Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean
Over 2.5
2.10fair 1.92
Market 47.6% · BetBugs 52%
+4.4ppedge
Both teams' home and away goal rates sit above this line, and Curaçao's away matches have produced heavy scorelines.
CONCACAF Nations League·Full time·Featured
Predictions graded
Costa Rica33 – 4
Curacao4
HT 3–0· · Predictions graded
Predictions5–550%
Edges3–260%
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Costa Rica begin a rebuilt Nations League campaign at home against a Curaçao side that has won once in eight away matches, though the hosts are missing Navas, Ugalde and Campbell and have scored little of late.
Costa Rica are the likelier winners, and the 1.78 for a home win plus the 2.1 for over 2.5 goals both carry a small edge. The 1.7 for both teams not to score and the 1.4 for a first-half goal ask more than the record supports.
Context
Advocaat confirmed the withdrawal himself at the press conference that opened the window, so this is a squad fact rather than speculation, and his public rebuke shows the disagreement is about the working relationship rather than form. Curaçao must plan the opener around the rest of a 23-man group that also covers three further matches in the same window, and the episode is an unwanted distraction in the first week of a new cycle. One loose end remains: a Curaçao-based outlet had listed Hansen among injured players a fortnight earlier, so fitness may also be part of the picture. What the coach does not dispute is that he does not expect Hansen in Costa Rica.
- Advocaat said at his pre-window press conference that Hansen no longer wants to play for Curaçao for as long as he is the head coach.
- Dutch outlets including Voetbal International, De Telegraaf and AD reported the withdrawal, and Curaçao-based coverage carried Advocaat's blunt response that Hansen should have tried harder.
- Curaçao's window opens away to Costa Rica on 24 September and continues with three further matches, two of them at home.
- S. Hansen started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
Batista's account is that he tried to reach Navas and got no reply, and the goalkeeper's public answer turned a routine squad announcement into the story of the week in Costa Rica. Whoever starts in goal at the Saprissa does so in the first competitive match of a cycle begun after Costa Rica failed to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, with the squad built largely from the domestic league. The published list carries only three goalkeepers, and none of them arrives as a settled number one, so the choice is a live decision rather than a formality.
- Costa Rica's squad for the Curaçao, Haiti and Nicaragua fixtures, published on 21 September, lists goalkeepers Patrick Sequeira, Abraham Madriz and Bayron Mora and does not include Keylor Navas.
- Batista said he had tried to contact Navas and received no answer, and that this was why the goalkeeper was not in the squad.
- Navas answered publicly with an Instagram poll asking whether a coach should call a player directly or send a message, and the exchange dominated the days before the window opened.
The published list settles the practical point: Ugalde is not available for the opener, and Costa Rica's attacking options are now drawn from Josimar Alcócer, Carlos Mora, Orlando Sinclair and a group of domestic forwards. The federation's attempt to appeal the sanction was reported on 9 September, which indicates the absence is a suspension rather than an injury or a selection call. Losing a striker of his standing, alongside Joel Campbell, is the clearest change to how Costa Rica can attack at the Saprissa.
- Costa Rica's list for the Curaçao fixture and the following October matches, published on 21 September, does not include Manfred Ugalde or Joel Campbell.
- On 9 September Fox Deportes Costa Rica reported that the federation would appeal a sanction against Ugalde in order to have him available for the Nations League.
- Curaçao-based coverage said Ugalde had been sent off in Costa Rica's last official World Cup qualifier and must serve further matches.
This is the first competitive window of the cycle begun after Costa Rica failed to reach the 2026 World Cup, and the list is the clearest signal yet of how Batista intends to work: three debutants and a majority of players drawn from the domestic league. With four fixtures in eleven days, rotation is likely, so the eleven that faces Curaçao may reveal more about who has impressed in training than about a settled first choice. The caveat is that the absences of regulars such as Ugalde, Campbell and Navas shaped the list as much as any deliberate change of direction.
- The squad named for the September and October dates includes three first-time senior call-ups: Yerlan Sosa, Mathias Elizondo and Claudio Montero.
- El Observador CR noted the list contained only six foreign-based players and asked whether that group would form the core of Batista's starting eleven.
- Teletica reported on 22 September that Batista had been in charge for seven months, and framed the window as the start of a new cycle after Costa Rica missed the 2026 World Cup.
Signal quality track record · Football
High Medium Low
Share of graded picks that landed, per signal quality.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 3
Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean
Costa Rica
1.78fair 1.67
Market 56.2% · BetBugs 60%
+3.8ppedge
Costa Rica's home results and Curaçao's weak away returns point to the hosts even with a rebuilt squad.
First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip
Costa Rica
2.40fair 2.33
Market 41.7% · BetBugs 43%
+1.3ppedge
Costa Rica's first-half scoring and defensive numbers are stronger than Curaçao's.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean
Over 0.5 goals in 1st half
1.40fair 1.52
BetBugs 66% · Market 71.4%
−5.4ppshort
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates make at least one goal before the break likely.
Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean
No
1.70fair 1.92
BetBugs 52% · Market 58.8%
−6.8ppshort
Curaçao's away scoring output is limited and Costa Rica's defence has been sound across the tracked window.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result2 of 5 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Costa Rica's home results and Curaçao's weak away returns point to the hosts even with a rebuilt squad.
- Costa Rica are unbeaten in six home matches (4W 2D), averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home
- Curaçao's away record is 1W 3D 4L with 2.0 goals conceded per away match
- Costa Rica are without Navas, the suspended Ugalde and Campbell, and named three first-time call-ups
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCosta RicaEstimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Costa Rica's first-half scoring and defensive numbers are stronger than Curaçao's.
- Costa Rica average 1.5 first-half goals at home and 0.5 conceded
- Costa Rica's overall first-half record is 1.09 scored and 0.36 conceded per match
- Curaçao average 0.62 first-half goals overall and 0.5 away
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonCosta RicaEstimated chance43%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica's second-half scoring and Curaçao's second-half conceding rates favour the hosts after the break.
- Costa Rica average 1.0 second-half goal at home and 1.0 conceded
- Curaçao concede 1.25 second-half goals per away match
- Costa Rica's overall second-half record is 1.09 scored and 0.64 conceded
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCosta RicaEstimated chance47%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica's home results and Curaçao's weak away returns point to the hosts even with a rebuilt squad. Costa Rica's recent scoring has been thin and Curaçao have shown they can hold out for scoreless results.
- Costa Rica are unbeaten in six home matches (4W 2D), averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home
- Curaçao's away record is 1W 3D 4L with 2.0 goals conceded per away match
- Five of Costa Rica's eleven competitive matches in the window finished level
- Costa Rica's last six include two 0-0 draws and a 0-1 defeat
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCosta Rica or DrawEstimated chance85%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica's first-half scoring and defensive numbers are stronger than Curaçao's. Neither side scores consistently before the break, with several recent first halves finishing level.
- Costa Rica average 1.5 first-half goals at home and 0.5 conceded
- Costa Rica's overall first-half record is 1.09 scored and 0.36 conceded per match
- Three of Costa Rica's last six matches were level at half-time, as were two of Curaçao's last six
- Costa Rica average 1.09 first-half goals and Curaçao 0.62
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCosta Rica or DrawEstimated chance85%
Goals3 of 5 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both teams' home and away goal rates sit above this line, and Curaçao's away matches have produced heavy scorelines.
- Costa Rica's home matches average 4.0 total goals (2.5 for, 1.5 against)
- Curaçao's away matches average 3.25 total goals (1.25 for, 2.0 against)
- Curaçao conceded five or more in two of their last six matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Curaçao's away scoring output is limited and Costa Rica's defence has been sound across the tracked window.
- Curaçao kept four clean sheets in eight away matches and failed to score in four of their last six
- Costa Rica kept four clean sheets in eleven competitive matches
- Costa Rica concede 1.0 goal per match across the window
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica's home scoring rate is comfortably above two goals and Curaçao's away defence has conceded heavily.
- Costa Rica average 2.5 goals per home match, with four and three in two recent home qualifiers
- Curaçao concede 2.0 goals per away match
- Costa Rica scored 15 goals across their six home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCosta Rica over 1.5Estimated chance55%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates make at least one goal before the break likely.
- Costa Rica average 1.5 first-half goals at home and 1.09 overall
- Curaçao's away matches average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.75 conceded
- A first-half goal arrived in three of Costa Rica's last six and four of Curaçao's last six
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Curaçao contribute little after the break and Costa Rica's recent second halves have often been quiet.
- Curaçao scored once in the second half across their last six matches
- Costa Rica's home second-half goals against average 1.0
- Curaçao's away second-half goals average 0.75
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%
Match stats0 of 0 landed
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' corner averages combine to just under this line.
- Costa Rica average 5.82 corners overall and concede 2.73
- Curaçao average 3.45 corners overall and concede 4.91
- Several recent Costa Rica matches had single-figure corner totals
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shot averages sit just below this line once Costa Rica's controlled home games are weighted in.
- Costa Rica average 15.9 shots and concede 9.5 overall
- Curaçao average 12.0 shots and concede 13.5 overall
- Costa Rica took only five and eight shots in two recent away qualifiers
BetBugs · Shots Over/Undernot gradableUnder 27.5Estimated chance53%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica's home shooting accuracy plus Curaçao's away concession rate reaches just above this line.
- Costa Rica average 7.17 shots on target at home and concede 3.17
- Curaçao average 4.83 shots on target away and concede 6.33
- Curaçao faced 15 shots on target against Ecuador
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance53%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' card averages combine just above this line, and recent competitive matches have been physical.
- Costa Rica average 2.1 yellow cards and their opponents 2.4
- Curaçao average 2.3 yellow cards and their opponents 2.1 away
- Recent Costa Rica matches produced seven and five cards in total
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees
Head-to-Head
1W · 1D · 0WW1-2CuraçaovCosta RicaCON
D0-0Costa RicavCuraçaoCON
1.5 goals/game avg
Recent Form
Costa Rica
L1-3ColombiaFRI
L0-5IranFRI
D2-2JordanFRI
D0-0HondurasWOR
L0-1HaitiWOR
W4-1NicaraguaWOR
D0-0HondurasWOR
D3-3HaitiWOR
D1-1NicaraguaWOR
D0-0MexicoCON
W2-1Dominican RepublicCON
W4-3SurinameCON
W2-1Trinidad and TobagoWOR
W8-0BahamasWOR
Curacao
L1-4ScotlandFRI
L1-5AustraliaFIF
L0-2ChinaFIF
D0-0JamaicaWOR
W7-0BermudaWOR
D1-1Trinidad and TobagoWOR
W2-0JamaicaWOR
W3-2BermudaWOR
D0-0Trinidad and TobagoWOR
L1-2HondurasCON
D1-1CanadaCON
Squad & Injuries
Costa Rica
34 availableAttackers8
Midfielders9
Defenders13
Goalkeeper4
Curacao
26 availableAttackers7
Midfielders8
Defenders8
Goalkeeper3