UEFA Nations LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Serbia1Greece2

HT 1–0Thu 24 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–944%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 9–26On targetOn target 4–9CornersCorners 2–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 09:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Serbia's home defence against a Greece team that has scored and conceded freely in recent qualifiers.

Serbia look the more likely winners, and a low-scoring game is the other lean, though Greece's 5-1, 3-2 and two 3-1 scorelines cut the other way. Serbia at 2.50 is about the right price; Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 and the reviewed half-time lines give nothing worth taking.

Context

Greece led 4-0 at half-time and finished with 30 shots, 14 of them on target. It is the high point of their attacking record and it pushes against a low-scoring reading of this fixture. The context matters: it came against Belarus, and three days later Greece lost 0-3 at home to Denmark, so the ceiling exists without being their normal level.
- 5 September 2025: Greece beat Belarus 5-1 at home in World Cup qualifying
- Greece led 4-0 at half-time from 30 shots, 14 of them on target
- Belarus had 11 shots and 4 on target in that match
Serbia were two goals down at half-time, mustered three shots and none on target, and finished with a red card as England racked up 24 attempts. It is the sharpest illustration of the risk in Serbia's home form when they meet stronger opposition, and it remains one match rather than a trend.
- 9 September 2025: Serbia lost 0-5 at home to England in World Cup qualifying
- Serbia were 0-2 down at half-time and finished with 3 shots and none on target
- England had 24 shots and 12 on target; Serbia picked up a red card
Serbia had 19 shots to Latvia's six and 13 corners, but the game was level at the break after they conceded in the first half. Both Serbia goals came after the interval. It is a single match, so treat it as an illustration rather than a trend; the point that matters is that Latvia kept Serbia out for the opening 45 minutes.
- 16 November 2025: Serbia beat Latvia 2-1 at home in World Cup qualifying, a match they trailed 0-1 at half-time
- Serbia had 19 shots, 7 on target, and 13 corners; Latvia had 6 shots and 4 on target
- Both Serbia goals came in the second half
Greece failed to convert 13 attempts, only three of which were on target, while Belarus managed just one shot on target in reply. It is the most recent match in the record and a single-game snapshot rather than a pattern of scoring trouble. It does show Greece can be held when they do not find a way through, which is the risk in backing them here.
- 18 November 2025: Greece drew 0-0 away to Belarus in World Cup qualifying
- Greece had 13 shots, 3 on target, and 6 corners; Belarus had 7 shots and 1 on target
- The fixture is the most recent of the six competitive Greece matches in the supplied record

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

−7.5ppshort

Combined first-half scoring around one goal per game makes at least one pre-break goal the likely outcome.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.70fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 58.8%

−5.8ppshort

Serbia's low scoring rate and habit of keeping clean sheets make a low total the slightly more likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Serbia's tighter defence and home record give them the best single-outcome chance in a close pair.
- Serbia competitive record: 5W-3D-3L in 11, 1.09 scored and 1.00 conceded per game
- Serbia at home: 3W-1D-2L in 6, 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded per game
- Greece competitive record: 4W-1D-4L in 9, 1.67 scored and 1.44 conceded per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSerbiaEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes the break level the single most likely state.
- Serbia average 0.36 first-half goals for and 0.64 against
- Greece average 0.78 first-half goals for and 0.56 against
- Serbia's recent first halves include 0-1, 0-1, 1-1 and 1-0 scorelines
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Serbia's second-half scoring is stronger than their first-half output while Greece concede after the break.
- Serbia average 0.73 second-half goals for and 0.36 against
- Greece average 0.89 second-half goals for and 0.89 against
- Serbia scored both goals after the break in the 2-1 win over Latvia
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSerbiaEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Serbia's tighter defence and home record give them the best single-outcome chance in a close pair. Greece score at a higher rate than Serbia and travel with a winning away record, so they are level with a home side in mixed form.
- Serbia competitive record: 5W-3D-3L in 11, 1.09 scored and 1.00 conceded per game
- Serbia at home: 3W-1D-2L in 6, 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded per game
- Greece competitive: 4W-1D-4L in 9, averaging 1.67 goals scored
- Greece away: 2W-1D-2L, conceding 2 goals across those away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSerbia or GreeceEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Serbia rarely score before the break, so a half-time lead needs an atypically fast start. Low first-half scoring on both sides makes the break level the single most likely state.
- Serbia average 0.36 first-half goals for and 0.64 against over 11 competitive matches
- Greece average 0.78 first-half goals for and 0.56 against over 9
- Serbia average 0.36 first-half goals for and 0.64 against
- Greece average 0.78 first-half goals for and 0.56 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSerbia or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Serbia's low scoring rate and habit of keeping clean sheets make a low total the slightly more likely outcome.
- Serbia have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Serbia's last 6 matches produced 3 goals scored and 5 conceded
- Greece have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Serbia's blank-heavy recent games and solid clean-sheet count make one team not scoring more likely.
- Serbia kept 5 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Serbia failed to score in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Greece kept 3 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Serbia's scoring output sits comfortably below two goals per game.
- Serbia average 1.09 goals per competitive match and 1.17 at home
- Serbia failed to score in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Serbia scored 1 or 0 goals in 5 of their last 6 games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSerbia under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Greece's away scoring sits near one goal per game and Serbia's defence is their stronger unit.
- Greece away average 1.4 goals per match
- Greece drew 0-0 away to Belarus and lost 3-1 in Denmark
- Serbia kept 5 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostGreece under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Greece's scoring record makes it more likely than not that Serbia concede at least once.
- Serbia conceded in 6 of 11 competitive matches
- Greece scored in 6 of 9 competitive matches
- Greece average 1.67 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGreece to scoreEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Serbia score in most matches, so Greece keeping a clean sheet is the less likely side of this line.
- Serbia average 1.09 goals per competitive match
- Greece conceded in 6 of 9 competitive matches
- Greece away conceded in 2 of 5 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSerbia to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A Serbia win with a clean sheet is a narrow combination given Greece's scoring rate.
- Serbia kept 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches
- Serbia conceded in 6 of 11 competitive matches
- Greece scored in 6 of 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Combined first-half scoring around one goal per game makes at least one pre-break goal the likely outcome.
- Serbia first halves average 1.0 total goals across their 11 competitive matches
- Greece first halves average 1.34 total goals across their 9
- Serbia's last six first halves produced goals in 4 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Serbia's low second-half concession rate points to a tighter closing period.
- Serbia average 0.73 second-half goals for and 0.36 against
- Serbia's recent second halves include 2-0, 0-1 and 0-0
- Greece average 0.89 second-half goals against
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner rates sit right on the line with recent matches running above it.
- Serbia average 6.0 corners for and 3.09 against per competitive match
- Greece average 5.67 corners for and 4.56 against per 9 competitive matches
- Serbia's recent home match produced 16 total corners and Greece's produced 18
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's matches reach 30 shots on average, with both totals sitting several shots below the line.
- Serbia matches average 14.18 shots for and 11.36 against, total 25.5
- Greece matches average 16.44 shots for and 10.11 against, total 26.6
- Serbia's last six matches averaged about 25 total shots; Greece's about 27
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 30.5Estimated chance72%

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Serbia Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
4	Greece Relegation	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Serbia leads the leagueGreece leads the leagueSerbia in relegation zoneGreece in relegation zone

Recent Form

Serbia

L1-5MexicoJun 5FRI

L0-3Cape Verde IslandsMay 31FRI

W2-1Saudi ArabiaMar 31FRI

L0-3SpainMar 27FRI

W2-1LatviaNov 16WOR

L0-2EnglandNov 13WOR

W3-1AndorraOct 14WOR

L0-1AlbaniaOct 11WOR

L0-5EnglandSep 9WOR

W1-0LatviaSep 6WOR

W3-0AndorraJun 10WOR

D0-0AlbaniaJun 7WOR

W2-0AustriaMar 23UEF

D1-1AustriaMar 20UEF

D0-0DenmarkNov 18UEF

Greece

L0-1ItalyJun 7FRI

D2-2SwedenJun 4FRI

D0-0HungaryMar 31FRI

L0-1ParaguayMar 27FRI

D0-0BelarusNov 18WOR

W3-2ScotlandNov 15WOR

L1-3DenmarkOct 12WOR

L1-3ScotlandOct 9WOR

L0-3DenmarkSep 8WOR

W5-1BelarusSep 5WOR

W4-0BulgariaJun 10FRI

W4-1SlovakiaJun 7FRI

W3-0ScotlandMar 23UEF

L0-1ScotlandMar 20UEF

W2-0FinlandNov 17UEF

Squad & Injuries

Serbia

41 available

Attackers10

Midfielders13

Defenders12

Goalkeeper6

Greece

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Serbia

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 2.5

Draw

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 9 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

League Table

Recent Form

Serbia

Greece

Squad & Injuries

Serbia

Greece