Algeria33 – 1Zambia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Algeria's home defensive record and Zambia's weak scoring output make the hosts clear favourites in Tizi Ouzou.

• Algeria's last 11 competitive matches: 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, 1.73 scored and 1.18 conceded per game.
• Algeria's last 6 home competitive matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 0.83 conceded per game and 4 clean sheets.
• Zambia's last 11 competitive matches: 1 win, 3 draws, 7 defeats, 0.64 scored per game.
• The last meeting finished 3-3 in Zambia in March 2021; Algeria won 5-0 at home in 2019 qualifying.

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlgeriaEstimated chance60%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Algeria's stronger squad should tell after the break, though a second half starts level.

• Algeria average 0.83 second-half goals and concede 0.67 per home match.
• Zambia concede 1.0 second-half goals overall and 1.2 per away match.
• Algeria won 3 of their last 6 home competitive matches.

BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAlgeriaEstimated chance42%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Algeria's home defensive record and Zambia's weak scoring output make the hosts clear favourites in Tizi Ouzou. Algeria's modest home scoring and Zambia's habit of sitting deep keep a level result plausible.

• Algeria's last 11 competitive matches: 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, 1.73 scored and 1.18 conceded per game.
• Algeria's last 6 home competitive matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 0.83 conceded per game and 4 clean sheets.
• Zambia drew 3 of their last 11 competitive matches and 2 of their last 5 away.
• Algeria drew 2 of their last 6 home competitive matches and average 1.5 goals per home game.

BetBugs · Double ChancewonAlgeria or DrawEstimated chance85%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Algeria hold a small first-half edge at home, but Zambia's low first-half output limits the gap. Neither side scores much before the break, so a level first half is the most likely outcome.

• Algeria average 0.67 first-half goals and concede 0.17 per home match.
• Zambia average 0.09 first-half goals per competitive match.
• Zambia scored no first-half goals in their last 6 matches.
• Algeria average 0.67 first-half goals at home and 0.91 overall.

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAlgeria or DrawEstimated chance88%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Zambia's attack has produced at most one goal in each recent outing.

• Zambia scored 5 goals in 11 competitive matches (0.64 per game).
• Zambia scored 0 or 1 in all of their last 6 matches.
• Algeria kept 4 clean sheets in 6 home competitive matches.

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonZambia under 1.5Estimated chance85%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Algeria's recent habit of conceding makes a clean-sheet win less likely than not.

• Algeria conceded in all 6 of their most recent matches.
• Zambia scored in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
• Algeria kept 4 clean sheets in 6 home competitive matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Algeria's home first-half scoring gives a slight lean towards a goal before the break.

• Algeria's home first halves average 0.84 goals in total (0.67 for, 0.17 against).
• Zambia's competitive first halves average 0.64 goals in total (0.09 for, 0.55 against).
• Zambia scored no first-half goals in their last 6 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both sides' on-target totals clear the line across their tracked matches.

• Algeria's home matches average 7.25 shots on target in total (4.25 for, 3.0 against, 4 matches).
• Zambia's matches average 8.5 shots on target in total (4.0 for, 4.5 against, 4 matches).
• Algeria's overall matches average 7.88 shots on target in total (8 matches).