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Predictions graded

Cumbernauld Colts2St. Mirren B4

HT 0–3Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 04:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Cumbernauld Colts are still without a win in the KDM Evolution Trophy and have not kept a clean sheet in 14 competitive matches, but they have drawn four of seven at home.

St Mirren B have lost their last two ties in the competition yet scored five away at East Fife on 25 August. Colts to win or draw at 1.95 and Colts to win at 3.4 both hold up; a St Mirren B win at 1.78 does not.

Context

Colts have taken points from full-time opposition in the trophy while being beaten comfortably at home by Kelty Hearts, and both points so far arrived through late goals, so the St Mirren B game tests a side that stays in matches more than it controls them. Their own account framed the Stirling result as a point earned against 'a strong side', and Stirling had won every competition game before that night. Because no club has published a league-phase table or qualification scenario, the practical weight of those two points is a competition-context question rather than something that can be quantified as a target.
- Cumbernauld Colts' own post after the 22 September game says the 1-1 draw at Stirling Albion earned 'our second point of the campaign'.
- Colts levelled at Forthbank with a late goal from Thomas Horn, according to the club's match updates.
- Stirling Observer reports the draw was the first points the Binos had dropped in this season's competition.
- League-phase results posted on 9 September record Cumbernauld Colts losing 0-3 at home to Kelty Hearts.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 04:13 · Europe/Bucharest
St Mirren's first team has been giving competitive minutes to academy players this month and also returned Josh Farquhar from a loan, which cuts both ways for the B side: the same pipeline supplies the group, but senior and loan decisions can remove individuals from a given trophy XI. The club has published no B-team squad or selection update for Broadwood, so Tuesday's line-up is the only concrete guide to who is available. That variability matters because St Mirren B already won 5-2 at East Fife and 4-1 at Clyde in the league phase, results achieved by squads that were not necessarily identical.
- St Mirren B led at Clydebank inside four minutes through Struan Thompson and lost 2-1, per the club's match updates and Clydebank's full-time post.
- Paisley reporter David Irvine reported that first-team forward Eseosa Sule started for the Young Buddies at Holm Park.
- St Mirren's official account notes academy graduate Josh Farquhar came off the bench for his first-team debut on 19 September.
- Clydebank won 2-1 with second-half goals from Rossiter and McLaughlin after trailing at half time.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 04:13 · Europe/Bucharest
It means the visitors arrive at a ground where the home side has conceded every time out this season, at 2.29 goals per game overall and 2.57 across seven home matches. Colts do not fold quietly, though: they scored in six of those seven home games, drew four of them and beat Gretna 2008 3-2 on 15 September, so the pattern is high-scoring rather than one-sided.
- Cumbernauld Colts' 14 competitive matches, 25 July to 22 September 2026: 2 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses, scored in 10 of 14, conceded in all 14, no clean sheets.
- Goals conceded average 2.29 per game across the 14 matches and 2.57 per game across their seven home matches.
- Both teams scored in 10 of the 14 matches.
St Mirren B can score heavily on the road in this competition: they were ahead at East Fife at half-time and added three second-half goals in that 5-2 win. Their results in the same competition have since swung the other way, with 0-1 and 1-2 defeats, so the threat is real but not reliable from week to week. Against a Colts side that has scored in six of seven home matches but conceded in all 14, that range is what makes the tie awkward.
- Challenge Cup, 25 August 2026, away: St Mirren B 5-2 East Fife.
- They led 2-1 at half-time, scored three goals in the second half and conceded once after the break.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.13fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88.5%

−8.5ppshort

Goals before the break are the norm for both sides, with Colts especially likely to score early at home.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

−8.0ppshort

Neither side keeps clean sheets and both score often, so three goals is the more likely outcome.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

−4.9ppshort

Both sides score regularly and both concede almost every week, so each finding the net is the likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.40
The read
Colts score regularly on their own ground and meet a young visiting side that has just lost twice in this competition.
- Colts are 1W-4D-2L at home with 2.0 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per home game
- Colts have scored in six of seven home matches but have no clean sheet in 14 competitive games
- St Mirren B lost their two most recent Challenge Cup ties, 0-1 at Airdrie and 1-2 at Clydebank
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCumbernauld ColtsEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colts start strongly at home while the visitors have scored fewer than one first-half goal per away game.
- Colts average 1.29 first-half goals at home and 0.86 conceded
- Colts led at half time in three of their last six matches
- St Mirren B average 0.69 first-half goals per away match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCumbernauld ColtsEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colts' home matches tilt toward the visitors after the break while St Mirren B finish strongly in this competition.
- Colts concede 1.71 second-half goals per home match, their heaviest half
- St Mirren B scored three second-half goals at East Fife and four at Clyde
- St Mirren B score 1.08 second-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSt. Mirren BEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colts score regularly on their own ground and meet a young visiting side that has just lost twice in this competition. St Mirren B have scored freely away in this cup and face a home defence that has not kept a single clean sheet.
- Colts are 1W-4D-2L at home with 2.0 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per home game
- Colts have scored in six of seven home matches but have no clean sheet in 14 competitive games
- St Mirren B won 4-1 at Clyde and 5-2 at East Fife in this season's competition
- St Mirren B average 1.77 scored and 2.54 conceded per away match
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCumbernauld Colts or St. Mirren BEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colts start strongly at home while the visitors have scored fewer than one first-half goal per away game. The visitors have often reached the interval level, and first-half scoring for both sides is moderate rather than heavy.
- Colts average 1.29 first-half goals at home and 0.86 conceded
- Colts led at half time in three of their last six matches
- St Mirren B were level at half time in three of their last six matches
- St Mirren B score 0.69 and concede 1.0 first-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostCumbernauld Colts or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Neither side keeps clean sheets and both score often, so three goals is the more likely outcome.
- Colts home matches average 4.57 total goals (2.0 scored, 2.57 conceded)
- St Mirren B away matches average 4.31 total goals (1.77 scored, 2.54 conceded)
- Nine of the last 12 matches involving these teams had three or more goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both sides score regularly and both concede almost every week, so each finding the net is the likely outcome.
- Colts have scored in 10 of 14 and conceded in all 14 matches
- St Mirren B have scored in 11 of 14 and conceded in 13 of 14
- Both teams scored in six of Colts' seven home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite a high home average, Colts' recent scoring has been uneven and often limited to a single goal.
- Colts scored one goal or none in three of their last six matches
- Colts' 14-match scoring average is 1.57 goals per game
- St Mirren B have kept one clean sheet in 14 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCumbernauld Colts under 1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent away returns for St Mirren B have largely been one goal or fewer despite the chances Colts give up.
- St Mirren B scored one or none in four of their last six matches
- St Mirren B's 14-match scoring average is 1.71 goals per game
- Colts concede 2.57 goals per home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSt. Mirren B under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colts have not stopped anyone from scoring all season, so the visitors are expected to find the net.
- Colts have conceded in all 14 competitive matches this season
- Colts concede 2.29 goals per game overall and 2.57 at home
- St Mirren B have scored in 11 of 14 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt. Mirren B to scoreEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors have not kept an away clean sheet and concede regularly, so Colts are likely to score.
- St Mirren B have no clean sheet in 13 away matches
- Colts have scored in 10 of 14 matches overall
- St Mirren B concede 2.54 goals per away match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCumbernauld Colts to scoreEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Goals before the break are the norm for both sides, with Colts especially likely to score early at home.
- Colts' home matches average 2.15 first-half goals in total
- St Mirren B's away matches average 1.69 first-half goals in total
- Ten of the last 12 matches involving these teams had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors rarely score before the break, so a first-half goal for both sides is the less likely outcome.
- St Mirren B scored no first-half goal in four of their last six matches
- Colts' home first-half goals against average is 0.86
- St Mirren B average 0.69 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides concede late and take part in second halves that often produce more than one goal.
- Colts' home second halves average 2.43 goals in total
- St Mirren B's away second halves average 2.62 goals in total
- Five of the last 12 matches involving these teams had two or more second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Recent Form

Cumbernauld Colts

D1-1Stirling AlbionSep 22CHA

L1-2Albion RoversSep 19FOO

W3-2Gretna 2008Sep 15FOO

D4-4 Johnstone BurghSep 12FOO

L0-3Kelty HeartsSep 8CHA

W3-1Troon FCAug 29FOO

D1-1Kilmarnock IIAug 25CHA

D2-2Dalbeattie StarAug 22FOO

D3-3Gretna 2008Aug 15FOO

L0-4Queen of the SouthAug 11CHA

L0-1Auchinleck TalbotAug 8FOO

D2-2RenfrewAug 1FOO

L2-4Kilwinning RangersJul 28FOO

L0-2Largs ThistleJul 25FOO

L0-2ClydebankJul 5FRI

St. Mirren B

L1-2ClydebankSep 22CHA

L0-1Airdrie UnitedSep 8CHA

W5-2East FifeAug 25CHA

W4-1ClydeAug 11CHA

D4-4East KilbrideJul 7FRI

L0-2StranraerNov 11CHA

L1-2Kelty HeartsOct 11CHA

L1-3Hamilton AcademicalSep 24CHA

D2-2Annan AthleticSep 6CHA

W3-2Alloa AthleticAug 26CHA

L2-4DumbartonAug 12CHA

W3-2Berwick RangersJul 30CHA

L0-6Albion RoversSep 4CHA

L1-4WrexhamOct 12CHA

W1-0Stirling AlbionSep 7CHA

Squad & Injuries

Cumbernauld Colts

29 available

Attackers4

Midfielders5

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

St. Mirren B

3 available

Attackers1

Midfielders2

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Cumbernauld Colts or Draw

Cumbernauld Colts

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Yes

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 9 landed

Recent Form

Cumbernauld Colts

St. Mirren B

Squad & Injuries

Cumbernauld Colts

St. Mirren B