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Predictions graded

Fleetwood Town1Rochdale2

HT 1–2Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 21–12On targetOn target 5–6CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 03:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Fleetwood's unbeaten home run — six competitive games, one goal conceded — meets a Rochdale side yet to score in three League Two away trips, and Fleetwood to win is the likeliest outcome.

Five quoted prices still offer something: both teams not to score at 1.91, under 2.5 goals at 1.80, the first half drawn at 2.25, Fleetwood at 1.88 and Fleetwood or draw at 1.25.

Context

Rochdale were 3-1 ahead at Spotland on 22 September against a Liverpool under-21 side that had been reduced to ten men, then conceded twice in stoppage time and lost the shootout 7-6. That came four days before this trip, and Rochdale went into the tie with something close to a first-choice group, with Sam Waller returning in goal and both Laurence Maguire and Devante Rodney restored. Late collapses of that shape sit awkwardly with a side that has already conceded three or more in three league games this season. What the score cannot show is whether Saturday's league XI and its shape will be the same one.
- Rochdale led 3-1 at home to Liverpool U21 in the EFL Trophy on 22 September 2026.
- Liverpool U21, down to ten men, scored twice in stoppage time through substitutes Trueman and Sonni-Lambie to level at 3-3 and then won the shootout 7-6.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 03:39 · Europe/Bucharest
Four days before Rochdale arrive, Fleetwood used their EFL Trophy opener to hand club debuts to academy players Jesse Dempsey, Sean Costelloe and Mo Oladiti and a first start to goalkeeper James Pradic. That points to the core of Matt Lawlor's league XI being largely kept out of a competitive 90 minutes at Boundary Park, which is a real freshness detail for a Saturday home game. The counterpoint is that a rotated Trophy side says little about Lawlor's selection or tactical shape against Rochdale. The 1-0 defeat also made it two losses in a week for the club.
- Fleetwood Town confirmed that Jesse Dempsey, Sean Costelloe and Mo Oladiti made their club debuts at Oldham on 22 September 2026, with James Pradic making his first start.
- Fleetwood described the side as 'a youthful Town side' with 'several young Cods getting their chance'.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 03:39 · Europe/Bucharest
Barnet, unbeaten and top of League Two at the time, won 3-1 at the Hive on 19 September, which the club itself framed as Fleetwood's first defeat of the season. The result ended a start that had carried Fleetwood through the opening weeks without a loss in any competition, and BBC Sport Lancashire reported Lawlor telling his players they had to 'start again now'. It removes the sense that the home side arrive at Highbury as an untouched team, though it was a single away game against the division's strongest early side.
- Fleetwood Town described the 3-1 loss at Barnet on 19 September 2026 as the club's first defeat of the season.
- BBC Sport Lancashire quoted head coach Matt Lawlor after the game: 'We have to start again now.'
- Barnet went into the fixture unbeaten and top of League Two.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 03:39 · Europe/Bucharest
Rochdale named Devante Rodney 'straight back in from injury' for their EFL Trophy tie on 22 September, and he opened the scoring with a strike from distance in the 37th minute. The club then gave his return its own post the following day, so he arrives at the weekend having already played competitive minutes. Regaining a senior forward four days out matters for a side that has leaned on a thin, injury-hit group through the opening weeks. The Trophy setting means the goal itself says little about how he will be used or how sharp he is in League Two.
- Rochdale named Devante Rodney 'straight back in from injury' in their EFL Trophy starting line-up on 22 September 2026.
- Rodney scored Rochdale's opening goal, a strike from distance in the 37th minute.
- Rochdale marked his return from injury with a dedicated post on 23 September 2026.
- D. Rodney started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 03:39 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Fleetwood have been extremely hard to score against at home, while Rochdale have yet to find the net in the league away from Spotland.
- Fleetwood are unbeaten in six competitive home matches this season (4W 2D), conceding once at home.
- Rochdale have scored no goals in three League Two away games (0W 1D 2L).
- Rochdale's away split across competitions: 1W 1D 3L, 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
- League table: Fleetwood 11th on 10 points, Rochdale 17th on 7.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFleetwood TownEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, making a level opening period the most likely single outcome.
- Fleetwood's first-half goals for and against at home are 0.83 and 0.17.
- Rochdale's away first-half figures are 0.2 scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Several recent Fleetwood matches were level at the break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With modest second-half scoring rates on both sides, a level closing period is the most likely single result.
- Fleetwood score 0.67 and concede 0 second-half goals per home match.
- Rochdale score 0.2 and concede 0.8 second-half goals per away match.
- Low-scoring second halves are typical for both teams' recent matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Fleetwood have been extremely hard to score against at home, while Rochdale have yet to find the net in the league away from Spotland. Fleetwood's league record is draw-heavy and both squads faced a short turnaround from midweek Trophy matches.
- Fleetwood are unbeaten in six competitive home matches this season (4W 2D), conceding once at home.
- Rochdale have scored no goals in three League Two away games (0W 1D 2L).
- Fleetwood have drawn four of their seven League Two games.
- Fleetwood conceded only one goal in six competitive home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFleetwood Town or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fleetwood start home matches better than Rochdale start away matches, though first halves are often level. Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, making a level opening period the most likely single outcome.
- Fleetwood score 0.83 first-half goals per home match and concede 0.17.
- Rochdale score 0.2 and concede 0.6 first-half goals per away match.
- Fleetwood's first-half goals for and against at home are 0.83 and 0.17.
- Rochdale's away first-half figures are 0.2 scored and 0.6 conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostFleetwood Town or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both teams' recent matches point to a low total, with Fleetwood's home defence strong and Rochdale's away scoring minimal.
- Fleetwood concede 0.73 goals a game overall and 0.17 at home, with six clean sheets in 11.
- Rochdale average 1.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 11 competitive matches.
- Rochdale have failed to score in three league away games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Rochdale's away scoring record is so thin that at least one side failing to score is the more likely outcome.
- Fleetwood kept five clean sheets in six competitive home matches.
- Rochdale scored one goal in five away matches (0.4 per game).
- Fleetwood have conceded in only one of six home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fleetwood's home defensive record and Rochdale's scoreless away league run point to a home clean sheet.
- Fleetwood have five clean sheets in six competitive home matches.
- Fleetwood concede 0.17 goals per home match.
- Rochdale have scored no goals in three League Two away games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRochdale not to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
A Fleetwood win without conceding is only one route to victory, and Fleetwood have drawn often.
- Fleetwood's home league record is 1W 2D 0L with three goals scored.
- Fleetwood have drawn four of seven League Two matches.
- Rochdale scored in two of their last three matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Fleetwood's home first-half scoring rate makes at least one goal before the break the likelier outcome.
- Fleetwood score 0.83 first-half goals per home match.
- Rochdale concede 0.6 first-half goals per away match.
- Rochdale score 0.2 first-half goals away and Fleetwood concede 0.17 at home.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have comfortably cleared nine corners on average, largely through opponents' corner counts.
- Fleetwood home matches average 10.8 corners in total (5.7 for, 5.2 against).
- Rochdale away matches average 11.5 corners in total (3.8 for, 7.8 against).
- Fleetwood overall matches average 10.2 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rochdale's matches feature a high volume of shots, mostly from opponents, and Fleetwood also generate a steady count.
- Rochdale away matches average 26.0 total shots (8.5 for, 17.5 against).
- Fleetwood home matches average 22.3 total shots (11.2 each way).
- Fleetwood overall matches average 24.0 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 19.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Opponents have put a lot of shots on target against Rochdale away, and Fleetwood's home games sit close to the line.
- Rochdale away matches average 8.75 shots on target in total (1.75 for, 7.0 against).
- Fleetwood home matches average 5.3 shots on target in total.
- Fleetwood overall matches average 6.4 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages sit below five, with Rochdale's away games particularly quiet on bookings.
- Rochdale matches average 3.6 yellow cards in total.
- Rochdale away matches have seen 1.0 opponent yellow cards per game.
- Fleetwood home matches average 4.0 yellow cards in total.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1Fleetwood TownvRochdaleJul 20, 2024FRI

D3-3RochdalevFleetwood TownJul 17, 2021FRI

W1-0Fleetwood TownvRochdaleApr 10, 2021LEA

L2-1RochdalevFleetwood TownOct 3, 2020LEA

W2-3RochdalevFleetwood TownDec 26, 2019LEA

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Fleetwood Town	7	2	4	1	8-7	10	LDWDD
17	Rochdale	7	2	1	4	7-10	7	WDLWL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Fleetwood Town

L0-1OldhamSep 22EFL

L1-3BarnetSep 19LEA

W1-0Sheffield UtdSep 16LEA

D1-1Newport CountySep 12LEA

W2-0ShrewsburySep 5LEA

D1-1OldhamSep 1LEA

D2-2GrimsbyAug 29LEA

W4-0ShrewsburyAug 25LEA

D0-0GillinghamAug 22LEA

W1-0ChesterfieldAug 15LEA

W1-0ChesterfieldAug 8LEA

L0-1HartlepoolAug 1FRI

D1-1BoltonJul 28FRI

W2-1HuddersfieldJul 21FRI

W1-0SouthportJul 18FRI

Rochdale

W2-0OldhamSep 19LEA

D0-0WalsallSep 12LEA

L1-4GillinghamSep 5LEA

W3-0ShrewsburySep 1LEA

L0-1ColchesterAug 29LEA

L1-2Crawley TownAug 22LEA

L0-3Newport CountyAug 15LEA

L0-2BradfordAug 8LEA

L2-3FC Halifax TownJul 28FRI

D2-2Farnham TownJul 25FRI

D3-3Al-Rayyan SCJul 19FRI

L0-2United of ManchesterJul 14FRI

W2-1ScunthorpeMay 3NAT

D1-1YorkApr 25NAT

W2-1BraintreeApr 18NAT

Squad & Injuries

Fleetwood Town

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Rochdale

32 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 2.5

Draw

Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood Town or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Fleetwood Town

Rochdale

Squad & Injuries

Fleetwood Town

Rochdale