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Predictions graded

Ayr United0Stenhousemuir1

HT 0–1Fri 25 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges7–188%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Stenhousemuir arrive unbeaten at the top, Ayr have home advantage and a clean sweep of the head-to-head record.

Stenhousemuir's defence makes a tight, low-scoring game likely, with the visitors the stronger side in current form. Three reviewed prices offer something: Stenhousemuir to win at 3.1, Stenhousemuir to win or draw at 1.62, and both teams not to score at 1.8.

Context

Stenhousemuir were Naysmith's club until the summer, when he left for Somerset Park having taken them up, so Friday is a reunion as well as a league game and the clearest reason the two squads are linked beyond the table. Ayr's recruitment has already leaned on it, with Olly Whyte arriving from a loan spell under him at Stenhousemuir. The connection supplies no edge on its own: the Warriors are unbeaten and top of the division under a new manager, and the shared knowledge runs both ways.
- Ayr United describe Gary Naysmith as their gaffer and reference the promotion-winning Stenhousemuir team he managed last season.
- Naysmith told the Ayrshire Post that United are looking to build on a good early home record under their new manager.
- A Portuguese-language Scottish football account recorded that Stenhousemuir have impressed after two successive promotions and Naysmith's exit to Ayr.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Stenhousemuir were promoted at the end of last season and have started the Championship unbeaten, moving five points clear with a 1-0 win over Arbroath on 19 September. That turns a Friday trip to Somerset Park into a genuine test for an Ayr side that has only just ended a five-game winless league run. The caveat is margin: their recent league wins have been narrow 1-0 scorelines, and their only defeat since August was a 3-0 Premier Sports Cup loss to Hearts.
- Stenhousemuir's lead at the top of the Championship stood at five points after their 1-0 home win over Arbroath on 19 September.
- Arbroath's matchday post described their hosts as the newly promoted league leaders.
- Stenhousemuir's recent league wins include a 1-0 success at Livingston on 4 September and a 1-0 home win over Partick Thistle on 15 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Bartley took the Championship's August manager award after an unbeaten opening month of three wins and a draw, and his side has since beaten Partick Thistle and Arbroath. He is the manager Ayr must outmanoeuvre, and the award confirms the level his promoted squad has reached. The limit is timing: the honour covers August, and Stenhousemuir's only defeat since was a 3-0 Premier Sports Cup exit to Hearts on 11 September.
- Marvin Bartley was named William Hill Championship Manager of the Month for August after three wins and a draw in the opening month, plus a Premier Sports Cup victory over Motherwell.
- Livingston's owner said in September that Bartley had done an incredible job at Stenhousemuir, after Bartley's earlier spell managing Livingston.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest
O'Donnell took the Championship's August player award and then produced the long-range winner against Arbroath on 19 September, making him the most obvious source of threat in the side Ayr host. His shooting range from midfield is the detail Ayr must manage, particularly given their own recent problems defending dead balls. The counterpoint is scale: his output has come in narrow 1-0 wins, and most of Stenhousemuir's victories this season have been decided by a single goal.
- Lewis O'Donnell was named the Championship's Player of the Month for August, alongside Marvin Bartley's manager award.
- O'Donnell's long-range volley gave Stenhousemuir a 1-0 win over Arbroath on 19 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.10
The read
The league leaders have been the stronger team over a larger sample, winning away regularly while keeping clean sheets.
- Stenhousemuir top the Championship on 19 points from 7, form WWWWW
- Unbeaten away this season: 5 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses across the away split of 7 matches, 1.71 goals scored and 0.57 conceded
- 8 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches, conceding 0.60 per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonStenhousemuirEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Both teams concede little before the break, so the first half is often level.
- Stenhousemuir away first halves: 0.29 goals conceded per match
- Ayr home first halves: 0.4 goals conceded per match
- Ayr home first-half goals for: 1.2 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves in this fixture look low-scoring, with Stenhousemuir in particular rarely conceding after the break.
- Ayr home second halves total 1.4 goals per match
- Stenhousemuir away second halves total 0.86 goals per match
- Four of Stenhousemuir's last six matches were decided by a single goal
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a clean sweep of the head-to-head record keep Ayr firmly in the contest despite the visitors' better form. The league leaders have been the stronger team over a larger sample, winning away regularly while keeping clean sheets.
- Ayr home split this season: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 5, averaging 2.0 goals scored
- Ayr have won all five recorded head-to-head meetings, most recently 4-1 in July 2024
- Stenhousemuir top the Championship on 19 points from 7, form WWWWW
- Unbeaten away this season: 5 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses across the away split of 7 matches, 1.71 goals scored and 0.57 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAyr United or StenhousemuirEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams concede little before the break, so the first half is often level. Stenhousemuir score more before the break than after it on their travels, so an early lead is a realistic route.
- Stenhousemuir away first halves: 0.29 goals conceded per match
- Ayr home first halves: 0.4 goals conceded per match
- Stenhousemuir away first halves: 1.14 goals for per match
- Stenhousemuir overall first halves: 0.67 goals for, 0.27 against per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or StenhousemuirEstimated chance74%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Stenhousemuir's games are consistently low-scoring and their defence concedes rarely, which caps the likely goal count.
- Stenhousemuir's 15 competitive matches produced 20 goals in total, 1.33 per game
- Stenhousemuir away split: 1.71 scored, 0.57 conceded per match
- Ayr home split: 2.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both defences have been reliable, and Stenhousemuir in particular have kept opponents scoreless in more than half their games.
- Stenhousemuir have kept 8 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches
- Stenhousemuir league record: 2 goals against in 7 games
- Ayr have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors' defensive record is the strongest evidence in this match, and Ayr have managed only 7 league goals so far.
- Stenhousemuir away split: 0.57 goals conceded per match
- Stenhousemuir kept 8 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches
- Ayr's league record: 7 goals in 7 games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAyr United under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir's goals are spread thinly, with most wins built on a single strike rather than a high tally.
- Four of Stenhousemuir's last six matches featured one or zero goals for them or a single-goal margin
- Stenhousemuir league record: 11 goals in 7 games
- Ayr home split: 1.0 conceded per match across 5 games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonStenhousemuir under 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors have scored in nearly every fixture this season, making an Ayr clean sheet the less likely outcome.
- Stenhousemuir have scored 13 goals across 15 competitive matches
- Ayr have conceded in 8 of 12 competitive matches
- Stenhousemuir scored in 13 of those 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonStenhousemuir to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ayr's home scoring record makes it more likely than not that Stenhousemuir concede at least once.
- Ayr have scored in 10 of 12 competitive matches
- Ayr home split: 2.0 goals scored per match in 5 games
- Stenhousemuir conceded 3 to Hearts in the League Cup on 11 September
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAyr United to scoreEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Away clean-sheet wins are a small slice of all outcomes, and Ayr's home scoring record works against one here.
- Ayr have scored in 10 of 12 competitive matches
- Ayr home split: 2.0 goals scored per match in 5 games
- Stenhousemuir's away wins include 2-0 and 1-0 results
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both sides average well over one first-half goal between them, so a goal before the break is the more likely outcome.
- Ayr home first halves total 1.6 goals per match (1.2 for, 0.4 against)
- Stenhousemuir away first halves total 1.43 goals per match (1.14 for, 0.29 against)
- Both teams scored in the first half of their most recent league wins
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Neither defence gives much away early, and Stenhousemuir's first-half concession rate is very low.
- Ayr home first-half goals against: 0.4 per match
- Stenhousemuir overall first-half goals against: 0.27 per match
- Stenhousemuir have conceded only 2 league goals in 7 games
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede little after the break and Stenhousemuir's away games rarely produce multiple second-half goals.
- Stenhousemuir away second halves: 0.29 goals conceded per match
- Ayr home second halves: 0.6 goals conceded per match
- Ayr home second halves total 1.4 goals, Stenhousemuir's away total 0.86
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W1-4StenhousemuirvAyr UtdJul 23, 2024LEA

L1-0Ayr UtdvStenhousemuirJul 18, 2023LEA

L5-0Ayr UtdvStenhousemuirJul 24, 2018LEA

W0-4StenhousemuirvAyr UtdApr 16, 2016LEA

L4-1Ayr UtdvStenhousemuirMar 8, 2016LEA

Stenhousemuir: 2 clean sheets4 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Ayr United	7	2	2	3	7-8	8	WLLDL
1	Stenhousemuir Promotion - Premiership	7	6	1	0	11-2	19	WWWWW

11pt gap between teamsStenhousemuir leads the league

Recent Form

Ayr United

W2-0Queen's ParkSep 18CHA

L1-3Inverness CTSep 12CHA

L0-1PartickSep 5CHA

D1-1MortonAug 29CHA

L0-2Raith RoversAug 22CHA

L2-3KilmarnockAug 14LEA

D1-1DunfermlineAug 8CHA

W2-0ArbroathAug 1CHA

W4-1Alloa AthleticJul 25LEA

W2-0Edinburgh CityJul 18LEA

W1-0FalkirkJul 14LEA

W3-2StranraerJul 11LEA

W2-1Airdrie UnitedJul 4FRI

W3-0DumbartonJun 30FRI

W3-0Glenafton AthleticJun 27FRI

Stenhousemuir

W1-0ArbroathSep 19CHA

W1-0PartickSep 15CHA

L0-3Heart Of MidlothianSep 11LEA

W1-0LivingstonSep 4CHA

W3-1Inverness CTAug 29CHA

W2-0Queen's ParkAug 22CHA

W2-0MortonAug 8CHA

D1-1Raith RoversAug 1CHA

W2-1BrechinJul 18LEA

W2-0Forfar AthleticJul 11LEA

L0-1Alloa AthleticMay 16CHA

W3-1Alloa AthleticMay 13CHA

D1-1Queen of the SouthMay 5CHA

W2-0MontroseMay 2LEA

W1-0Alloa AthleticApr 25LEA

Squad & Injuries

Ayr United

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Stenhousemuir

26 available

Attackers3

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Stenhousemuir

Draw or Stenhousemuir

No

Draw or Stenhousemuir

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 2.5

Draw

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals8 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Ayr United

Stenhousemuir

Squad & Injuries

Ayr United

Stenhousemuir