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Predictions graded

Haiti3Trinidad and Tobago2

HT 1–1Fri 25 Sept 2026, 00:20 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 14:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Haiti open their Nations League campaign under a new coach with an overhauled squad, while Trinidad and Tobago have won once in seven away matches.

A tight, low-scoring game with Haiti the likelier winner is the plain read. No quoted price is worthwhile: Haiti to win at 1.78, under 2.5 goals at 1.67, both teams to score no at 1.73, the half-time draw at 2.1 and over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.4 all ask for more than the form supports.

Context

Badía was confirmed as Haiti's head coach on 4 September and had not taken charge of a match before this window, so the team's shape, captain and starting XI are being set by a coach with no prior games for the national side. His first squad, published on 17 September, leans on players based in Europe and the United States and excludes several members of the 2026 World Cup group, which makes Haiti's line-up harder to project than a settled team's. Trinidad and Tobago are also early in their own rebuild under Derek King, so both teams arrive with unsettled selections. The limitation is that no confirmed XI has been published for either side, so the plans behind the squad lists remain unknown.
- Samuel Vargas reported on 4 September that David Badía had been appointed Haiti head coach, having previously coached Lechia Gdańsk in Poland, and the Haitian federation published his first squad for the 2026/27 Concacaf Nations League on 17 September.
- Vivelo Media reported that Badía's first list brought first call-ups for Jonah Mednard and Kenny Quetant, with François Dulysse, Fafà Picault and Dany Jean returning.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 14:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Paugain was part of Haiti's 2026 World Cup group and is reported by Haiti-Tempo on 20 September to be injured and absent from the squad for this window. His unavailability matters because Haiti are already rebuilding their defence around a new head coach, and the fixtures in this window are their first competitive matches since the World Cup. The reporting does not name the injury or give a recovery timeline, so it is unclear whether he could return later in the four-match window rather than sit out all of it.
- Haiti-Tempo reported on 20 September that defender Wilguens Paugain is injured and is not in the new Haiti squad for the window.
- The same report listed Paugain among seven members of Haiti's 2026 World Cup squad who are missing from the first list under David Badía.
- W. Paugain started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 14:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Thermoncy was in Haiti's 2026 World Cup squad and is reported injured and omitted from the first selection by new head coach David Badía. Losing a second defender from that group affects how quickly Haiti can field a settled back line in their opening competitive match since the World Cup, against opponents who have named a squad light on domestic-based players. The report gives no diagnosis or expected return date, so it is not clear whether this is a single-match absence or covers the whole window.
- Haiti-Tempo reported on 20 September that defender Kéto Thermoncy is injured and not included in Haiti's squad for the Concacaf Nations League window.
- The report grouped Thermoncy with other 2026 World Cup squad members missing from David Badía's first list.
- K. Thermoncy started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 14:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Nazon is described in the reporting as Haiti's all-time leading scorer with 44 international goals, and he is absent from the first squad named by new head coach David Badía, so Haiti's attack for this fixture will be built from the forwards he selected instead. Nazon had also just signed for Al-Nasr Benghazi on 19 September, and reporting around the move notes he had played very little for Esteghlal Tehran before it. No reason has been given for the omission, and the surrounding coverage points to his club situation rather than a confirmed fitness problem, so the decision's basis is less clear than the absence itself.
- Haiti-Tempo, Vivelo Media and Le transnational each reported that Duckens Nazon was omitted from the Haiti squad published on 17 September for this Nations League window.
- Haiti Sport Universel and Le Quotidien 509 reported on 19 September that the 32-year-old had signed for Libyan first-division club Al-Nasr Benghazi after leaving Esteghlal Tehran.
- D. Nazon started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- F. Pierrot started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when D. Nazon did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 14:46 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.40fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 71.4%

−8.4ppshort

Combined first-half scoring across both teams points to roughly one goal before the break on average.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.73fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 57.8%

−0.8ppshort

At least one side is regularly held scoreless in these fixtures, with Haiti particularly hard to score against at home.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

−4.9ppshort

Haiti's home games have been tight and low-scoring, and Trinidad and Tobago are often kept out on the road.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Haiti

1.78fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 56.2%

−11.2ppshort

Haiti have the stronger recent home results and a mean home defence, while Trinidad and Tobago have won once in seven away matches.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.10fair 2.27

BetBugs 44% · Market 47.6%

−3.6ppshort

Both teams start slowly and Trinidad and Tobago in particular rarely score before half-time.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.78
The read
Haiti have the stronger recent home results and a mean home defence, while Trinidad and Tobago have won once in seven away matches.
- Haiti's home competitive record in the window: 2W-1D-1L, 0.25 goals conceded per game, three clean sheets in four
- Trinidad and Tobago away record: 1W-2D-4L, conceding 2.14 goals per away match
- Haiti beat Costa Rica 1-0 and Nicaragua 2-0 at home in the last qualifying window
- Trinidad and Tobago's latest outing was a 1-4 loss to Venezuela
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHaitiEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Both teams start slowly and Trinidad and Tobago in particular rarely score before half-time.
- Trinidad and Tobago average 0.36 first-half goals, scoring at half-time in only a minority of matches
- Trinidad and Tobago's first-half goals against average is 0.64
- Three of Haiti's last six matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Haiti have the stronger recent home results and a mean home defence, while Trinidad and Tobago have won once in seven away matches. Trinidad and Tobago have drawn more than half their recent competitive games and the last meeting between the sides finished level.
- Haiti's home competitive record in the window: 2W-1D-1L, 0.25 goals conceded per game, three clean sheets in four
- Trinidad and Tobago away record: 1W-2D-4L, conceding 2.14 goals per away match
- Trinidad and Tobago drew 6 of 11 competitive matches in the window
- Haiti drew 3 of 11 competitive matches and 1 of 4 at home
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHaiti or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Haiti score more often before the break than Trinidad and Tobago, who rarely lead at half-time. Both teams start slowly and Trinidad and Tobago in particular rarely score before half-time.
- Haiti average 0.73 first-half goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 competitive matches
- Trinidad and Tobago average 0.36 first-half goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 11
- Trinidad and Tobago average 0.36 first-half goals, scoring at half-time in only a minority of matches
- Trinidad and Tobago's first-half goals against average is 0.64
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHaiti or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Haiti's home games have been tight and low-scoring, and Trinidad and Tobago are often kept out on the road.
- Haiti's home matches in the window: 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game
- Haiti's last three home matches finished 0-1, 2-0 and 1-0
- Trinidad and Tobago failed to score in three of seven away matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
At least one side is regularly held scoreless in these fixtures, with Haiti particularly hard to score against at home.
- Haiti kept three clean sheets in four home matches and both teams scored in none of them
- Trinidad and Tobago failed to score in three of seven away matches
- Trinidad and Tobago kept one clean sheet in seven away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Combined first-half scoring across both teams points to roughly one goal before the break on average.
- Haiti's first-half goals for and against averages are 0.73 and 1.09 across 11 matches
- Trinidad and Tobago's first-half goals for and against averages are 0.36 and 0.64
- Haiti conceded three first-half goals to Brazil and three to Honduras
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring rates are low enough that fewer than two goals after the break is the likelier outcome.
- Haiti's home second-half record is 0 goals for and 0 against in four matches
- Haiti's second-half goals against average is 0.45 across 11 matches
- Trinidad and Tobago average 0.71 second-half goals scored
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trinidad and Tobago's matches generate corners at a rate that carries the combined total above eight and a half.
- Trinidad and Tobago average 10.1 total corners across their tracked matches
- Haiti average 8.6 total corners across 11 competitive matches
- Trinidad and Tobago's away matches average 4.5 corners for and 5.67 against
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trinidad and Tobago's matches tend to produce around ten shots on target, just above the line.
- Trinidad and Tobago's matches average 9.8 shots on target combined across ten matches with data
- Haiti's matches average 8.1 shots on target combined across 11 competitive matches
- Trinidad and Tobago's away matches average 4.33 for and 5.67 against on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card totals in these teams' matches have mostly stayed below four, and both sides average under two yellows.
- Trinidad and Tobago's away matches average 1.5 yellow cards for and 1.67 against
- Haiti's home matches average 2.33 yellow cards for and 2.33 against in three matches with data
- Haiti's competitive card data covers only nine of 11 matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 0W

D1-1Trinidad and TobagovHaitiJun 19, 2025CON

W4-3HaitivTrinidad and TobagoJan 8, 2017CAR

D0-0HaitivTrinidad and TobagoDec 7, 2012CAR

Haiti unbeaten in 3 meetings3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Haiti

L2-4MoroccoJun 24WOR

L0-3BrazilJun 20WOR

L0-1ScotlandJun 14WOR

L1-2PeruJun 6FRI

W4-0New ZealandJun 3FRI

D1-1IcelandMar 31FRI

L0-1TunisiaMar 29FRI

W2-0NicaraguaNov 19WOR

W1-0Costa RicaNov 14WOR

L0-3HondurasOct 14WOR

W3-0NicaraguaOct 10WOR

D3-3Costa RicaSep 10WOR

D0-0HondurasSep 6WOR

L1-2USAJun 22CON

D1-1Trinidad and TobagoJun 19CON

Trinidad and Tobago

L0-1Louisville CityJul 26FRI

L0-3RussiaJun 9FRI

L0-5South KoreaMay 31FRI

L1-4VenezuelaMar 27FIF

L0-3BoliviaMar 15FRI

D2-2BermudaNov 19WOR

D1-1JamaicaNov 14WOR

D1-1CuraçaoOct 14WOR

W3-0BermudaOct 10WOR

L0-2JamaicaSep 10WOR

D0-0CuraçaoSep 6WOR

D1-1Saudi ArabiaJun 22CON

D1-1HaitiJun 19CON

L0-5USAJun 15CON

L1-2Costa RicaJun 11WOR

Squad & Injuries

Haiti

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Trinidad and Tobago

37 available

Attackers8

Midfielders14

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3