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Predictions graded

Dumbarton3Banks O'Dee2

HT 2–1Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 11:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Dumbarton's home record against a Banks O'Dee side conceding 3.14 goals a game on the road points to a home win in this Challenge Cup tie, but 1.62 is shorter than a team with 10 defeats in 15 merits, and 1.2 for the home side to win or draw is shorter again.

The value sits in the low-scoring outcomes: Under 2.5 goals at 3.1, both teams to score, no, at 2.8, and no goal in the first half at 4.2.

Context

Three clean sheets and a scoring rate of 1.38 per home game are why they start ahead in this tie. The three home defeats and 1.63 conceded per game show it is not a fortress, and the visitors need only one of their scoring away days to make it awkward.
- 11 July to 19 September 2026: 8 competitive home matches, 4 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- 1.38 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per home game across those 8 matches
- Dumbarton scored in six of those eight home matches and kept three clean sheets
A single match from October 2023 is a thin basis for anything, but it is the only head-to-head on record and it produced five goals with the home side edging it. It is the one piece of direct evidence that the two clubs have been competitive with each other.
- 28 October 2023: Dumbarton 3-2 Banks O'Dee, the only meeting between the clubs in the supplied record
It is the clearest evidence that the step up from the Highland League has not overwhelmed them, and they stayed level over 90 minutes against a League Two club. The result came at home, though, and their away record this season is where the problems sit.
- 8 September 2026: Banks O'Dee 1-1 Forfar Athletic, Challenge Cup
A 6-1 cup defeat is the sharpest warning against treating Dumbarton as comfortable favourites. It came away from home, so it says less about this tie than their home form does, but the second half, four goals conceded after a 2-1 half-time deficit, shows how quickly a night can get away from them.
- 8 September 2026: Cove Rangers 6-1 Dumbarton, Challenge Cup
- Dumbarton trailed 2-1 at half-time and conceded four second-half goals

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Dumbarton's home record and Banks O'Dee's heavy away concession rate make the hosts clear favourites.
- Dumbarton at home: 4 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats in 8, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.63 per game
- Banks O'Dee away: 1 win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, conceding 3.14 goals per game
- Banks O'Dee scored in 5 of their 7 away matches
- Dumbarton won the only recent meeting 3-2 at home in the 2023 Scottish Cup
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDumbartonEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Banks O'Dee concede early on the road while Dumbarton have led at the break in their last two home games.
- Dumbarton home first halves: 0.50 scored and 0.88 conceded per game
- Banks O'Dee away first halves: 0.71 scored and 1.71 conceded per game
- Dumbarton led at half-time in their last two home league games
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDumbartonEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dumbarton have a positive second-half record at home while Banks O'Dee concede after the break on the road.
- Dumbarton home second halves: 0.88 scored and 0.75 conceded per game
- Banks O'Dee away second halves: 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded per game
- Dumbarton scored 2 second-half goals in their last home game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDumbartonEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Dumbarton's home record and Banks O'Dee's heavy away concession rate make the hosts clear favourites. Banks O'Dee have drawn twice on the road and held a League Two side in this competition.
- Dumbarton at home: 4 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats in 8, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.63 per game
- Banks O'Dee away: 1 win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, conceding 3.14 goals per game
- Dumbarton home: 1 draw in 8 games
- Banks O'Dee away: 2 draws in 7
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDumbarton or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Banks O'Dee concede early on the road while Dumbarton have led at the break in their last two home games. Dumbarton's home first halves are low-scoring, so going into the break level is a strong possibility.
- Dumbarton home first halves: 0.50 scored and 0.88 conceded per game
- Banks O'Dee away first halves: 0.71 scored and 1.71 conceded per game
- Dumbarton home first halves average 1.38 total goals
- Banks O'Dee away first halves average 2.43 total goals
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDumbarton or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score and concede regularly, which points to three or more goals.
- Dumbarton home: 1.38 scored and 1.63 conceded per game
- Banks O'Dee away: 1.86 scored and 3.14 conceded per game
- Both teams scored in 4 of Banks O'Dee's last 6 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net, and Banks O'Dee's away matches feature goals at both ends.
- Dumbarton scored in 6 of 8 home games
- Banks O'Dee scored in 5 of 7 away games
- Both teams scored in 4 of Banks O'Dee's last 6 matches
- Banks O'Dee concede 3.14 per away game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dumbarton's recent home scoring and Banks O'Dee's away concession rate favour the hosts scoring twice.
- Dumbarton scored 2 or more in each of their last three home games (3, 2 and 2)
- Dumbarton's home average is 1.38 goals per game
- Banks O'Dee concede 3.14 goals per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonDumbarton over 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dumbarton's home clean sheets and Banks O'Dee's away blanks point to the visitors being held to one goal or fewer.
- Banks O'Dee scored in 5 of 7 away matches but failed to score in the other 2
- Dumbarton kept 3 clean sheets in 8 home games
- Banks O'Dee scored no goals at Forres in their most recent away match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBanks O'Dee under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dumbarton concede in most home games and Banks O'Dee score in most away games.
- Dumbarton conceded in 5 of 8 home games
- Banks O'Dee scored in 5 of 7 away games
- Dumbarton concede 0.88 first-half goals per home game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBanks O'Dee to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Banks O'Dee concede heavily on the road and Dumbarton score in most home games.
- Banks O'Dee conceded in 6 of 7 away games at 3.14 per game
- Dumbarton scored in 6 of 8 home games
- Dumbarton scored 7 goals in their last 3 home games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDumbarton to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most home matches see Dumbarton concede or fail to win, so a clean-sheet win is the minority case.
- Dumbarton conceded in 5 of 8 home games
- Banks O'Dee scored in 5 of 7 away games
- Dumbarton won only 4 of 8 home games
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in both teams' relevant matches produce goals regularly.
- Dumbarton home first halves average 1.38 total goals
- Banks O'Dee away first halves average 2.43 total goals
- Banks O'Dee concede 1.71 first-half goals per away game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, making a first-half both-score unlikely.
- Dumbarton home first-half goals: 0.50 for and 0.88 against
- Banks O'Dee away first-half goals: 0.71 for and 1.71 against
- Banks O'Dee failed to score a first-half goal in 2 of their last 3 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in both teams' matches produce goals at a rate that favours two or more.
- Dumbarton home second halves average 1.63 total goals
- Banks O'Dee away second halves average 2.57 total goals
- Dumbarton concede 1.40 second-half goals per game overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W3-2DumbartonvBanks O' DeeOct 28, 2023FAC

5 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Dumbarton

W3-0SpartansSep 19LEA

L1-3StranraerSep 12LEA

L1-6Cove RangersSep 8CHA

W2-1Elgin CitySep 5LEA

L0-2Annan AthleticAug 29LEA

D2-2Celtic IIAug 25CHA

L1-3Kelty HeartsAug 22LEA

L0-3Edinburgh CityAug 15LEA

L1-3Airdrie UnitedAug 11CHA

W1-0ClydeAug 8LEA

L0-2Stirling AlbionAug 1LEA

W2-0Cove RangersJul 25LEA

L3-5East KilbrideJul 18LEA

L1-4DunfermlineJul 14LEA

L0-4ST MirrenJul 11LEA

Banks O'Dee

L0-3Forres MechanicsSep 19FOO

W4-1KeithSep 16FOO

D2-2Nairn CountySep 12FOO

D1-1Forfar AthleticSep 8CHA

W5-0RothesSep 5FOO

W6-3InvergordonAug 29FOO

L0-4Ross CountyAug 25CHA

D2-2HuntlyAug 22FOO

W1-0Turriff UnitedAug 19FOO

L2-4Brora RangersAug 15FOO

L1-5PeterheadAug 11CHA

D1-1Strathspey ThistleAug 8FOO

D1-1Inverurie Loco WorksAug 5FOO

L2-7Buckie ThistleAug 1FOO

W2-0Wick AcademyJul 25FOO

Squad & Injuries

Dumbarton

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

Banks O'Dee

16 available

Attackers3

Midfielders9

Defenders3

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Dumbarton or Draw

Dumbarton

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals8 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Dumbarton

Banks O'Dee

Squad & Injuries

Dumbarton

Banks O'Dee