Italy00 – 2Belgium2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Italy have the better recent record in this fixture and home advantage in Rome, which makes them the single most likely winner by a narrow margin.

• Italy are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Belgium: four wins and one draw.
• Italy's home competitive record is 4 wins and 3 defeats in 7, averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded.
• Belgium won 6, drew 4 and lost 1 of 11 competitive matches, with four draws showing how often they are held.
• Belgium's 3.18 goals per competitive game is boosted by a 7-0 win over Liechtenstein and a 5-1 win over New Zealand.

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostItalyEstimated chance38%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30

The read

First halves involving these teams are usually tight, making a level score at the break the most likely single result.

• Italy average 0.69 first-half goals in competitive matches; Belgium average 1.09.
• Italy were level at half-time in three of their last six games and Belgium in two of six.
• Both teams' first-half goals-against figures are below 0.7 per game.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Second halves tend to be open for both teams, leaving the post-break scoreline finely balanced.

• Italy's home second halves average 2.43 total goals; Belgium's away second halves average 2.83.
• Both teams score the bulk of their goals in the second half, spreading the scoring between them.
• Neither side won the second half in Italy's most recent home game against Norway, where Italy lost the second period 0-4.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Italy start games steadily at home and have not trailed at the break recently, giving them a modest first-half edge. First halves involving these teams are usually tight, making a level score at the break the most likely single result.

• Italy's home first halves average 0.71 goals scored and 0.29 conceded.
• Italy led at half-time in three of their last six matches and never trailed at the break.
• Italy average 0.69 first-half goals in competitive matches; Belgium average 1.09.
• Italy were level at half-time in three of their last six games and Belgium in two of six.

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostItaly or DrawEstimated chance73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Both teams score at a high rate and neither defence has been watertight, so three goals or more is the more likely outcome.

• Italy's home matches average 2.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded; Belgium's away matches average 3.5 scored and 1.17 conceded.
• Four of Italy's last six competitive matches and four of Belgium's last six produced three or more goals.
• Both teams score in more than half of their matches: Belgium in 9 of 11 competitive games, Italy in 12 of 13.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62

The read

Both sides have scored in nearly every recent match, so a clean sheet for either team looks unlikely.

• Belgium scored in all six of their recent away matches.
• Italy scored in all seven of their home competitive matches.
• Both teams scored in five of Belgium's six away matches and in three of Italy's last seven home games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Italy's home defence limits opponents' chances enough to make a Belgium return of one goal or fewer the likelier outcome.

• Italy kept four clean sheets in seven home competitive matches.
• Italy allow only 3.57 shots on target per home match.
• Belgium were held to 0-0 by Iran and 1-1 by Egypt in their most recent competitive window.

BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBelgium under 1.5Estimated chance58%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Goals cluster after half-time for both teams, so two or more in the second period is the likelier outcome.

• Italy's home matches average 2.43 second-half goals; Belgium's away matches average 2.83.
• Italy's last six matches all produced two or more second-half goals.
• Nine of the last 12 combined matches had two or more goals after half-time.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Corner totals in these teams' recent matches have mostly landed under 11.

• Italy's competitive matches average 6.31 corners for and 4.0 against, a combined 10.31.
• Belgium's six away matches averaged 10.8 corners in total.
• Only five of the last 12 combined matches reached 11 corners.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams suppress opponent shot counts, and their recent matches have all fallen short of 40 total shots.

• Eleven of the last 12 combined matches for these teams produced fewer than 40 shots.
• Italy's last six matches averaged 27.3 shots in total; Belgium's averaged 28.2.
• Italy concede 9.6 shots per home game and Belgium 8.0 per away game.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Combined shots on target in these teams' recent matches have almost always stayed below 14.

• Ten of the last 12 combined matches for these teams produced 13 or fewer shots on target.
• Italy's home matches average 10.4 shots on target in total; Belgium's away matches average 10.0.
• Italy allow 3.57 shots on target at home and Belgium 3.0 away.