fixture carries more than routine home weight. Chivas need a win to keep pressure on the title race after letting a two-goal lead slip in the 2-2 Clásico draw with América, while Querétaro's 14-point start has them inside the liguilla places. Querétaro have already beaten Pachuca, Tigres, Atlas and Tijuana this season, so they are not an obvious pushover. Table positions shift weekly, so this frames the match rather than establishing an edge.
- Preview coverage frames the fixture as second versus fifth in the Apertura 2026 general table in Jornada 10.
- Querétaro sat fifth on 14 points after Jornada 9, following a 1-1 comeback draw at home to León.
- Chivas drew the Clásico Nacional 2-2 with América after leading 2-0 at half-time, staying near the top of the table.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:55 · Europe/Bucharest
ADN Querétaro reported that the club finishes the international window without absentees, in contrast to the call-up-driven shortages Chivas are handling. That keeps Esteban González's preferred group together for a trip to the league's second-placed side. The effect is indirect, since a settled squad creates no advantage on its own, but it removes a selection complication the hosts cannot avoid. The report covers national-team call-ups only, not injuries or suspensions.
- Querétaro outlet ADN reported that no Gallos Blancos player made a national-team squad for this FIFA date.
- Enzo Giménez was the last Querétaro player with a realistic call-up chance and was not included in the final list.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:55 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chivas have been the stronger side at home and hold the recent head-to-head record, though the missing regulars cut into that advantage.
- Chivas' Apertura home record is 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded.
- Querétaro are unbeaten away in the Apertura: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- Chivas are without goalkeeper Raúl Rangel and midfielder Roberto Alvarado, with reports of up to eight absentees.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGuadalajara ChivasEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chivas have started matches strongly at home while Querétaro have rarely led at the break on their travels.
- Chivas' home matches average 0.71 first-half goals scored and 0.29 conceded.
- Chivas led at half-time in five of their last six matches.
- Querétaro's away matches average 0.29 first-half goals scored and 0.71 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostGuadalajara ChivasEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chivas have been the better side after the break at home, but second halves are close to even in these two teams' matches.
- Chivas' home matches average 1.00 second-half goals scored and 0.71 conceded.
- Querétaro's away matches average 0.86 second-half goals scored and 0.43 conceded.
- Chivas won the second half in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGuadalajara ChivasEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chivas have been the stronger side at home and hold the recent head-to-head record, though the missing regulars cut into that advantage. Querétaro's away results and intact squad give them a genuine chance against a depleted Chivas.
- Chivas' Apertura home record is 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded.
- Querétaro are unbeaten away in the Apertura: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- Querétaro have taken 3 wins and 1 draw from four league away games, scoring 6 and conceding 2.
- They won away at Tijuana and Atlas in their last four league away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGuadalajara Chivas or QueretaroEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chivas have started matches strongly at home while Querétaro have rarely led at the break on their travels. Querétaro have a habit of reaching half-time level, and Chivas' home first halves rarely produce many goals.
- Chivas' home matches average 0.71 first-half goals scored and 0.29 conceded.
- Chivas led at half-time in five of their last six matches.
- Querétaro were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Chivas' home first-half goals-against average is 0.29.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostGuadalajara Chivas or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Querétaro's low-scoring away games and the tight recent head-to-head point to a moderate total.
- Four of the last five head-to-head meetings produced two goals or fewer.
- Querétaro have scored 8 goals in 12 league matches.
- Querétaro have conceded 2 goals in four away league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Chivas' home defence and Querétaro's modest away scoring make one blank the more likely outcome.
- Chivas kept clean sheets in 5 of 14 matches overall and 3 of 7 at home.
- Querétaro failed to score in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Querétaro's away games average 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Querétaro's away defence and Chivas' absences make a two-goal home haul less likely.
- Querétaro have conceded 2 goals in four away league games.
- Chivas are missing goalkeeper Raúl Rangel and midfielder Roberto Alvarado.
- Chivas' home goals-for average is 1.71 with three home clean sheets.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGuadalajara Chivas under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Querétaro's away output has usually been one goal or none.
- Querétaro have scored 8 goals in 12 league matches.
- Their away average is 1.14 goals per game.
- Chivas kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostQueretaro under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Querétaro have usually found at least one goal on their travels, so a Chivas shutout is the less likely side.
- Querétaro scored in 4 of their last 6 league games.
- Querétaro's away matches average 1.14 goals scored.
- Chivas' home clean-sheet rate is 3 in 7.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQueretaro to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chivas' scoring consistency makes it probable they find at least one goal at home.
- Chivas scored in 12 of 14 competitive matches.
- Chivas average 1.71 goals per home match.
- Querétaro kept 2 clean sheets in 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGuadalajara Chivas to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Around one first-half goal is the usual pattern in both teams' matches, making an early goal more likely than none.
- Chivas' home matches average 1.00 first-half goals in total.
- Querétaro's away matches average 1.00 first-half goals in total.
- Five of Chivas' last six matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's recent matches have regularly reached 14 corners.
- Chivas' matches average 11.71 total corners.
- Querétaro's matches average 11.25 total corners.
- Querétaro's last six matches averaged 10 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 13.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Querétaro's away matches have produced few shots on target, keeping the total under the line.
- Chivas' home matches average 10.29 total shots on target.
- Querétaro's away matches average 9.14 total shots on target.
- Querétaro's last six matches averaged 8.2 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chivas' recent matches have stayed well below the line and Querétaro's away card counts are moderate.
- Chivas' last six matches averaged 2.8 cards.
- Chivas average 1.31 yellow cards per match.
- Querétaro's away matches average 2.43 yellow cards for them and 1.14 for opponents.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W2-1Guadalajara ChivasvClub QueretaroJan 17, 2026LIG

L1-0Club QueretarovGuadalajara ChivasOct 23, 2025LIG

D1-1Guadalajara ChivasvClub QueretaroFeb 1, 2025LIG

W0-2Club QueretarovGuadalajara ChivasJul 17, 2024LIG

W2-0Guadalajara ChivasvClub QueretaroApr 21, 2024LIG

Guadalajara Chivas: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga MX 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Guadalajara Chivas Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	9	5	3	1	17-8	18	DWWDW
5	Queretaro Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	8	4	2	2	11-8	14	DWWLD

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Guadalajara Chivas

D2-2Club AmericaSep 20LIG

W3-0U.N.A.M. - PumasSep 14LIG

W3-0Atletico San LuisSep 5LIG

D1-1CF PachucaAug 29LIG

W5-2Club TijuanaAug 22LIG

W1-0Santos LagunaAug 17LIG

W2-1Seattle SoundersAug 13LEA

L0-1FC DallasAug 9LEA

D1-1PueblaAug 1LIG

W1-0FC JuarezJul 25LIG

L0-2TolucaJul 19LIG

D0-0Correcaminos UatJul 4FRI

L1-2Cruz AzulMay 17LIG

D2-2Cruz AzulMay 14LIG

W2-0Tigres UANLMay 10LIG

Queretaro

D1-1LeonSep 21LIG

W1-0Club TijuanaSep 12LIG

W3-1AtlasAug 29LIG

L1-2TolucaAug 22LIG

D0-0U.N.A.M. - PumasAug 16LIG

L0-3Seattle SoundersAug 9LEA

L0-2FC DallasAug 6LEA

W3-2Tigres UANLAug 1LIG

W2-1CF PachucaJul 27LIG

L0-1Club AmericaJul 19LIG

W1-0AustinJul 3FRI

D2-2Atletico San LuisJun 26FRI

W2-0Reboceros La PiedadJun 20FRI

W2-1PueblaApr 25LIG

D1-1Cruz AzulApr 22LIG

Squad & Injuries

Guadalajara Chivas

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Queretaro

28 available

Attackers4

Midfielders15

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Guadalajara Chivas0Queretaro2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Queretaro

Queretaro

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw or Queretaro

Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Guadalajara Chivas

Queretaro

Squad & Injuries

Guadalajara Chivas

Queretaro