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Predictions graded

Czechia1Croatia2

HT 0–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges5–363%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 5–16On targetOn target 2–5CornersCorners 1–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 08:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Croatia carry the stronger recent record into Prague but start under a new coach, Slaven Bilić, at the front of a four-match, 11-day block; Czechia open Santi Denia's tenure with seven forced squad changes.

Croatia are the likelier winners, though 2.1 is a short price and 1.33 for draw-or-Croatia offers nothing. The worthwhile prices are a goalless first half at 3.1, over 10.5 corners at 2.4 and both teams not to score at 2.2.

Context

Croatia begin a new cycle with a coach who has had one camp to install his ideas, so the Prague match is the first competitive evidence of what changes. Bilić has said he researched Czechia's Spanish coach, watched their World Cup matches and will not underestimate them, while calling three games in seven days against Spain and England demanding. That points to a settled first-choice approach rather than experimentation. Limitation: with no match under him yet, his shape for this fixture is inferred from squad choices and camp reports rather than demonstrated play.
- The Croatian FA confirmed on 7 September 2026 that Slaven Bilić had returned as Croatia head coach and named his first squad for the Nations League matches against Czechia, Spain and England.
- Bilić previously coached Croatia from 2006 to 2012, returning after Zlatko Dalić's nine-year spell in charge.
- Croatia held their first training session under Bilić in Rijeka on 21 September 2026, with all 27 players in camp before travelling to Prague on the Friday.
- Bilić said on 7 September 2026 that he had researched Czechia's Spanish coach and watched their World Cup matches, and on 21 September 2026 that Czechia are important opponents Croatia must not underestimate.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Czechia are being rebuilt inside a single camp, so selection, shape and the roles of newcomers are all being set for the first time in a competitive match. Denia's opening squad leaned on familiar names, but a wave of withdrawals forced replacements into the group, which makes the XI in Prague harder to read than the squad list suggests. He has also said Czechia will go for three points at home in front of their own fans rather than treating Croatia as damage limitation. Limitation: no match under Denia exists to show whether that intent produces a more aggressive setup.
- The Czech FA published Denia's first senior squad on 15 September 2026 and held a press conference around his call-ups, including a first senior call-up for Matěj Radosta, on 18 September 2026.
- The Czech FA ran its first training session under Denia on 21 September 2026 and a third on 23 September 2026, three days before the opener.
- ČT sport described Denia as the Czech national team's new coach on 23 September 2026 while reporting the squad's seventh forced change.
- Denia said on 23 September 2026 that Czechia are focused only on Croatia and will try to win three points at home in front of their own fans.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest
The withdrawals remove a chunk of Czechia's experienced core and its only specialist centre-forward, and the replacements come from outside the World Cup group, so the spine is being rebuilt days before kickoff. ČT sport counted the Ryneš swap as the seventh forced change of the window, which shows how unsettled the squad still is. Against a Croatia side expected to field close to its strongest XI, that makes Czechia's starting line-up and bench harder to project. Limitation: the incoming players fill the same positions, so the practical cost depends on how many of them actually start.
- Slavia Prague said on 21 September 2026 that Tomáš Chorý, Lukáš Provod, David Jurásek, Tomáš Vlček and David Zima would not join the national team camp for health reasons and would continue treatment with the club.
- The Czech FA said on 21 September 2026 that Chorý and Vlček had left the squad and were replaced by Václav Sejk and Martin Vitík.
- ČT sport reported on 23 September 2026 that injured Sparta Prague left-back Matěj Ryneš was replaced by Ondřej Zmrzlý of Górnik Zabrze, calling it the squad's seventh forced change.
- Totální Fotbal reported on 18 September 2026 that Chorý was Czechia's only out-and-out striker in the original squad, with Patrik Schick unavailable and Ryan Naderi not yet cleared.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest
The projection has Croatia starting the opener close to full strength rather than saving legs for a run of four games in 11 days, which fits Bilić's own framing of Czechia as a match Croatia cannot treat lightly. The chosen front line pairs a target centre-forward in Budimir with three creators, while the alternatives named are wingers and a second striker rather than defensive cover. Limitation: it is a newspaper projection rather than a confirmed team sheet, and it is the only evidence so far of how Bilić wants Croatia to set up.
- Sportske novosti's projected Croatia XI for the Czechia match, reported on 23 September 2026, is Livaković; Stanišić, Vušković, Gvardiol, Perišić; Modrić, Kovačić; Vlašić, P. Sučić, Baturina; Budimir.
- The same report named Marco Pašalić and Luka Sučić as options in place of Vlašić, and Matanović and Beljo as alternatives to Budimir up front.
- CroatiaFooty and TheCroatian both relayed the projection on 23 September 2026, describing Bilić as expected to use his strongest line-up against Czechia.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Croatia have the stronger overall record and squad, and Czechia are significantly weakened.
- Croatia overall competitive record: 8 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from 11.
- Croatia average 2.27 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game overall.
- Czechia are missing key attackers including Schick and Chory.
- Croatia won the most recent H2H in Croatia 5-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCroatiaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Czechia's strong first-half defense and Croatia's slow away starts make a level first half likely.
- Czechia home first half: 0.0 goals conceded per game over 6 matches.
- Croatia away first half ended level in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
- Last H2H first half was 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest second-half scoring records, making a level second half plausible.
- Croatia away second half: 0.67 goals conceded per game.
- Czechia home second half: 0.5 goals scored per game.
- Last H2H second half was 0-0.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
The recent H2H record and cautious starts under new coaches make a draw plausible. Croatia have the stronger overall record and squad, and Czechia are significantly weakened.
- Last H2H was a 0-0 draw in Prague in October 2025.
- Three of the last four H2H meetings ended as draws.
- Croatia overall competitive record: 8 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from 11.
- Croatia average 2.27 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CroatiaEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Czechia often start strongly at home and have not conceded a first-half goal in their last six. Czechia's strong first-half defense and Croatia's slow away starts make a level first half likely.
- Czechia home first half: 1.33 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game.
- Croatia away first half: 0.67 goals conceded per game.
- Czechia home first half: 0.0 goals conceded per game over 6 matches.
- Croatia away first half ended level in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCzechia or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams have attacking quality and Croatia's recent games have often produced three or more goals.
- Croatia overall average 2.27 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
- Czechia overall average 1.82 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game.
- Five of Croatia's last six matches had over 2.5 goals.
- H2H in June 2025 ended Croatia 5-1 Czechia.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have scored regularly in competitive matches.
- Czechia scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches.
- Croatia scored in 10 of 11 competitive matches.
- Croatia away scored in 5 of 6 matches.
- Czechia home scored in 4 of 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have first-half scoring potential, especially Czechia at home.
- Czechia home first half average 1.33 goals scored.
- Croatia away first half total goals average 1.34.
- Two of Czechia's last four home matches had over 0.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Czechia's first-half defense at home has been excellent.
- Czechia home first half: 0.0 goals conceded per game over 6 matches.
- Croatia away first half: 0.67 goals scored per game.
- Czechia conceded no first-half goals in their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-half averages point to a tight period.
- Czechia home second half total goals average 1.33.
- Croatia away second half total goals average 1.34.
- Last H2H second half was 0-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Croatia's attack is likely to find a goal.
- Croatia away scored in 5 of 6 matches.
- Croatia overall scored in 10 of 11 competitive matches.
- Czechia home conceded in 3 of 6 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCroatia to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Czechia have usually found a goal at home.
- Czechia home scored in 4 of 6 matches.
- Croatia away conceded in 3 of 6 matches.
- Czechia scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCzechia to scoreEstimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Both teams average around 10-12 total corners in relevant splits.
- Czechia home corners average 6.83, opponent corners 3.33.
- Croatia away corners average 5.83, opponent corners 6.17.
- Last H2H had 11 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have consistently stayed below 34 total shots.
- Czechia last 6 shots totals: 24, 31, 22, 25, 20, 21.
- Croatia last 6: 28, 14, 14, 32, 30, 24.
- All these recent totals are under 33.5.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 33.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches show shots on target totals usually below 13.
- Czechia last 6 shots on target totals: 6, 7, 10, 10, 4, 4.
- Croatia last 6: 9, 5, 3, 16, 12, 8.
- Only one recent match had over 12.5 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance85%

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 1W

D0-0CzechiavCroatiaOct 9, 2025WOR

L5-1CroatiavCzechiaJun 9, 2025WOR

D1-1CroatiavCzechiaJun 18, 2021EUR

D2-2CzechiavCroatiaJun 17, 2016EUR

Croatia unbeaten in 4 meetings3 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Czechia Relegation	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
2	Croatia Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Czechia leads the leagueCroatia leads the leagueCzechia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Czechia

L0-3MexicoJun 25WOR

D1-1South AfricaJun 18WOR

L1-2South KoreaJun 12WOR

W3-1GuatemalaJun 5FRI

W2-1KosovoMay 31FRI

W6-0GibraltarNov 17WOR

W1-0San MarinoNov 13FRI

L1-2Faroe IslandsOct 12WOR

D0-0CroatiaOct 9WOR

D1-1Saudi ArabiaSep 8FRI

W2-0MontenegroSep 5WOR

L1-5CroatiaJun 9WOR

W2-0MontenegroJun 6WOR

W4-0GibraltarMar 25WOR

W2-1Faroe IslandsMar 22WOR

Croatia

L0-2BelgiumJun 2FRI

L1-3BrazilApr 1FRI

W2-1ColombiaMar 26FRI

W3-2MontenegroNov 17WOR

W3-1Faroe IslandsNov 14WOR

W3-0GibraltarOct 12WOR

D0-0CzechiaOct 9WOR

W4-0MontenegroSep 8WOR

W1-0Faroe IslandsSep 5WOR

W5-1CzechiaJun 9WOR

Squad & Injuries

Czechia

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Croatia

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 10.5

No

Czechia

No

Draw or Croatia

Over 2.5

Croatia

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 7 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Czechia

Croatia

Squad & Injuries

Czechia

Croatia