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Predictions graded

Georgia0Northern Ireland1

HT 0–0Fri 25 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1127%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 11–12On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 9–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 15:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Georgia's home scoring record against Northern Ireland's poor away form in a Tbilisi opener played behind closed doors, with Georgia the more likely winners but five defeats in their last six competitive matches making this close.

The 1.80 on a Georgia win asks too much; the draw or a Northern Ireland win at 2.00 and three or more goals at 1.91 are the prices that offer something.

Context

The sanction was already in place when the Georgian football federation issued its statement on 2 September, three weeks before kick-off. A closed stadium removes the crowd effect that normally accompanies Georgia's home fixtures in Tbilisi, narrowing the gap between a home match and a neutral one even though the fixture remains nominally Georgia's. Limited exceptions apply, including children from local football schools and supporters who booked travel before the announcement, so the ground will not be entirely empty. The material reviewed does not explain the offence behind the sanction, and the size of any permitted group is not specified.
- Georgian Footy reported that the Georgian Football Federation issued a statement confirming the Nations League clash between Georgia and Northern Ireland would be held behind closed doors.
- The same report said UEFA's disciplinary regulations allow children aged 10-14 from local football schools to attend the fixture for free.
- The Belfast Telegraph published a feature on Northern Ireland supporters travelling to follow the match behind closed doors in Georgia.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Georgia's squad was published on 17 September and the change came within a day of that list going public. Losing a defender removes an option from the group that opens a four-match window in Tbilisi, and the replacement arrives from a different league with the squad already assembling. The report comes from a Georgia-focused outlet rather than the national federation, and the extent of the injury has not been described, so it is not established whether Azarov could rejoin the squad later in the window.
- Georgian Footy reported Georgia's first squad change for these Nations League matches, with Saba Kharebashvili replacing Irakli Azarov after the defender suffered an injury in a cup fixture the previous day.
- Shakhtar Donetsk's English account had posted Azarov's call-up for the fixtures against Northern Ireland, Ukraine and Hungary the day before.
- I. Azarovi started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:02 · Europe/Bucharest
O'Neill's update came in the first week of September, before the squad for this window was named, and it places Bradley's return around 2027 rather than in these four matches. The absence is therefore a fixed condition of the trip to Tbilisi rather than a fresh setback, and it leaves one fewer defensive option for the opener. The public comments give a timescale without a confirmed return date, so precisely when Bradley is available again remains open.
- Michael O'Neill told BBC Sport NI that Conor Bradley was making good progress in his recovery from injury.
- Reporting of O'Neill's comments in early September said a return before Christmas would be a 'real bonus' for the defender, with the March international window the alternative and his recovery managed carefully.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Both squads were named for the same block of four matches, and the Tbilisi opener is the first of two meetings with the same opponent inside eleven days. Recovery and rotation can therefore be planned across the pair rather than around a single game, and the result in Georgia frames the rest of a group that also contains Hungary and Ukraine. No probable line-up has been reported for either team, so how the two managers treat the double-header is an open question rather than a documented plan.
- The International Window listed Georgia's four fixtures for this window as Northern Ireland and Ukraine at home and Hungary and Northern Ireland away.
- dufcway listed Northern Ireland's matches as Georgia away on 25 September and the return against Georgia on 5 October, with Hungary and Ukraine in between.
- BBC Sport NI described O'Neill's squad as preparing for their Nations League return away to Georgia.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:02 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.91fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 52.4%

−0.4ppshort

Georgia's defence concedes goals at home and Northern Ireland have shown they can score away, making both teams finding the net likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.80
The read
Georgia have more attacking talent and a stronger home scoring record, while Northern Ireland's away form is poor, though the closed-doors setting reduces home advantage.
- Georgia home competitive: 2W 0D 2L, 2.75 goals scored per home match.
- Northern Ireland away competitive: 1W 1D 3L, 1.8 goals conceded per away match.
- Georgia's last six competitive matches: 1W 5L, with the win a 3-0 home victory over Bulgaria.
- Northern Ireland are without defender Conor Bradley for the trip.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGeorgiaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Georgia tend to start strongly at home, while Northern Ireland are cautious early away, making a Georgia half-time lead plausible.
- Georgia home first half: 1.75 goals scored, 1.25 conceded per match.
- Northern Ireland away first half: 0.6 goals scored, 0.4 conceded per match.
- Georgia scored in the first half in one of their last three home matches.
- Northern Ireland have not scored in the first half in three of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostGeorgiaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Northern Ireland tend to concede after the break on their travels, and Georgia often finish stronger at home.
- Georgia home second half: 1.0 scored, 0.75 conceded per match.
- Northern Ireland away second half: 0.6 scored, 1.4 conceded per match.
- Northern Ireland conceded second-half goals in three of their last six competitive matches.
- Georgia scored second-half goals in four of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGeorgiaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Georgia have more attacking talent and a stronger home scoring record, while Northern Ireland's away form is poor, though the closed-doors setting reduces home advantage. With both teams struggling for consistent results and no home crowd, a tight draw is plausible.
- Georgia home competitive: 2W 0D 2L, 2.75 goals scored per home match.
- Northern Ireland away competitive: 1W 1D 3L, 1.8 goals conceded per away match.
- Georgia have drawn 0 of their last 9 competitive matches, but that is a small sample.
- Northern Ireland have drawn 1 of their last 8 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGeorgia or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Georgia tend to start strongly at home, while Northern Ireland are cautious early away, making a Georgia half-time lead plausible. Both teams have shown they can be level at the break, and a cautious start could lead to a half-time draw.
- Georgia home first half: 1.75 goals scored, 1.25 conceded per match.
- Northern Ireland away first half: 0.6 goals scored, 0.4 conceded per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGeorgia or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Georgia's home games tend to be high-scoring, and their defence concedes regularly, pointing to at least three goals.
- Georgia home competitive matches average 4.75 total goals (2.75 scored, 2.0 conceded).
- Northern Ireland away competitive matches average 3.0 total goals (1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded).
- Georgia's last six competitive matches produced over 2.5 goals in five of six.
- Northern Ireland's last six competitive matches produced over 2.5 goals in one of six.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Georgia's defence concedes goals at home and Northern Ireland have shown they can score away, making both teams finding the net likely.
- Georgia home competitive: both teams scored in 2 of 4 matches.
- Northern Ireland away competitive: both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches.
- Georgia conceded 2.0 goals per home match, while Northern Ireland scored 1.2 per away match.
- Northern Ireland scored in one of their last three away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Georgia have a strong home scoring record and face a Northern Ireland defence that concedes regularly on the road.
- Georgia scored 2.75 goals per home competitive match.
- Georgia scored 2 or more in two of their last three home competitive matches.
- Georgia's overall competitive goals per match is 1.89.
- Northern Ireland concede 1.8 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGeorgia over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Northern Ireland's away scoring is limited, and they have struggled to score multiple goals against stronger opposition.
- Northern Ireland away competitive: 1.2 goals scored per match.
- Northern Ireland scored 1 or 0 in each of their last three away matches.
- Georgia kept a clean sheet in one of their last four home competitive matches.
- Northern Ireland scored one or fewer goals in five of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNorthern Ireland under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches often produce at least one first-half goal, especially Georgia at home.
- Georgia home first half: 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded, averaging 3.0 total first-half goals.
- Northern Ireland away first half: 0.6 scored and 0.4 conceded, averaging 1.0 total first-half goals.
- Georgia's last six competitive matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Northern Ireland's last six competitive matches saw first-half goals in four of six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced second-half goals, and Northern Ireland concede regularly after the break.
- Georgia home second half total goals average 1.75 (1.0 scored, 0.75 conceded).
- Northern Ireland away second half total goals average 2.0 (0.6 scored, 1.4 conceded).
- Georgia's last six competitive matches produced over 1.5 second-half goals in two of six.
- Northern Ireland's last six competitive matches produced over 1.5 second-half goals in two of six.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages sit just below the line, suggesting under 8.5 is slightly more likely.
- Georgia home total corners average 7.5 per match.
- Northern Ireland away total corners average 8.0 per match.
- Georgia's last six competitive matches: total corners 8 or fewer in three of six.
- Northern Ireland's last six competitive matches: total corners 8 or fewer in three of six.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches often feature plenty of shots, and the combined averages are near the line.
- Georgia home total shots average 21.0 per match (13.0 for, 8.0 against).
- Northern Ireland away total shots average 19.8 per match (8.0 for, 11.8 against).
- Georgia's last six competitive matches produced over 20.5 total shots in three of six.
- Northern Ireland's last six competitive matches produced over 20.5 total shots in four of six.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Northern Ireland's recent matches have featured few shots on target, pulling the combined average below the line.
- Georgia home total shots on target average 8.5 per match.
- Northern Ireland away total shots on target average 7.2 per match.
- Georgia's last six competitive matches: under 7.5 shots on target in three of six.
- Northern Ireland's last six competitive matches: under 7.5 shots on target in five of six.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages sit below the line, and Georgia's home games have been relatively clean.
- Georgia home total cards average 4.5 per match.
- Northern Ireland away total cards average 3.8 per match.
- Georgia's last six competitive matches: under 4.5 cards in four of six.
- Northern Ireland's last six competitive matches: under 4.5 cards in two of six.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Georgia Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
4	Northern Ireland Relegation	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Georgia leads the leagueNorthern Ireland leads the leagueGeorgia in relegation zoneNorthern Ireland in relegation zone

Recent Form

Georgia

W2-0BahrainJun 5FRI

D1-1RomaniaJun 2FRI

W2-0LithuaniaMar 29FRI

D2-2IsraelMar 26FRI

L1-2BulgariaNov 18WOR

L0-4SpainNov 15WOR

L1-4TürkiyeOct 14WOR

L0-2SpainOct 11WOR

W3-0BulgariaSep 7WOR

L2-3TürkiyeSep 4WOR

D1-1Cape Verde IslandsJun 8FRI

W1-0Faroe IslandsJun 5FRI

W6-1ArmeniaMar 23UEF

W3-0ArmeniaMar 20UEF

L1-2CzechiaNov 19UEF

Northern Ireland

L1-3FranceJun 8FRI

W1-0GuineaJun 4FRI

D1-1WalesMar 31FRI

L0-2ItalyMar 26WOR

W1-0LuxembourgNov 17WOR

L0-1SlovakiaNov 14WOR

L0-1GermanyOct 13WOR

W2-0SlovakiaOct 10WOR

L1-3GermanySep 7WOR

W3-1LuxembourgSep 4WOR

W1-0IcelandJun 10FRI

L1-2DenmarkJun 7FRI

L1-5SwedenMar 25FRI

D1-1SwitzerlandMar 21FRI

D2-2LuxembourgNov 18UEF

Squad & Injuries

Georgia

30 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Northern Ireland

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Draw or Northern Ireland

Yes

Georgia

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 4 landed

League Table

Recent Form

Georgia

Northern Ireland

Squad & Injuries

Georgia

Northern Ireland