Africa Cup of Nations QualificationFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Sierra Leone2Zimbabwe3

HT 2–0Thu 24 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 9–16On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 2–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 13:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Zimbabwe's away troubles meet a Sierra Leone home record with no draws in six.

Sierra Leone are the more likely winner, though Zimbabwe scored in all three of their Africa Cup of Nations matches in December 2025. Four quoted prices offer something: Sierra Leone to win at 2.5, either side to win with the draw excluded at 1.43, both teams to score at 2.15 and over 2.5 goals at 2.63. Under 2.5 goals at 1.45 asks for more than the goal evidence supports.

Context

Four goals scored and four conceded across those six home matches, plus two clean sheets, describe tight games that someone always won. Any visiting side is meeting a home team that has not shared the points at home in this window. The sample is only six matches, so it is a shape rather than a rule, but it is a clear one.
- Six home matches from 15 October 2024 to 8 October 2025: three wins, no draws, three defeats.
- Four goals scored and four conceded in those six matches, with two clean sheets and both teams scoring in two.
The run covers roughly six months of competitive football and leaves Zimbabwe with only one clean sheet across the sample. They did take something from two of those games, so the record is poor rather than hopeless, but a win here would run against the pattern of the stretch. A sample of eight matches describes a period of form, not a permanent level.
- Eight competitive matches from 10 June to 29 December 2025: one win, two draws and five defeats.
- Zimbabwe kept one clean sheet across those eight matches.
Zimbabwe scored in both halves and still lost, with South Africa managing 16 shots to their 10 and nine on target to their three. It is a single match rather than a pattern, so it carries limited weight on its own. What it does show is a side that can find the net while still giving up enough chances to lose.
- 29 December 2025: Zimbabwe 2-3 South Africa, 1-1 at half-time, in the Africa Cup of Nations.
- Zimbabwe 10 shots and 3 on target; South Africa 16 shots and 9 on target; corners 3-3.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Sierra Leone have a better home win rate and Zimbabwe have struggled away, so Sierra Leone carry the strongest single match-winning chance.
- Sierra Leone home split: 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per home match.
- Zimbabwe away split: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses; 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded per away match.
- Zimbabwe overall: 1 win, 2 draws, 5 losses; 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match.
- No head-to-head matches in the supplied evidence.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSierra LeoneEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves often stay level, and neither side has a dominant first-half scoring edge across both views.
- Sierra Leone home first half: 0.50 scored and 0.33 conceded per match.
- Zimbabwe away first half: 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded per match.
- Both teams' first-half goal averages are close to one combined.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zimbabwe fade after half-time, scoring only 0.20 second-half goals away, while Sierra Leone are stronger at home after the break.
- Sierra Leone home second half: 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded per match.
- Zimbabwe away second half: 0.20 scored and 0.80 conceded per match.
- Zimbabwe overall second half: 0.25 scored and 0.75 conceded per match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSierra LeoneEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Sierra Leone have a better home win rate and Zimbabwe have struggled away, so Sierra Leone carry the strongest single match-winning chance. Zimbabwe's away win rate is low, but Sierra Leone have lost half their home matches and Zimbabwe have scored against stronger sides.
- Sierra Leone home split: 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per home match.
- Zimbabwe away split: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses; 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded per away match.
- Zimbabwe away: 1 win in 5, scoring 1.00 per away match.
- Sierra Leone home: 3 losses in 6, conceding 1.00 per home match.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSierra Leone or ZimbabweEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sierra Leone have a better overall first-half scoring rate, though Zimbabwe start away matches strongly. First halves often stay level, and neither side has a dominant first-half scoring edge across both views.
- Sierra Leone home first half: 0.50 scored and 0.33 conceded per match.
- Zimbabwe away first half: 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSierra Leone or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined scoring averages and recent match totals point to a slightly better chance of fewer than three goals.
- Sierra Leone overall: 1.15 scored and 1.38 conceded per match; combined 2.54.
- Zimbabwe overall: 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded per match; combined 2.13.
- Recent six matches: Sierra Leone had 3 over 2.5; Zimbabwe had 2 over 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Both teams have a moderate both-teams-score rate, especially Zimbabwe away, making a shared scoreline plausible.
- Sierra Leone overall: both teams scored in 8 of 13 matches.
- Zimbabwe overall: both teams scored in 4 of 8 matches.
- Zimbabwe away: both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches.
- Recent six: Sierra Leone both scored in 3; Zimbabwe both scored in 3.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sierra Leone's scoring average is closer to one than two, so staying under 1.5 is the more likely home total.
- Sierra Leone home: 1.17 goals scored per match.
- Sierra Leone overall: 1.15 goals scored per match.
- Recent six: Sierra Leone scored two or more in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSierra Leone under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zimbabwe's away and overall scoring rates make a two-goal haul unlikely.
- Zimbabwe away: 1.00 goals scored per match.
- Zimbabwe overall: 0.88 goals scored per match.
- Recent six: Zimbabwe scored two or more in 1 match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostZimbabwe under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sierra Leone's clean-sheet rate is modest, and Zimbabwe have found the net in most recent away outings.
- Sierra Leone home: 2 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Zimbabwe away: scored 3 goals in 5 matches, failing to score in 2.
- Sierra Leone overall: 2 clean sheets in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonZimbabwe to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zimbabwe's lack of away clean sheets and Sierra Leone's home scoring make a shutout unlikely.
- Zimbabwe away: 0 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Zimbabwe overall: 1 clean sheet in 8 matches.
- Sierra Leone home: scored 4 goals in 6 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSierra Leone to scoreEstimated chance84%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zimbabwe's away matches average over five total yellows, pushing the combined card count above 3.5.
- Zimbabwe away: 3.00 yellow cards and 2.33 opponent yellow cards per match.
- Sierra Leone home: 0.50 yellow cards and 1.50 opponent yellow cards per match.
- Zimbabwe overall: 2.50 yellow cards and 2.33 opponent yellow cards per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Recent Form

Sierra Leone

L1-3LiberiaJun 9FRI

W1-0LiberiaJun 6FRI

W2-1DjiboutiOct 12WOR

L0-1Burkina FasoOct 8WOR

W2-0EthiopiaSep 9WOR

D1-1Guinea-BissauSep 4WOR

L0-1EgyptMar 25WOR

W3-1Guinea-BissauMar 20WOR

L0-2ZambiaNov 19AFR

D1-1ChadNov 13AFR

D1-1LiberiaNov 1AFR

L1-2LiberiaOct 27AFR

W1-0Ivory CoastOct 15AFR

L1-4Ivory CoastOct 11AFR

L2-3ZambiaSep 10AFR

Zimbabwe

W1-0IndiaMay 30FRI

L0-2NigeriaMay 26FRI

W1-0Zambia U23Mar 31FRI

W3-0BotswanaMar 28FRI

L2-3South AfricaDec 29AFR

D1-1AngolaDec 26AFR

L1-2EgyptDec 22AFR

W2-1QatarNov 17FRI

L1-3AlgeriaNov 13FRI

L0-1LesothoOct 13WOR

D0-0South AfricaOct 10WOR

L0-1RwandaSep 9WOR

L0-1BeninSep 5WOR

D1-1NigerJun 10FRI

W3-1MozambiqueJun 10COS

Squad & Injuries

Sierra Leone

33 available

Attackers12

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Zimbabwe

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Sierra Leone or Zimbabwe

Sierra Leone

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Recent Form

Sierra Leone

Zimbabwe

Squad & Injuries

Sierra Leone

Zimbabwe