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Predictions graded

Albania2Belarus0

HT 2–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 20–8On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 04:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Albania open Group 1 in Tirana with a new coach and a thin attack against a Belarus side without a win in seven competitive matches.

Albania should win, but 1.48 asks more than their one-goal-a-game record supports. The quoted prices with something behind them are over 8.5 corners at 1.62, over 2.5 goals at 2.2, both teams to score at 2.4, no goal for both before half-time at 1.1 and Albania ahead at half-time at 2.0.

Context

Albania go into this fixture under a new head coach: Rolando Maran was appointed in May 2026 after Sylvinho's departure, and the Belarus match is his first competitive fixture in charge. His first competitive squad carries visible fingerprints, with recalls for Ernest Muçi, Iván Balliu, Marash Kumbulla and Rey Manaj and a first call-up for Hearts winger Sabah Kerjota. Albanian coverage of the squad announcement describes a stated preference for a more attacking style and sets winning the group as the immediate objective. Because Maran has no competitive match in charge on record, how much of that rework shows up in selection and shape against Belarus is unresolved.
- Rolando Maran became Albania's head coach in May 2026, succeeding Sylvinho.
- Maran's first competitive squad recalled Ernest Muçi, Iván Balliu, Mario Dajsinani, Marash Kumbulla and Rey Manaj.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Albania's amended squad drops Qazim Laçi, injured in Rizespor's last match, and Adrion Pajaziti, forced off for Hajduk Split against Rijeka with a muscle tear reported to sideline him around three weeks. Feta Fetai, captain of the Under-21s, and Dinamo City's Klevi Qefalija come in, leaving Maran fewer established central-midfield options for the opener. A national-team account separately listed Juljan Shehu as still in recovery, although his club Widzew Łódź included him among players called up for this window. The change comes from an amended squad list rather than a federation medical statement, so the intended midfield pairing is not settled.
- Qazim Laçi and Adrion Pajaziti were removed from Albania's Nations League squad through injury.
- Feta Fetai and Klevi Qefalija were added to the squad in their place.
- Adrion Pajaziti was forced off for Hajduk Split against Rijeka and tests in Tirana revealed a muscle tear expected to keep him out around three weeks.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:27 · Europe/Bucharest
With Thomas Strakosha injured, Albania have recalled Etrit Berisha after a two-year absence to cover the goalkeeping position, and Mario Dajsinani has also returned to the squad. Strakosha's absence removes the most established name from the group available for a home opener. The report reaches X through the Albanian outlet Telesport rather than a federation medical bulletin, so which goalkeeper actually starts against Belarus is not established.
- Albania goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha is unavailable for the September Nations League window through injury.
- Etrit Berisha has been recalled after two years, replacing the injured Strakosha.
- T. Strakosha started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- A. Sherri started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when T. Strakosha did not start.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Striker Armando Broja is not in Rolando Maran's squad for the Nations League window that opens against Belarus, one of the two omissions Albanian coverage identified as most significant. His absence trims the attacking options available for a home opener in a group Albania are aiming to win. No reason has been given and no injury has been reported, so the omission is unexplained in the available sources.
- Armando Broja was left out of Albania's squad for the September Nations League fixtures.
- A. Broja started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:27 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Albania have the stronger recent record and home advantage, while Belarus have not won a competitive match in this window and concede heavily.
- Albania are 4-2-4 in 10 competitive matches with 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
- Albania's home record is 2-1-2 with 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game and three clean sheets in five.
- Belarus have no wins in seven competitive matches (0-3-4) and concede 2.57 goals per game in that run.
- Belarus lost 0-6 and 1-5 in recent competitive matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlbaniaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Belarus have not scored a first-half goal in this sample, while Albania have a modest but consistent first-half scoring record.
- Albania average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.4 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Belarus have scored 0.0 first-half goals in seven competitive matches.
- Belarus concede 1.71 first-half goals per game.
- Belarus's away first-half record is 0.0 goals scored and 1.75 conceded in four matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAlbaniaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been closely matched after half-time, and a second-half draw is the most common outcome in their recent matches.
- Albania average 0.3 second-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Belarus average 0.71 second-half goals for and 0.86 against.
- Albania have drawn the second half in three of their last six competitive matches.
- Belarus have drawn the second half in three of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albania have the stronger recent record and home advantage, while Belarus have not won a competitive match in this window and concede heavily. Both teams have had low-scoring or mixed recent results, and Albania's modest attack could allow Belarus to hold on for a draw.
- Albania are 4-2-4 in 10 competitive matches with 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
- Albania's home record is 2-1-2 with 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game and three clean sheets in five.
- Albania have drawn two of their last six competitive matches.
- Belarus have drawn three of seven competitive matches, including 0-0 and 2-2 in their last two.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAlbania or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Belarus have not scored a first-half goal in this sample, while Albania have a modest but consistent first-half scoring record. Albania often start with a goal, but their low first-half scoring rate and Belarus's tendency to sit deep could produce a level first half.
- Albania average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.4 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Belarus have scored 0.0 first-half goals in seven competitive matches.
- Albania average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.4 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAlbania or DrawEstimated chance88%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Belarus's defensive record and away matches point to a high total, though Albania's low-scoring home games pull the other way.
- Belarus's competitive matches average 3.29 total goals per game (0.71 scored, 2.57 conceded).
- Belarus's away matches average 3.75 total goals per game (1.25 scored, 2.5 conceded).
- Albania's home matches average 1.8 total goals per game (1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded).
- Four of Belarus's last six competitive matches had three or more total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Albania's home defence is the stronger side of this matchup, and Belarus's overall scoring rate is low enough that one team may be kept out.
- Albania kept clean sheets in five of ten competitive matches and three of five at home.
- Belarus have scored only 0.71 goals per game across seven competitive matches.
- Belarus failed to score in three of seven competitive matches.
- Albania conceded 0.8 goals per game at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Albania have not scored more than once in any of their last six matches, making two goals against Belarus a less likely outcome.
- Albania have scored 0.9 goals per game in 10 competitive matches.
- Albania's home matches average 1.0 goal scored per game.
- Albania scored one goal or fewer in each of their last six competitive matches.
- Belarus have kept one clean sheet in seven competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAlbania under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Belarus rarely score more than once, and Albania's home defence limits opponents to 0.8 goals per game.
- Belarus have scored one goal or fewer in five of their last six competitive matches.
- Belarus's overall scoring average is 0.71 goals per game.
- Albania concede 0.8 goals per game at home.
- Belarus have not scored more than one goal in any away match except the 2-2 draw at Denmark.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBelarus under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Belarus concede regularly before half-time, and Albania have scored in the first half in four of their last six matches.
- Belarus have conceded 1.71 first-half goals per game in seven competitive matches.
- Albania average 0.6 first-half goals per game.
- Belarus have conceded first-half goals in five of their last six competitive matches.
- Belarus have scored 0.0 first-half goals in seven competitive matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Belarus have not scored a first-half goal in any competitive match in this sample, making it highly likely that at least one team is kept out before half-time.
- Belarus have scored 0.0 first-half goals in seven competitive matches.
- Belarus's away first-half record is 0.0 goals scored in four matches.
- Albania average 0.4 first-half goals against.
- Albania have conceded a first-half goal in one of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance94%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Albania's recent second halves have been low-scoring, and their home matches average fewer than one second-half goal.
- Albania's home matches average 0.8 second-half goals.
- Albania have seen under 1.5 second-half goals in four of their last six competitive matches.
- Belarus's overall second-half total is 1.57 goals per game (0.71 scored, 0.86 conceded).
- Belarus's last match had no second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Belarus's matches produce a high number of corners, and Albania's recent games are near the line, making over 8.5 the more likely outcome.
- Belarus's away matches average 12.75 total corners (4.75 for, 8.0 against).
- Belarus's competitive matches average 10.57 total corners (3.86 for, 6.71 against).
- Albania's home matches average 6.8 total corners (3.6 for, 3.2 against).
- Albania's last six competitive matches averaged 8.17 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Belarus's matches consistently produce high shot counts, and Albania's home games are also around the line, making over 18.5 likely.
- Albania's home matches average 20.2 total shots (10.8 for, 9.4 against).
- Belarus's away matches average 32.75 total shots (11.25 for, 21.5 against).
- Five of Albania's last six competitive matches had over 18.5 total shots.
- All six of Belarus's last six competitive matches had over 18.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 18.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Belarus's matches produce many shots on target, and Albania's home games are above the line, making over 5.5 the more likely outcome.
- Albania's home matches average 7.6 total shots on target (3.8 for, 3.8 against).
- Belarus's away matches average 11.25 total shots on target (3.0 for, 8.25 against).
- Four of Albania's last six competitive matches had over 5.5 total shots on target.
- Five of Belarus's last six competitive matches had over 5.5 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance78%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 0W

W3-2AlbaniavBelarusNov 18, 2020UEF

W0-2BelarusvAlbaniaSep 4, 2020UEF

3.5 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Albania Promotion	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
3	Belarus	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Albania leads the leagueBelarus leads the league

Recent Form

Albania

L0-1LuxembourgJun 6FRI

L0-1IsraelJun 3FRI

L0-1UkraineMar 31FRI

L1-2PolandMar 26WOR

L0-2EnglandNov 16WOR

W1-0AndorraNov 13WOR

W4-2JordanOct 14FRI

W1-0SerbiaOct 11WOR

W1-0LatviaSep 9WOR

W1-0GibraltarSep 4FRI

D1-1LatviaJun 10WOR

D0-0SerbiaJun 7WOR

W3-0AndorraMar 24WOR

L0-2EnglandMar 21WOR

L1-2UkraineNov 19UEF

Belarus

D2-2Burkina FasoJun 9FRI

W4-1SyriaJun 5FRI

W2-1ArmeniaMar 29FRI

W1-0CyprusMar 26FRI

D0-0GreeceNov 18WOR

D2-2DenmarkNov 15WOR

L1-2ScotlandOct 12WOR

L0-6DenmarkOct 9WOR

L0-2ScotlandSep 8WOR

L1-5GreeceSep 5WOR

L1-4RussiaJun 10FRI

W4-1KazakhstanJun 5FRI

W2-0AzerbaijanMar 25FRI

W5-0TajikistanMar 20FRI

D1-1BulgariaNov 18UEF

Squad & Injuries

Albania

34 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper6

Belarus

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 8.5

Over 2.5

Yes

No

Albania

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Albania

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Albania

Belarus

Squad & Injuries

Albania

Belarus