Girona2Albacete0

HT 2–0Fri 25 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 18–20On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Girona are fourth and Albacete bottom with one point from six, yet Girona have won only one of their five tracked home matches and are missing Bryan Gil plus five internationals.

Girona remain the likelier winner. The prices worth considering are on Albacete's side: Albacete to win or draw at 2.5, and Albacete to win at 5.25. Girona at 1.48 and both teams to score at 1.67 ask for more than the form supports.

Context

The list of absentees comes from a journalist who covers the club, who narrowed it after Ghana left Mumin out of their two friendlies and Spain's Under-21 side did not call Boñar or Izan. The players lost sit in the wide and forward areas, and a Girona-focused account notes that the options left there for this match and the trip to Mallorca are Carles Pérez and Portu, who has just returned from a serious injury. That leaves reserve cover or a change of shape as the likely response in the parts of the pitch where Girona usually create. The call-ups themselves are settled; how the replacements cope, and whether Portu can carry a full workload, are not.
- Girona lose Junior, Pyshchur, Vanat, Asprilla and Lass for matchday seven against Albacete and matchday eight against Mallorca because of international call-ups (19 September 2026).
- Ghana did not call Mumin for their two friendlies and Spain Under-21 did not call Boñar or Izan, narrowing the absentees to those five players (19 September 2026).
- Colombia called up Asprilla, leaving Carles Pérez and Portu, recently back from a serious injury, as the wide options for the Albacete and Mallorca fixtures (18 September 2026).
ReportedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Albacete's defence has been the sharpest problem of a start that has produced one point from six games, and the availability list circulating around the club names four of their eight defenders as injured. One of them, Javi Moreno, was taken off after 65 minutes of the Córdoba defeat with discomfort, which supports the wider picture. If that list holds, the coach must again choose between shuffling the back line and using younger cover at Montilivi. It comes from club-watching accounts rather than a published medical bulletin, so the exact defensive unit available on Friday remains open.
- A club-watching account listed Albacete's absentees on 19 September 2026 as four of eight defenders, naming Vallejo, Pepe, Lorenzo and Javi Moreno, with Rober and Munir also out and Puertas and Obeng facing months.
- Javi Moreno left the 18 September 2026 defeat to Córdoba after 65 minutes with discomfort, with Dani Bernabeu replacing him.
To watchSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Regional outlet clm24.es reported the decision to continue with Alberto González after the Córdoba defeat left Albacete with one point from six games. Staying with the same staff means preparation and selection for Montilivi remain in familiar hands rather than passing to a caretaker, and it makes this fixture the next reference point for a coach whose position had been publicly discussed. Whether the same approach produces a different performance away from the Belmonte is the practical question. The report is a regional outlet's reading rather than a club statement, so how firm the commitment is beyond this match is not established.
- Regional outlet clm24.es reported on 20 September 2026 that Albacete are keeping Alberto González despite the difficult start to the season.
- The 1-2 home defeat to Córdoba on 18 September 2026 left Albacete with one point from six league games.
ReportedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Girona's medical update confirmed the right-hamstring injury Bryan Gil picked up ten minutes into the Castellón match, and one of the club's regular reporters added that Jastin, Portu and Unai, the other players who cover the same left-sided attacking role, are out as well. With Asprilla also away on international duty, the wide positions have to be filled from a thinner pool than the club planned with. That is the kind of shortage that changes a starting eleven or pulls reserve players into a matchday squad. Gil's return has no date attached, so it is not yet clear whether this is a one-match problem or a longer reshaping.
- Girona confirmed a muscle injury to Bryan Gil's right hamstring, sustained ten minutes into the 12 September 2026 home defeat to Castellón.
- A Girona journalist reported that Jastin, Portu and Unai are also out, the other players who cover the same left-sided attacking role.
- No return date was published with the club's statement.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:27 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Girona are clearly the stronger side at home against a bottom-placed opponent with one point, although their own home record is modest and several attackers are missing.
- Girona are 4th with 10 points from 6 league games; Albacete are 21st with 1 point from 6.
- Albacete's away split in this window is 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
- Girona are without Bryan Gil and five international call-ups, thinning the wide and forward options.
- Girona's five home matches in this window produced one win, three draws and one loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGironaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes the interval draw the single most likely first-half result.
- Both teams average 0.56 first-half goals for and 0.56 against.
- Girona were level at half-time in two of their last six; Albacete in two of six.
- Combined first-half scoring averages about 1.1 goals per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Girona do most of their scoring after the break and Albacete concede more in second halves, pointing to a home edge in that period.
- Girona average 1.0 second-half goals and concede 0.67; Albacete score 0.44 and concede 0.89.
- Girona scored four second-half goals in the 5-2 home win over Las Palmas.
- Albacete have trailed at half-time in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGironaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Girona are clearly the stronger side at home against a bottom-placed opponent with one point, although their own home record is modest and several attackers are missing. Girona's home games have been tight and low-margin, so a single-goal or scoreless stalemate is a realistic outcome.
- Girona are 4th with 10 points from 6 league games; Albacete are 21st with 1 point from 6.
- Albacete's away split in this window is 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
- Girona have drawn 3 of their 5 home matches in this window.
- Albacete drew 1-1 at Granada and have one point from six league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGirona or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Girona have started strongly in most recent matches while Albacete often go behind early, though first halves are usually tight. Low first-half scoring on both sides makes the interval draw the single most likely first-half result.
- Girona led at half-time in four of their last six matches.
- Both teams average 0.56 first-half goals for and 0.56 against.
- Girona were level at half-time in two of their last six; Albacete in two of six.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGirona or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals6 of 9 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Albacete's low away scoring and Girona's missing forwards point to a moderate rather than high goal count.
- Albacete's away matches average 2.2 total goals and their last six average 2.3.
- Girona have scored 1.8 at home but face a short-handed attack.
- Albacete have scored four league goals in six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Girona concede regularly at home and Albacete score in most away games, so both teams finding the net is a fair outcome.
- Both teams scored in all five of Girona's home matches and in 7 of 9 overall.
- Albacete scored in 3 of 5 away matches.
- Girona have one clean sheet in nine competitive matches, none at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Girona's wide and forward options reduced, a single home goal or none is a plausible outcome.
- Girona scored 1, 5 and 1 in their three most recent home matches.
- Girona's home attack is without Bryan Gil and several other wide options.
- Albacete concede 1.4 away goals per game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGirona under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albacete's away goal output is consistently under two, and their overall scoring rate is the lowest in the fixture.
- Albacete average 0.8 away goals, 4 in 5 matches.
- They have four goals in six league games.
- They scored twice in only one of five away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAlbacete under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's home matches have all produced at least one goal for the visitors, making a home shutout the less likely side.
- Girona have no home clean sheets in five matches.
- Both teams scored in all five of Girona's home matches.
- Albacete scored in 3 of 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAlbacete to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albacete's record shows they concede in every match, and Girona score at home in essentially every game.
- Albacete have zero clean sheets in nine competitive matches.
- Girona scored in all five home matches and in 8 of 9 overall.
- Albacete concede 1.4 per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGirona to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
At least one first-half goal is the more likely outcome given Girona's early scoring pattern and the two teams' combined first-half rate.
- Combined first-half scoring across both teams averages about 1.1 goals per match.
- Three of the two teams' last 12 matches finished the first half goalless.
- Girona scored in the first half of four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Neither side regularly scores before half-time and rarely do both together, making the no side clearly stronger.
- 0 of the last 12 combined matches had first-half goals for both teams.
- Girona average 0.56 first-half goals for and against.
- Albacete average 0.56 first-half goals for and 0.56 against.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Albacete's very low second-half scoring keeps the period under two goals more often than not.
- Combined second-half scoring averages about 1.5 goals per match.
- Albacete have scored 0.44 second-half goals per game.
- Albacete's away split shows 0.4 second-half goals for and 0.75 against.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Albacete's away games and their opponents' corner counts point to a total near ten, just above the line.
- Girona average 4.4 corners and concede 3.7; Albacete average 5.3 and concede 5.8.
- Albacete's away matches average 11.4 corners; Girona's home matches 8.2.
- Albacete's league matches have produced high corner counts in recent weeks.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%